Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL)
Mid CapInfra stocks · Mid cap · NSE
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited (RVNL) is an infrastructure-focused company executing projects across rail infrastructure, metros, roads and highways, transmission, and port harbors. It primarily works for government entities and PSUs, focusing on project delivery and expanding business opportunities.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Weak fundamentals, management trust is acceptable, price trend argues for patience, and recent execution is mixed.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Good · 60/100Rev +11% YoY · PAT +19% YoY · margin expansion · operating leverage
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹4,321 Cr | +10.5% | -35.5% |
| EBITDA | ₹185 Cr | +249.1% | -31.2% |
| Operating margin | 4.3% | +290 bps | +30 bps |
| PAT | ₹160 Cr | +19.4% | -12.1% |
| PAT margin | 3.7% | +27 bps | +98 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Q4 FY26 revenue grew strongly QoQ and modestly YoY, but standalone EBITDA and PAT declined significantly QoQ and YoY due to onerous contracts and JV reconciliation adjustments, impacting profitability.
RVNL maintains a strong, diversified order book providing multi-year revenue visibility and demonstrated robust execution leading to revenue growth. However, significant margin erosion in Q4 FY26, attributed to specific contracts and adjustments, raises concerns. Management expects margin improvement in Q1 FY27, which requires close monitoring.
Order Book by Segment (as of Mar 31, 2026)
Latest issuer-disclosed distribution across 6 reported categories.
Strong and Diversified Order Book
Total order book of INR 99,262 crore provides healthy multiyear execution visibility.
Increased Execution from Bidding Works
Execution from bidding works increased by 129% from FY25 to FY26, reaching INR 6,283 crores.
Government Emphasis on Infrastructure
Continued government emphasis on relevant perceptual development supports long-term growth prospects.
Diversified Infrastructure Opportunities
Actively encouraging opportunities in diversified infrastructure and emerging business areas.
BharatNet Project
INR 13,236 crore project for 8,206 km OFC infrastructure, achieved 15.01% physical progress.
Rishikesh Karnaprayag Rail Project
INR 37,000 crore, 125-kilometer project achieved 74% overall progress, with 96% tunnel excavation complete. Target completion by Dec 2029.
Vande Bharat Sleeper Train Sets
INR 14,400 crore project with 35 years maintenance. First prototype train set targeted for launch in December 2026.
Government Infrastructure Push
Continued government emphasis on relevant perceptual development supports long-term growth prospects.
Strong JV and Subsidiary Performance
JVs and subsidiaries contributed INR 399.86 crore to consolidated revenue and INR 64.23 crore to PAT.
Positive MoU Rating
Achieved an MoU rating of 'very good' for FY25 from Department of Public Enterprises.
Market and Sectoral Headwinds
This year has been challenging for the company despite market and sectoral headwinds.
Profitability Pressure
UNDER_STRESSProfitability remained under pressure due to a few onerous contracts and reconciliation adjustments relating to joint ventures.
Cash Flow Challenges
Cash flow was a challenge due to INR 3,400 crores recoverable from Ministry of Railways, received in April.
Margin Pressure and Cost Burden
UNDER_STRESSPressure on margins and profitability remains a key area of concern, indicating increased cost burden during execution.
Receivables Management
UNDER_STRESSHigh receivables from Ministry of Railways and Krishnapatnam Railway Company pose a challenge to cash flow.
Execution Pace
Faster execution is a main challenge for achieving good revenue and margins.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Revenue shows strong sequential momentum (QoQ) indicating improved project activity, while YoY comparison provides a broader view of growth. Profitability declines are evident on both QoQ and YoY bases, highlighting sustained pressure.
Standalone Order Inflow (Q4 FY26)
INR 4,644 crores
Standalone Order Inflow (FY26)
INR 5,875 crores
Total Order Book (as of Mar 31, 2026)
INR 99,262 crore
Standalone Revenue Growth (Q4 FY26)
47.6% QoQ; 0.72% YoY
Revenue and Margin Outlook for FY27
Management expects revenue to rise by 15-20% and margins to definitely increase, being much better than this year.
Focus on Faster Execution
The team is focusing on faster and timely execution using latest technologies like 5G functions, drones, and software dashboards.
Strategic Bidding and Diversification
Strategy includes focusing on railway works, PMC basis works from other PSUs, and selective bidding for 5-10% profit.
Q1 FY27 Margin Improvement
Adjustment for onerous contracts has been done, and management is hopeful for improved margins in Q1 FY27.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Standalone EBITDA Margin | 5.83% (Q4 FY26) | Improvement towards previous levels (e.g., 10.36% in Q3 FY26) in Q1 FY27 as guided by management. |
| Receivables from Krishnapatnam Railway Company | INR 1,116 crores | Progress on resolution and recovery timeline, with management hoping for receivables to be wiped out in two years. |
| Vande Bharat Sleeper Train Prototype Launch | Targeted for December 2026 | On-time delivery of the prototype and subsequent ramp-up of the 120-set order over five years. |
| Overall Revenue Growth | 0.72% YoY (Standalone Q4 FY26) | Achievement of management's expected 15-20% revenue growth for FY27. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
35Bearishfull bear SMA stack · SMA20 -2.8% / mo · MACD − · near 52W low · sector +2.3pp vs Nifty (3M)
Technical chart
RVNLdaily · 1Y · AUTO-23.9%Daily technical trend read
Mixed signalsSignals are conflicting — long-term trend down. RSI 39. Wait for confirmation.
- Price < SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200 — full bearish stack.
- SMA20 falling (~2.9% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 39 — rising, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- Within 5% of 52-week low — testing support.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
- Price is 18.1% below the 30-week proxy.
- The 50-DMA is below the 30-week proxy and its slope is falling -5.3%.
- Both 3-month and 6-month returns are negative.
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 14 · OVERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 14 · OVERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Fundamental score breakdown
OVERVALUEDWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Balance sheet contributes 7/15 to the score.
- Cash flow contributes 3/10 to the score.
- Growth contributes 2/25 to the score.
Main drags
- Fair-value margin of safety is negative at -681.3%.
- Valuation is weaker at 0/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Quality is weaker at 0/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Execution business valuation: EV/EBITDA plus order and working-capital risk
Capital-intensive execution stories need cash-flow and balance-sheet checks alongside valuation.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
Factor attribution
Modelled fair value
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Mixed Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 42nd percentile of the scored universe and 51st percentile within Infra. Main check: financial discipline is weak at 50/100.
Healthy Trust Lite: Promoter holding is 72.8%. Key concern: Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-1889 Cr.
Usable, but needs evidence. Treat guidance with a margin of safety.
overall median 67 · Infra: 51st pctile, median 64 · Mid: 24th pctile, median 76
41 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Mixed Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter holding is 72.8%.
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸7 years of positive FCF.
- ▸4/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth.
Trust risks
- ▸Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-1889 Cr.
- ▸ROCE trend is -3.9%.
- ▸1 of the latest 4 quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 49.20
- P/B
- 4.50
- EV/EBITDA
- 52.88
- Market Cap
- 44305.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 9.02%
- ROCE
- 10.80%
- ROA
- 4.13%
- Dividend Y
- 0.80%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 6.00%
- EPS 5Y
- -2.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- -1.63%
- EPS 3Y
- -13.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.62
- Interest Coverage
- 2.23×
- Altman Z
- 3.63
- Book Value
- 47.10
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- —
- FCF Positive Y
- 7/5
- OCF
- -1889.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 4.31
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 72.84%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 4%
Financial History
Updated 5/9/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
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Peers
Business-comparable names in Infra, ranked by similarity
Peers
Business-comparable peers in Infra — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.