Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Press Release / Media Release 28 Sep - NALCO held Angul Aluminium Park roadshow in Kolkata and paid ₹1,083.06 crore dividend to Government of India.
Source: Bse
National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM)
Mid CapMetals stocks · Mid cap · NSE
National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO) is a Navratna CPSE with 51.28% Govt of India holding. It operates an integrated Bauxite-Alumina-Aluminium-Power-Coal Complex. NALCO claims to be a global leader in producing bauxite and alumina at the lowest cost, with dedicated port facilities and wind power generation.
Data qualityFresh enough for analysisQuote updated 19 Oct, 03:31 pm ISTDetails
Quote19 Oct, 03:31 pm IST
Base fundamentals16 Oct 2026 · screener
Latest result01 Aug, 02:29 am IST
Score20 Oct, 04:30 am IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags04 Oct 2026
Coverage14/14 · 100%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · Metals P/E 23.2 (n=92)
Technical timing lens
Trend score and candlestick chart
32Bearishfull bear SMA stack · SMA20 -10.8% / mo · MACD −
Stock trend: 20
Sector RS: 50
Sector 3M: -4.5% vs Nifty 500 -5.6%
Metals FPI tailwindNot confirmed
Latest mapped FPI equity flow was not positive. View sector evidence
Technical chart
NATIONALUMD candles · FIT view-27.2%Latest close ₹318.00 on 2026-10-19
Bar
-1.9%
RSI
37
MACD hist
-0.16
52W pos
42%
2026-10-19O ₹324.25H ₹324.25L ₹316.90C ₹318.00Vol 28.3L sh
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal
Market context
Relative performance and chart statistics
Adjusted completed-session prices, rebased to 100
NATIONALUMNifty MetalNifty 500
- NATIONALUM
- -7.3%
- Nifty 500
- -5.6%
- Nifty Metal
- -3.8%
- Vs Nifty 500
- -1.7 pp
Chart stats
19 Oct 2026- From 52W high
- -28.6%
- 52W range position
- 43%
- ATR (14)
- 3.2%
- Volume vs 20D
- 0.57x
- Avg traded value
- ₹162 Cr
- 20D price channel
- ₹309.9 - ₹364
₹445.2
₹221.4 - ₹445.2
₹10.3
Latest completed session
20-session average
32.2% annualized volatility
Research snapshot
What the evidence says now
Strong fundamentals, management evidence is still limited to a financial-only Trust Lite signal, but price trend argues for patience. Suitable for staggered entry or watchlist confirmation rather than aggressive buying.
Strong U-Score but weak trend: timing is not confirming the thesis.
Suggested next step
Add to watchlist
Fundamental setup is interesting, but technical confirmation is weak.
U-Score
Legacy · DEEP VALUE92
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
Latest result
Excellent100
Revenue +39.3% · PAT +90.9% YoY
Technical
Bearish32
Price trend and sector-relative-strength timing.
Valuation
Legacy model+75.1%
Legacy margin-of-safety estimate; the revised evidence label remains in shadow validation.
Trust
Limited evidence84
Financial-only signal; management claim evidence is not sufficient yet.
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Latest result
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Excellent · 100/100Rev +39% YoY · PAT +91% YoY · margin expansion · +6% QoQ · operating leverage
Filed 31 Jul 2026
Open results browser →| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹5,302 Cr | +39.3% | +5.8% |
| EBITDA | ₹2,708 Cr | +83.2% | +15.3% |
| Operating margin | 51.0% | +1200 bps | +400 bps |
| PAT | ₹2,003 Cr | +90.9% | +16.3% |
| PAT margin | 37.8% | +1023 bps | +343 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.66
- P/B
- 2.69
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.91
- Market Cap
- 58478.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 29.40%
- ROCE
- 39.60%
- ROA
- 25.43%
- Dividend Y
- 3.61%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 15.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 35.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 8.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 59.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.00
- Interest Coverage
- 90.62×
- Altman Z
- 9.25
- Book Value
- 118.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 3.83%
- FCF Positive Y
- 12/5
- OCF
- 6438.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 36.77
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 51.28%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 43%
Financial History
Updated 20/10/2026
Revenue
₹ CrLatest: 17.8k+6.3% vs prev
Net Profit
₹ CrLatest: 6,751+16.5% vs prev
Return on Equity
%Latest: 31.3-4.0% vs prev
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Daily technical trend read
Mixed signalsSignals are conflicting — long-term trend down. RSI 37. Wait for confirmation.
- Price < SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200 — full bearish stack.
- SMA20 falling (~12.1% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 37 — rising, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- 29% off 52W high · 40% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Nifty 500 leadership
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
76
RS percentile
Stage 4 Downtrend
1M return
-9.3%
3M return
-7.3%
6M return
-27.1%
1Y return
+34.3%
RS 1D
0
RS 20D
-10
Sector rank
#11
Industry rank
-
Stage evidence
- Price is 15.8% below the 30-week proxy.
- The 50-DMA is below the 30-week proxy and its slope is falling -1.4%.
- Both 3-month and 6-month returns are negative.
50-DMA
price below
200-DMA
price below
Sector
neutral
Industry
unranked
Relative-strength line vs Nifty 500 (base 100)
262 observations
19 Oct 2026Value 163.37-0.91%
RS vs Nifty 500163
Valuation & peers
U-Score 92 · legacy U-Score band DEEP VALUE · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Valuation & peers
U-Score 92 · legacy U-Score band DEEP VALUE · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Top Setup
Fundamental score breakdown
U band · DEEP VALUEValuation22/30
Growth25/25
Quality20/20
Balance Sheet12/15
Cash Flow8/10
Piotroski
8/9 (+5)
Penalties
0
Raw sum
92
Why this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
92/100 · legacy band DEEP VALUE
Positive drivers
- FCF yield is supportive at 3.8%.
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 75.1%.
Main drags
- Valuation is weaker at 22/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Balance sheet is weaker at 12/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Cash flow is weaker at 8/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Primary lens
Mid-cycle PE/EV/EBITDA using multi-year average margins or earnings.
Secondary checks
Current margin versus 5-year average, balance sheet strength, commodity cycle.
Main risk check
A low trailing PE may mean peak-cycle earnings, not true cheapness.
PE
8.7
PB
2.7
EV/EBITDA
5.9
ROE
29.4%
ROCE
39.6%
FCF Yield
3.8%
Debt/Equity
0.0
MoS
+75.1%
Cyclical/value-trap warning
This sector can look cheap when profits are temporarily high. Check mid-cycle margins/earnings before relying on trailing PE. Current PE is low at 8.7, so peak-cycle earnings risk should be checked.
Score movement
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Stored run: 20 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
92
Previous: 92
Legacy U-Score band
DEEP VALUE
Previous: DEEP VALUE
Margin of safety
+75.1%
Previous: +75.1%
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
20 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
92
92
92
93
92
92
92
92
92
92
92
92
Factor attribution
No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.
Modelled fair value
Graham Number
₹312.45
-1.8% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
34.8
Growth-justified Value
₹1,279.6
+75.1% MoS
PEG
0.19
Comparable companies
Peers
Business-comparable peers in Metals — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.
Ticker
Name
Why peer
Score
PE
ROE
MoS
Verdict
GOYALALUM
Small
Goyal Aluminiums Limited
Metals
match 31
36
17.4
12.9%
+49%
WATCHLIST
NMDC
Mid
NMDC Limited
Mining
match 22
75
8.3
23.4%
+24%
DEEP VALUE
SAIL
Mid
Steel Authority of India Limited
Steel
match 18
42
14.6
6.6%
-140%
WATCHLIST
HINDCOPPER
Small
Hindustan Copper Limited
Metals
match 17
63
36.7
32.9%
-8%
UNDERVALUED
JSL
Large
Jindal Stainless Limited
Steel
match 15
64
18.4
17.7%
+46%
UNDERVALUED
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business and thesis
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Thesis intactReviewed 2026-06-04T07:07:54.718Z
Management commentary snapshot
Q4 FY26 Net Sales and PAT declined YoY, but FY26 saw highest ever production and sales volumes across key segments, with Net Sales up 6.4% and PAT up 9.22% YoY. LME Aluminium prices showed an upward trend in Q4 FY26.
Despite a YoY dip in Q4 FY26 financials, NALCO delivered robust full-year FY26 performance with record production and sales volumes. Significant capacity expansion projects for bauxite, alumina, and smelter are underway, positioning the company for long-term growth. Favorable LME price trends and strong Indian demand outlook support the thesis, though governance concerns regarding independent directors are noted.
Growth engines
Pottangi Bauxite Mines Expansion
Expansion of Pottangi Bauxite mines to 3.5 MTPA capacity, likely opening in May 2026.
5th Stream Alumina Refinery Expansion
Expansion of Alumina Refinery with a 5th Stream, adding 1 MTPA capacity, commissioning expected June 2026.
Aluminium Smelter Expansion
Expansion of Aluminium Smelter by 0.5 MTPA capacity, with likely commissioning in August 2030.
Captive Power Plant Expansion
Expansion of Captive Power Plant by 1,080 MW capacity, likely commissioning in June 2031.
Capacity and execution
Pottangi Bauxite Mines
3.5 MTPA capacity addition, likely opening May 2026.
5th Stream Alumina Refinery
1 MTPA capacity addition, start of commissioning June 2026.
Aluminium Smelter
0.5 MTPA capacity addition, likely commissioning August 2030.
Captive Power Plant
1,080 MW capacity addition, likely commissioning June 2031.
Tailwinds
Geopolitical Turmoil & Supply Disruptions
Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and capacity curtailments/disruptions (~3.0 Mln. TPA) reduce global supply, potentially increasing prices.
Elevated Energy Prices
Elevated Gas & Oil (Energy) prices provide a 'Cost Push' for aluminium prices.
Fund Re-alignment
Contagion from Copper & other Base metals through 'fund re-alignment' by fund managers.
Strong Demand Growth
Demand growth in industrial sectors like EVs, renewables, grid, solar, packaging, and construction. Indian aluminium demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.3-7.2% till 2030.
Headwinds
Monetary Policy & Currency Movements
Movement of US$, US Treasury Bond Yields, and FED's delayed stance on policy regarding interest rate cuts.
Risk radar
Regulatory & Economic Conditions
Changes in government regulations, laws, statutes, judicial pronouncements, and economic conditions affecting demand/supply and price.
EU's CBAM Roll-out
EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) roll-out could influence supply continuity and export competitiveness.
Board Governance
UNDER_STRESSAbsence of Independent Directors on the Board w.e.f. April 1, 2026, resulting in no Board level Committees being in position.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Analyst reading lens
Compare BOTH
Both Year-on-Year (YoY) and Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ) comparisons are crucial for a metals company. YoY provides context for annual performance and seasonality, while QoQ highlights sequential momentum, utilization, and commodity price impacts in a cyclical industry.
Sector KPIs management disclosed
Bauxite Production
Q4 FY26: 2,047 '000T (+7.57% YoY); FY26: 77.07 Lakh Tonne (+6.13% YoY).
Alumina Hydrate Production
Q4 FY26: 574 '000T (-1.88% YoY); FY26: 23.00 Lakh Tonne (+10.79% YoY).
Aluminium Metal Production
Q4 FY26: 117 '000T (-0.85% YoY); FY26: 4.72 Lakh Tonne (+2.61% YoY).
Net Sales
Q4 FY26: Rs 4,981 Crore (-4.72% YoY); FY26: Rs 17,729 Crore (+6.40% YoY).
Management forward view
Cost Efficiency & Productivity
Driving cost efficiency through reduction in specific consumptions and unlocking higher productivity via optimal use of installed capacities.
Raw Material Linkages
Building sustainable competitive advantage via secured raw material linkages.
Refinery Capacity Protection
Expanded Refinery capacity aims to protect the bottom line in case of an LME downswing.
Value-Added Products
Smelter capacity addition will provide scope for extrusions and other value-added products.
Thesis monitor
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| LME Aluminium Price | March 2026: $3,370/MT | Average around US$ 3,125 / MT for CY 2026. |
| Pottangi Bauxite Mines Commissioning | Likely opening May 2026 | Successful commissioning and ramp-up of 3.5 MTPA capacity. |
| 5th Stream Alumina Refinery Commissioning | Start of commissioning June 2026 | Successful commissioning and ramp-up of 1 MTPA capacity. |
| Indian Aluminium Demand Growth | Positive growth in past 5 years | Sustained CAGR of 6.3 to 7.2 percent till 2030. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Show extracted source claims
demand outlooknot yet verifiablequantified
Indian Aluminium demand is expected to grow at a CAGR range of 6.3% to 7.2% until 2030.
Timeframe: till 2030Direction: growthConfidence: expected
"Indian Aluminium demand is expected to grow at a CAGR range of 6.3 to 7.2 per cent till 2030."
demand outlooknot yet verifiablequantified
Indian Aluminium demand is expected to grow at a CAGR range of 6.3% to 7.2% until 2030.
Timeframe: till 2030Direction: growthConfidence: expected
"Indian Aluminium demand is expected to grow at a CAGR range of 6.3 to 7.2 per cent till 2030."
pricingnot yet verifiablequantified
LME aluminium prices are projected to average around US$ 3125 per metric tonne for calendar year 2026.
Timeframe: CY 2026
"LME prices to average around US$ 3125 / MT for CY 2026."
pricingdeliveredquantified
LME aluminium prices are projected to average around US$ 3125 per metric tonne for calendar year 2026.
Timeframe: CY 2026
"LME prices to average around US$ 3125 / MT for CY 2026."
Outcome check: OPM moved from 47.0% to average 51.0% (+4.0 pp).
project executionnot yet verifiablequantified
The 5th Stream Alumina Refinery, with a capacity of 1 MTPA, is scheduled to start commissioning in June 2026.
Timeframe: June 2026
"Start of Commissioning- June’2026"
project executionnot yet verifiablequantified
The 5th Stream Alumina Refinery, with a capacity of 1 MTPA, is scheduled to start commissioning in June 2026.
Timeframe: June 2026
"Start of Commissioning- June’2026"
project executionnot yet verifiablequantified
The Aluminium Smelter expansion, with a capacity of 0.5 MTPA, is likely to be commissioned in August 2030.
Timeframe: August 2030Confidence: likely
"Likely Commissioning- Aug’2030"
project executionnot yet verifiablequantified
The Aluminium Smelter expansion, with a capacity of 0.5 MTPA, is likely to be commissioned in August 2030.
Timeframe: August 2030Confidence: likely
"Likely Commissioning- Aug’2030"
Trust Score
84Limited evidence · low confidenceTrust Lite
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Limited evidence: Management has 100% delivered/partly-delivered outcomes on 1 checked claims. It ranks around the 97th percentile of the scored universe and 98th percentile within Metals. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
This is a financial-behaviour screen, not a claim-tested management reliability verdict.
Computed 20 Oct 2026
management-trust-v1
42 docs text-extracted · 16 concalls text-extracted
Score band
Limited evidence
Financial behaviour is scored, but management claims do not yet have enough outcome checks.
Relative rank
97th percentile
overall median 67 · Metals: 98th pctile, median 70 · Mid: 86th pctile, median 76
Evidence depth
Financial-only
42 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
Claim delivery
100% delivered or partly delivered
1/6 claims checked · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Limited evidence · low confidenceWhat it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Can support position sizing if valuation and trend also agree.
Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Promoter
78
strong · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
77
strong · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
96
strong · leverage and solvency
Discipline
90
strong · capital discipline
Results
79
strong · quarterly consistency
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is positive at 3.8%.
- ▸12 years of positive FCF.
- ▸Debt/equity is 0.00.
Trust risks
- ▸No major Trust Lite risk flags.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Continue researching National Aluminium Company Limited
Important announcements & filings
Latest exchange and company disclosures found within the past two years.
Open source ↗
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Change in Management 25 Sep - NALCO promoted five executives, including finance, materials, production and S&P leaders, to Executive Director.
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Change in Management 14 Sep - C&AG appoints B M Chatrath & Co. LLP and SRB & Associates as joint statutory auditors for 2026-27.
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Press Release / Media Release 7 Sep - NALCO signs technology partnership with EGA for 0.5 MTPA brownfield smelter expansion at Anugola, Odisha.
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Press Release / Media Release 31 Aug - NALCO held its 45th AGM, reported record FY26 performance, and approved ₹1.00 final dividend.
Source: Bse
Annual report
Annual Report 2026
Source: Bse
Annual report
Annual Report 2025
Source: Bse
All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.