AnnouncementSep 2026
Sep 2026 · Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Monthly Business Updates 1 Oct - NMDC reports September 2026 iron ore production of 4.04 MT and sales of 3.51 MT; cumulative production 27.27 MT.
Source: Bse
NMDC Limited (NMDC)
Mid CapMetals stocks · Mid cap · NSE
NMDC Limited is a state-owned iron ore producer in India. The company reported best-ever annual production and sales volumes in FY26, alongside strong revenue growth, despite a decline in average iron ore realizations and increased operating costs.
Data qualityFresh enough for analysisQuote updated 19 Oct, 03:31 pm ISTDetails
Quote19 Oct, 03:31 pm IST
Base fundamentals20 Oct 2026 · screener
Latest result16 Aug, 12:37 am IST
Score20 Oct, 05:15 am IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags02 May 2026
Coverage14/14 · 100%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · Metals P/E 23.2 (n=92)
Technical timing lens
Trend score and candlestick chart
31Bearishfull bear SMA stack · SMA20 -11.3% / mo · MACD − · near 52W low
Stock trend: 18
Sector RS: 50
Sector 3M: -4.5% vs Nifty 500 -5.6%
Metals FPI tailwindNot confirmed
Latest mapped FPI equity flow was not positive. View sector evidence
Technical chart
NMDCD candles · FIT view-21.0%Latest close ₹70.50 on 2026-10-19
Bar
-2.0%
RSI
31
MACD hist
-0.10
52W pos
1%
2026-10-19O ₹71.95H ₹72.10L ₹70.30C ₹70.50Vol 98.6L sh
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal
Market context
Relative performance and chart statistics
Adjusted completed-session prices, rebased to 100
NMDCNifty MetalNifty 500
- NMDC
- -15.9%
- Nifty 500
- -5.6%
- Nifty Metal
- -3.8%
- Vs Nifty 500
- -10.3 pp
Chart stats
19 Oct 2026- From 52W high
- -27.7%
- 52W range position
- 1%
- ATR (14)
- 2.4%
- Volume vs 20D
- 0.66x
- Avg traded value
- ₹107 Cr
- 20D price channel
- ₹70.1 - ₹82.3
₹97.5
₹70.1 - ₹97.5
₹1.7
Latest completed session
20-session average
25.3% annualized volatility
Research snapshot
What the evidence says now
Strong fundamentals, management evidence is still limited to a financial-only Trust Lite signal, but price trend argues for patience. Suitable for staggered entry or watchlist confirmation rather than aggressive buying.
Strong U-Score but weak trend: timing is not confirming the thesis.
Suggested next step
Add to watchlist
Fundamental setup is interesting, but technical confirmation is weak.
U-Score
Legacy · DEEP VALUE75
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
Latest result
Bad12
Revenue +0.8% · PAT +0.4% YoY
Technical
Bearish31
Price trend and sector-relative-strength timing.
Valuation
Legacy model+24.0%
Legacy margin-of-safety estimate; the revised evidence label remains in shadow validation.
Trust
Limited evidence82
Financial-only signal; management claim evidence is not sufficient yet.
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Latest result
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Bad · 12/100margin compression · Rev +1% YoY · PAT +0% YoY
Filed 30 Jun 2026
Open results browser →| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹6,795 Cr | +0.8% | -40.1% |
| EBITDA | ₹2,468 Cr | -0.4% | -6.7% |
| Operating margin | 36.0% | -100 bps | +1300 bps |
| PAT | ₹1,976 Cr | +0.4% | -2.5% |
| PAT margin | 29.1% | -12 bps | +1121 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.31
- P/B
- 1.82
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.04
- Market Cap
- 61982.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 23.40%
- ROCE
- 27.60%
- ROA
- 15.44%
- Dividend Y
- 4.98%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 16.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 4.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 22.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 17.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.19
- Interest Coverage
- 79.73×
- Altman Z
- 5.12
- Book Value
- 38.70
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 1.86%
- FCF Positive Y
- 12/5
- OCF
- 4996.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 8.49
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 60.79%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 1%
Financial History
Updated 20/10/2026
Revenue
₹ CrLatest: 32.1k+34.2% vs prev
Net Profit
₹ CrLatest: 7,450+14.3% vs prev
Return on Equity
%Latest: 21.9-0.4% vs prev
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Daily technical trend read
Mixed signalsSignals are conflicting — long-term trend down. RSI 31. Wait for confirmation.
- Price < SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200 — full bearish stack.
- SMA20 falling (~12.7% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 31 — rising, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- Within 5% of 52-week low — testing support.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Valuation & peers
U-Score 75 · legacy U-Score band DEEP VALUE · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Valuation & peers
U-Score 75 · legacy U-Score band DEEP VALUE · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Top Setup
Fundamental score breakdown
U band · DEEP VALUEValuation22/30
Growth13/25
Quality16/20
Balance Sheet13/15
Cash Flow5/10
Piotroski
8/9 (+5)
Penalties
1
Raw sum
75
Why this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
75/100 · legacy band DEEP VALUE
Positive drivers
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 24.0%.
- Balance sheet contributes 13/15 to the score.
Main drags
- Cash flow is weaker at 5/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Growth is weaker at 13/25; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Valuation is weaker at 22/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Primary lens
Mid-cycle PE/EV/EBITDA using multi-year average margins or earnings.
Secondary checks
Current margin versus 5-year average, balance sheet strength, commodity cycle.
Main risk check
A low trailing PE may mean peak-cycle earnings, not true cheapness.
PE
8.3
PB
1.8
EV/EBITDA
7.0
ROE
23.4%
ROCE
27.6%
FCF Yield
1.9%
Debt/Equity
0.2
MoS
+24.0%
Cyclical/value-trap warning
This sector can look cheap when profits are temporarily high. Check mid-cycle margins/earnings before relying on trailing PE. Current PE is low at 8.3, so peak-cycle earnings risk should be checked.
Score movement
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Stored run: 20 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
75
Previous: 75
Legacy U-Score band
DEEP VALUE
Previous: DEEP VALUE
Margin of safety
+24.0%
Previous: +24.0%
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
20 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
Factor attribution
No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.
Modelled fair value
Graham Number
₹85.98
+18.0% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
10.9
Growth-justified Value
₹92.71
+24.0% MoS
PEG
1.30
Comparable companies
Peers
Business-comparable peers in Metals — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.
Ticker
Name
Why peer
Score
PE
ROE
MoS
Verdict
ASHAPURMIN
Micro
Ashapura Minechem Limited
Mining
match 50
78
10.8
28.0%
+69%
DEEP VALUE
KENNAMET
Small
Kennametal India Limited
Mining
match 50
56
47.0
24.5%
-33%
FAIR VALUE
RATNAMANI
Small
Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Limited
Mining
match 50
37
41.0
12.6%
+3%
WATCHLIST
KIRLFER
Small
Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Limited
Mining
match 50
55
20.0
14.5%
+49%
FAIR VALUE
VRAJ
Small
Vraj Iron and Steel Limited
Mining
match 49
64
11.2
7.8%
+67%
UNDERVALUED
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business and thesis
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Thesis intactReviewed 2026-06-04T07:10:35.743Z
Management commentary snapshot
NMDC reported best-ever annual iron ore production and sales volumes in FY26, up 21% and 13% YoY respectively. Q4 FY26 saw record production and sales, driving a 61% YoY revenue increase, though average realizations declined 5% YoY in Q4.
The company demonstrated robust operational performance with record production and sales volumes for both Q4 and full FY26. While average realizations saw a slight decline, strong volume growth translated into significant revenue and PAT increases. However, the notable increase in 'Purchase of Stock in Trade' and 'Pellets – Job Work Expenses' impacted EBITDA margins.
Growth engines
Increased Production Volumes
positiveFY26 iron ore production reached a best-ever 531.58 LT, up 21% YoY. Q4 FY26 production was 162.72 LT, a best-ever Q4.
Higher Sales Volumes
positiveFY26 iron ore sales were a best-ever 502.39 LT, growing 13% YoY. Q4 FY26 sales were 152.99 LT, a best-ever Q4.
Strong Q4 Revenue Growth
positiveRevenue from operations in Q4 FY26 grew 61% YoY to 11,173 INR Cr, driven by robust volume performance.
Headwinds
Declining Realizations
negativeAverage iron ore sales realization decreased 4% YoY in FY26 and 5% YoY in Q4 FY26.
Increased Purchase of Stock in Trade
negativePurchase of Stock in Trade surged 1901% YoY in FY26 to 3,942 Cr and 3318% YoY in Q4 FY26 to 2,837 Cr, impacting margins.
Higher Pellets Job Work Expenses
negativePellets – Job Work Expenses increased 428% YoY in FY26 to 1,361 Cr and 89% YoY in Q4 FY26 to 398 Cr.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Analyst reading lens
Compare BOTH
Both YoY and QoQ comparisons are crucial. YoY highlights annual growth and market share gains in a seasonal business. QoQ reveals sequential momentum in production, sales, and realizations, which are key for assessing short-term operational efficiency and commodity price impact in the Metals sector.
Sector KPIs management disclosed
Iron Ore Production (FY26)
531.58 LT, +21% YoY (Best ever)
Iron Ore Sales (FY26)
502.39 LT, +13% YoY (Best ever)
Average Iron Ore Sales Realization (FY26)
4,921 Rs/T, -4% YoY
Revenue from Operations (FY26)
31,554 INR Cr, +33% YoY (Best ever)
Thesis monitor
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore Production Volumes | 531.58 LT (FY26), 162.72 LT (Q4 FY26) | Sustained growth in production volumes and operational efficiency. |
| Iron Ore Sales Realizations | 4,921 Rs/T (FY26), 4,759 Rs/T (Q4 FY26) | Stabilization or improvement in average domestic iron ore prices. |
| EBITDA Margin | 34% (FY26), 27% (Q4 FY26) | Trends in operating costs, especially 'Purchase of Stock in Trade' and 'Pellets – Job Work Expenses', to assess margin stability. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trust Score
82Limited evidence · low confidenceTrust Lite
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Limited evidence: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 94th percentile of the scored universe and 95th percentile within Metals. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
This is a financial-behaviour screen, not a claim-tested management reliability verdict.
Computed 20 Oct 2026
management-trust-v1
103 docs text-extracted · 29 concalls text-extracted
Score band
Limited evidence
Financial behaviour is scored, but management claims do not yet have enough outcome checks.
Relative rank
94th percentile
overall median 67 · Metals: 95th pctile, median 70 · Mid: 81st pctile, median 76
Evidence depth
Financial-only
103 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
Claim delivery
Outcome history still building
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Limited evidence · low confidenceWhat it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Can support position sizing if valuation and trend also agree.
Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Promoter
86
strong · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
77
strong · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
89
strong · leverage and solvency
Discipline
80
strong · capital discipline
Results
79
strong · quarterly consistency
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter holding is 60.8%.
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is positive at 1.9%.
- ▸12 years of positive FCF.
Trust risks
- ▸ROCE trend is -2.1%.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Continue researching NMDC Limited
Important announcements & filings
Latest exchange and company disclosures found within the past two years.
Open source ↗
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 8 Sep - Newspaper Publication - Notice to shareholders regarding Special Window for transfer & dematerialization (Demat) of physical securities
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 7 Sep - Notice of 68th Annual General Meeting and e voting information Newspaper Clippings
Source: Bse
Investor presentationAug 2026
Aug 2026 · PPT
Source: Bse
AnnouncementJul 2026
Jul 2026 · Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Monthly Business Updates 1 Aug - NMDC reported July 2026 iron ore production and sales; total production 4.06 MT, sales 3.40 MT.
Source: Bse
AnnouncementJul 2026
Jul 2026 · Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Change in Directorate 18 Jul - Shri Vivek Nishant Nath appointed Director (Commercial) for five years from 15 July 2026.
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 8 Jul - Notice to Shareholders regarding special window for transfer and dematerialization (Demat) of physical securities.
Source: Bse
Investor presentationJun 2026
Jun 2026 · PPT
Source: Bse
Concall transcriptJun 2026
Jun 2026 · Transcript
Source: Bse
AnnouncementJun 2026
Jun 2026 · Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Monthly Business Updates 1 Jul - NMDC reports June 2026 iron ore production of 5.15 MT and sales of 3.98 MT; cumulative production 15.10 MT.
Source: Bse
Investor presentationJun 2026
Jun 2026 · PPT
Source: Bse
AnnouncementMay 2026
May 2026 · Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Monthly Business Updates 1 Jun - May 2026 iron ore production 5.31 MT and sales 4.04 MT; cumulative sales 7.72 MT.
Source: Bse
All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.