ITC Limited (ITC)
Large CapFMCG stocks · Large cap · NSE
ITC is a diversified Indian conglomerate with significant presence in FMCG (Cigarettes & Others), Paperboards & Packaging, Agri-Business, and Information Technology. It focuses on 'Responsible Competitiveness' and 'Triple Bottom Line' performance.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Investable fundamentals, management trust is supportive, price trend argues for patience, and recent execution is weak.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Bad · 0/100Rev -11% YoY · PAT -16% YoY · margin compression · +7% QoQ
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹19,114 Cr | -11.1% | +7.2% |
| EBITDA | ₹5,181 Cr | -24.0% | -25.2% |
| Operating margin | 27.0% | -500 bps | -1200 bps |
| PAT | ₹4,509 Cr | -15.6% | -17.6% |
| PAT margin | 23.6% | -127 bps | -710 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
ITC reported strong Q4 FY26 standalone gross revenue growth of 17.5% YoY, with FMCG-Others revenue up 15% YoY and Paper segment profits up 21% YoY. Full-year gross revenue grew 10.1% YoY, but cigarette taxes and geopolitical issues impacted Agri-Business.
While FMCG-Others shows robust growth and margin expansion, the unprecedented cigarette tax hike poses a significant challenge to a core segment. Agri-Business faces geopolitical and domestic policy headwinds. Paper segment shows recovery but overall outlook is mixed.
FMCG-Others Premiumization & New Gen Channels
Robust growth in premium portfolio and New Gen Channels (e-Commerce, Quick Commerce, Modern Trade) accounting for 34% of sales in key categories.
Digital-first & Organic Portfolio
Acquisitions like Sresta, Yogabar, Mother Sparsh, Prasuma delivered ~60% YoY growth, clocking ARR over Rs. 1350 cr.
Value-Added Agri Products (VAAP)
Rapid scale-up across spices, coffee, frozen marine, horticulture; grew 1.4x over two years, with organic spices volumes doubling.
Fresh Food Business (Cloud Kitchens)
New growth vector with GMV doubling YoY to ~Rs. 220 cr., expanding to ~70 cloud kitchens across 5 cities.
Integrated Consumer Goods Manufacturing and Logistics Facilities (ICMLs)
Currently, 12 ICMLs are operational, enabling delivery of fresher products and reducing distance to market.
Fresh Food Cloud Kitchens
Expanded operating footprint to approx. 70 cloud kitchens, with 25 opened during the year.
Nicotine Products Facility
State-of-the-art facility at Mysuru stabilized, with plans to rapidly scale up exports in the ensuing year.
Resilient Domestic Economy
India's Real GDP grew 7.6% in FY26, projected 6.9% in FY27, supported by private consumption and improving rural/urban demand.
Moderating Input Costs (Paper)
Wood prices witnessed moderation in H2 FY26 amidst improved availability, providing partial relief to the Paper segment.
Digital Adoption & Infrastructure
Accelerated digital adoption and improved infrastructure & connectivity are structural drivers for India’s rapid growth.
Unprecedented Cigarette Tax Hike
Significant changes in taxation structure w.e.f. Feb 1, 2026, leading to an unprecedented increase in tax incidence on cigarettes.
Geopolitical Disruptions
West Asia conflict caused supply chain disruptions, logistical challenges, and deferral of Agri-Business sales, impacting exports and input costs.
Low-Priced Imports (Paper)
Cheap supplies of paperboards and paper from China and Indonesia, often below cash-cost levels, continue to challenge the domestic industry.
Government Restrictions (Agri)
Imposition of stock limits and export restrictions on key agri-commodities to ensure food security limited business opportunities.
Illicit Cigarette Trade
Punitive taxes on legal cigarettes enhance tax arbitrage for unscrupulous players, potentially boosting illicit trade and impacting revenue.
Prolonged Geopolitical Conflict
Ongoing West Asia conflict and emerging El Niño conditions pose risks to growth, inflation, Current Account, and consumer sentiment.
Input Material Price Volatility
Sharp surge in prices of key input materials (edible oil, soap noodles, packaging) towards Q4 end due to West Asia conflict.
Regulatory Environment (Cigarettes & Paper)
Extremely stringent regulations and discriminatory taxation on cigarettes, and need for sustained safeguard measures against cheap paper imports.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
YoY is crucial for assessing overall growth and comparing against previous periods, especially for FMCG. QoQ is important for sequential momentum in segments like Paperboards, where recovery from specific interventions (MIP) and input cost moderation are recent.
FMCG-Others Revenue Growth
Q4 Segment Revenue up 15% YoY (14% YoY ex-Sresta); Full Year Segment Revenue up 10.1% YoY (ex-Notebooks up 11.3% YoY).
FMCG-Others EBITDA Margin
Q4 EBITDA margin up ~200 bps YoY to 11% (ex-Sresta).
Cigarettes Net Segment Revenue
Full Year Net Segment Revenue up 8.2% YoY (strong performance till Jan’26).
Paper Segment PBIT
Q4 Segment PBIT up 21% YoY and 24% QoQ.
Mitigating Cigarette Tax Impact
Management is adopting staggered and agile pricing actions and re-architecting the product portfolio to minimize volume shift to illicit trade.
Scaling Nicotine Products
Plans are on the anvil to rapidly scale up the Nicotine & Nicotine derivative products business in the ensuing year.
Strengthening Agri-Value Chains
Scaling up ITCMAARS, a crop-agnostic full-stack AgriTech platform, to enhance competitiveness, market linkages, and value creation for farmers.
Expanding Fresh Food Business
Progressively introducing the Fresh Food Business across India, leveraging expertise in food science, FMCG brands, and culinary skills.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Cigarette Volume Shift | Unprecedented tax hike w.e.f. Feb 1, 2026. | Effectiveness of staggered pricing and portfolio re-architecture in minimizing volume shift to illicit trade. |
| FMCG-Others Margin Sustainability | Q4 EBITDA margin at 11% (ex-Sresta), up 200 bps YoY. | Ability to mitigate sharp input cost surges through market interventions, supply chain agility, and judicious pricing. |
| Agri-Business Export Recovery | Exports subdued due to West Asia conflict and high base. | Scale-up in Nicotine products and new market development to offset geopolitical disruptions. |
| Paper Segment Safeguard Measures | Partial relief from MIP on Virgin Multi-layer Paperboard. | Sustained safeguard measures against low-priced imports and continued moderation in wood prices. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
27Bearishfull bear SMA stack · SMA20 -4.4% / mo · MACD − · near 52W low
Technical chart
ITCdaily · 1Y · AUTO-15.2%Daily technical trend read
Mixed signalsSignals are conflicting — long-term trend down. RSI 40. Wait for confirmation.
- Price < SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200 — full bearish stack.
- SMA20 falling (~4.6% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 40 — rising, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- Within 5% of 52-week low — testing support.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
- Price is 10.3% below the 30-week proxy.
- The 50-DMA is below the 30-week proxy and its slope is falling -2.4%.
- Both 3-month and 6-month returns are negative.
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 69 · UNDERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 69 · UNDERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Fundamental score breakdown
UNDERVALUEDWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- FCF yield is supportive at 4.9%.
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 46.6%.
Main drags
- Growth is weaker at 9/25; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Valuation is weaker at 18/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Cash flow is weaker at 7/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Consumer valuation: PE/PEG and brand-quality premium
Consumer franchises can deserve higher multiples, but only when growth quality supports them.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
Factor attribution
Modelled fair value
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Healthy Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 81st percentile of the scored universe and 43rd percentile within FMCG. Main check: results consistency is weak at 36/100.
High Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero. Key concern: 1/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth.
Generally investable credibility. Look for weak sub-scores before increasing position size.
overall median 67 · FMCG: 43rd pctile, median 78 · Large: 62nd pctile, median 73
76 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Healthy Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is positive at 4.9%.
- ▸12 years of positive FCF.
- ▸Debt/equity is 0.03.
Trust risks
- ▸1/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth.
- ▸1 of the latest 4 quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.80
- P/B
- 4.56
- EV/EBITDA
- 12.17
- Market Cap
- 330912.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 29.30%
- ROCE
- 38.90%
- ROA
- 21.56%
- Dividend Y
- 5.49%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 10.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 10.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 4.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 3.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.03
- Interest Coverage
- 237.80×
- Altman Z
- 9.07
- Book Value
- 57.90
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 4.88%
- FCF Positive Y
- 12/5
- OCF
- 18464.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 15.84
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- —
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 5%
Financial History
Updated 5/9/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
Business-comparable names in FMCG, ranked by similarity
Peers
Business-comparable names in FMCG, ranked by similarity
Peers
Business-comparable peers in FMCG — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.