IP
IndiaPulse

Varun Beverages Limited (VBL)

Large Cap

FMCG stocks · Large cap · NSE

Varun Beverages Limited (VBL) is a key player in the global beverage industry and the second largest franchisee of PepsiCo outside the US. It produces and distributes a wide range of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), non-carbonated beverages (NCBs), and packaged drinking water under PepsiCo trademarks across 10 countries with distribution rights in 4 additional countries.

₹407.6
+0.45 · +0.11%
Quote04 Sept, 03:59 pm IST
Fundamentals05 Sept 2026 · screener
Score05 Sept, 10:20 pm IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags15 Aug 2026
Coverage14/14 · 100%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · FMCG P/E 36.0 (n=42)
Data confidence
Fresh enough for analysis
Investor decision lenses

One read, four checks

75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.

Mixed fundamentals, management trust is supportive, price trend argues for patience, and recent execution is consistent.

Suggested next step
Research, do not rush
The four lenses are not strongly aligned. Compare peers and wait for a cleaner setup.
U-Score
FAIR VALUE
50

Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.

Trust
Healthy Trust
79

low confidence · 0/0 claims checked

Technical
Bearish
27

Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.

Result consistency
consistent
87

Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.

Latest result

Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026

Average · 52/100

margin compression · Rev +20% YoY · PAT +15% YoY · +29% QoQ

Filed 28 Jul 2026
Open results browser →
MetricThis quarterYoYQoQ
Revenue₹8,451 Cr+20.4%+28.6%
EBITDA₹2,339 Cr+17.1%+53.4%
Operating margin28.0%+0 bps+500 bps
PAT₹1,525 Cr+15.1%+73.5%
PAT margin18.1%-83 bps+468 bps

NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.

Business & thesis

Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary

Business and thesis

Where growth can come from, and what can break the case

Thesis intactReviewed 2026-06-03T18:55:24.242Z
Management commentary snapshot

VBL reported strong Q1 CY2026 results with consolidated sales volumes up 16.3% YoY, driven by India (14.4%) and international (21.4%). Net Revenue grew 18.1% YoY to Rs. 65,742 million, EBITDA rose 21.0% YoY to Rs. 15,289 million, and PAT increased 20.1% YoY to Rs. 8,787 million.

Strong Q1 CY2026 performance driven by robust volume growth in both India and international markets. Margin expansion supported by operational efficiencies and raw material stocking. Strategic acquisitions in South Africa strengthen international footprint and future synergies, aligning with the long-term growth thesis.

Current business mix

Q1 CY2026 Sales Volumes by Category

Latest issuer-disclosed distribution across 3 reported categories.

Businessmix
CSD74.0%
Water19.0%
NCB7.0%
Growth engines

India Volume Growth Initiatives

Undertook targeted initiatives including pack upsizing, selective price-point launches to onboard new consumers, and new launches in energy and juice based drink segments.

International Expansion (Africa)

Consummated acquisition of Twizza in South Africa, strengthening manufacturing and route-to-market. Entered agreement to acquire Crickley Dairy in South Africa.

Diversified Portfolio

Across Africa, building scale in snacks and deepening presence in high-potential markets, in line with strategy of broadening portfolio and strengthening consumer relevance.

Capacity and execution

New Plant Commissioning & Stabilization

Facilities commissioned over the last year (Buxar, Prayagraj, Damtal and Meghalaya) have stabilized well and are expected to support growth and enhance operating efficiencies.

Tailwinds

Favorable Demographics & Urbanization

Long-term opportunity across markets supported by favorable demographics, rising incomes, growing urbanization, and increasing beverage consumption.

Operational Efficiencies

Improved gross margins and India EBITDA margins driven by operational efficiencies from robust volume growth.

Headwinds

Inflationary Raw Material Environment

Gross margins improved despite the inflationary raw material environment, indicating ongoing cost pressures.

Increased Depreciation

Depreciation increased by 30.9% on account of commissioning of new plants of last year, impacting profitability.

Increased Finance Costs

Finance cost increased by 18.0% on account of acquisition of Twizza in South Africa in the current quarter.

Risk radar

Regulatory Approvals for Acquisitions

Acquisition of Crickley Dairy is subject to regulatory and other approvals, including Competition Commissions of South Africa.

Management accountability

What management said, and what results must prove

Management accountability

What management said, and what results must prove

Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.

Analyst reading lens
Compare YOY

The presentation explicitly compares Q1 CY2026 results against Q1 CY2025, indicating a focus on year-over-year performance for seasonal beverage business trends and long-term growth.

Sector KPIs management disclosed

Consolidated Sales Volume Growth

Grew by 16.3% to 363.4 million cases in Q1 CY2026 from 312.4 million cases in Q1 CY2025.

India Sales Volume Growth

Strong volume growth of 14.4% in India in Q1 CY2026.

International Sales Volume Growth

Strong volume growth of 21.4% in international territories in Q1 CY2026.

Consolidated Realization per Case

Improved by 1.6% at the consolidated level, supported by improved realizations in international territories primarily due to favorable currency movement.

Management forward view

Confidence in Long-Term Opportunity

Management remains confident in the long-term opportunity across markets, supported by favorable demographics, rising incomes, growing urbanization, and increasing beverage consumption.

Positioned for Sustained Growth

With adequate capacities, a diversified portfolio, and a strong distribution network, VBL is well-positioned to deliver sustained growth and create long-term value.

Synergies from Acquisitions

The Twizza acquisition is expected to generate meaningful operational and commercial synergies over time.

Thesis monitor

Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings

CheckpointCurrent evidenceWhat to verify next
India Realization per Case1.5% decline YoY in Q1 CY2026 due to volume initiatives.Stabilization or improvement in realization per case as volume initiatives mature and pricing power is restored.
International Acquisition SynergiesTwizza acquisition consummated, Crickley Dairy agreement signed in South Africa.Realization of operational and commercial synergies from South African acquisitions and their contribution to overall profitability.
Raw Material Cost TrendsGross margins improved despite inflationary raw material environment in Q1 CY2026.Sustained ability to manage raw material inflation and maintain or further improve gross margins through efficient sourcing and product mix.
Low/No Sugar Product Mix~63% of consolidated sales volumes in Q1 CY2026.Continued growth in the mix of low/no sugar products and its impact on overall product premiumization and margin profile.

Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.

Technical timing lens

Trend score and candlestick chart

27Bearish

full bear SMA stack · SMA20 -6.1% / mo · MACD −

Stock trend: 19
Sector RS: 40
Sector 3M: -3.3% vs Nifty -1.5%

Technical chart

VBLdaily · 1Y · AUTO-8.6%
Latest close ₹407.60 on 2026-09-04
Bar
+0.0%
RSI
36
MACD hist
-0.68
52W pos
15%
2026-09-04O ₹407.55H ₹412.65L ₹406.10C ₹407.60Vol 41.4L sh
₹372.26₹420.33₹468.40₹516.47₹564.5452H52L407.602026-032026-06VolRSIMACD2026-032026-042026-062026-072026-09
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal

Daily technical trend read

Bearish setup

Trend is weak — long-term trend down. RSI 36.

  • Price < SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200 — full bearish stack.
  • Recent death cross (SMA50 crossed below SMA200).
  • SMA20 falling (~6.5% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
  • RSI(14) at 36 — rising, no extreme reading.
  • MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
  • 27% off 52W high · 7% above 52W low.

Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.

Nifty 500 leadership

Relative Strength & Trend Stage

26
RS percentile
Stage 4 Downtrend
1M return
-7.8%
3M return
-23.1%
6M return
-0.8%
1Y return
-11.9%
RS 1D
+4
RS 20D
-1
Sector rank
#16
Industry rank
#21
Stage evidence
  • Price is 12.5% below the 30-week proxy.
  • The 50-DMA is below the 30-week proxy and its slope is falling -1.4%.
  • Both 3-month and 6-month returns are negative.
50-DMA
price below
200-DMA
price below
Sector
lagging
Industry
lagging
Relative-strength line vs Nifty 500 (base 100)
264 observations
04 Sept 2026Value 76.92+0.10%
73829098106Aug 25Dec 25Apr 26Sept 2677
RS vs Nifty 50077

Valuation & score drivers

U-Score 50 · FAIR VALUE · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor

50U-SCORE
Financial Turnaround

Fundamental score breakdown

FAIR VALUE
Valuation2/30
Growth19/25
Quality10/20
Balance Sheet9/15
Cash Flow4/10
Piotroski
8/9 (+5)
Penalties
1
Raw sum
50

Why this score?

Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.

50/100 · FAIR VALUE

Positive drivers

  • Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
  • Growth contributes 19/25 to the score.
  • Balance sheet contributes 9/15 to the score.

Main drags

  • Valuation is weaker at 2/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
  • Cash flow is weaker at 4/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
  • Quality is weaker at 10/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model

Consumer valuation: PE/PEG and brand-quality premium

Consumer franchises can deserve higher multiples, but only when growth quality supports them.

Consumer PE/PEG
Primary lens
PE and PEG relative to growth, ROE, margins, and brand strength.
Secondary checks
Volume growth, pricing power, distribution, same-store or category growth.
Main risk check
Premium valuation needs durable growth and margin resilience.
PE
40.7
PB
7.0
EV/EBITDA
19.9
ROE
16.2%
ROCE
19.7%
FCF Yield
0.6%
Debt/Equity
0.1
MoS
+9.5%
Score movement

Stored run vs live recompute

This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.

Stored run: 05 Sept 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
50
Previous: 50
Verdict
FAIR VALUE
Previous: FAIR VALUE
Margin of safety
+9.5%
Previous: +9.5%

Score history

12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +1 points.

05 Sept 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
57
57
49
49
49
49
49
49
50
50
49
50

Factor attribution

No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.

Modelled fair value

Graham Number
₹114.2
-256.9% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
45.0
Growth-justified Value
₹450.45
+9.5% MoS
PEG
1.03

Trust score

Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth

Trust Score
79Healthy Trust · low confidenceTrust Lite

Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.

Healthy Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 88th percentile of the scored universe and 70th percentile within FMCG. Main check: financial discipline is weak at 58/100.

High Trust Lite: Promoter holding is 59.4%. Key concern: ROCE trend is -5%.

Computed 05 Sept 2026
management-trust-v1
121 docs text-extracted · 36 concalls text-extracted
Score band
Healthy Trust

Generally investable credibility. Look for weak sub-scores before increasing position size.

Relative rank
88th percentile

overall median 67 · FMCG: 70th pctile, median 78 · Large: 74th pctile, median 73

Evidence depth
Financial-only

121 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.

Claim delivery
Outcome history still building

0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet

How to read this Trust Score

Healthy Trust · low confidence
What it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Can support position sizing if valuation and trend also agree.

Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.

Forensic breakdown

Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.

Promoter
86
strong · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
77
strong · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
89
strong · leverage and solvency
Discipline
58
watch · capital discipline
Results
87
strong · quarterly consistency

Trust positives

  • Promoter holding is 59.4%.
  • Promoter pledge is zero.
  • FCF yield is positive at 0.6%.
  • 6 years of positive FCF.

Trust risks

  • ROCE trend is -5%.

Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.

Financials

Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history

Fundamentals

Valuation

P/E
40.70
P/B
7.05
EV/EBITDA
19.91
Market Cap
137869.00Cr

Profitability

ROE
16.20%
ROCE
19.70%
ROA
13.35%
Dividend Y
0.37%

Growth (CAGR)

Revenue 5Y
27.00%
EPS 5Y
50.00%
Revenue 3Y
18.00%
EPS 3Y
24.00%

Balance Sheet

Debt/Equity
0.13
Interest Coverage
28.66×
Altman Z
8.99
Book Value
57.90

Cash Flow

FCF Yield
0.57%
FCF Positive Y
6/5
OCF
3509.00 Cr
EPS TTM
10.01

Shareholding

Promoter Hold
59.43%
Promoter Pledge
0.00%
Momentum 52W
15%

Financial History

Updated 5/9/2026

Revenue

₹ Cr
No data

Net Profit

₹ Cr
No data

Return on Equity

%
No data

Peers

Business-comparable names in FMCG, ranked by similarity

Verify on:NSE India ↗
All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.