Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Analyst / Investor Meet - Intimation 16 Sep
Source: Bse
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HINDPETRO)
Mid CapEnergy stocks · Mid cap · NSE
HPCL is a Maharatna company, 2nd largest LPG marketer and cross-country product pipeline network operator in India. It owns & operates a 428 TMTPA Lube Refinery, with 24.5 MMTPA refining capacity (HPCL) and 11.3 MMTPA (JV). It holds a 20.27% domestic market share in petroleum products and has a legacy of over 100 years.
Data qualityFresh enough for analysisQuote updated 21 Oct, 11:46 am ISTDetails
Quote21 Oct, 11:46 am IST
Base fundamentals16 Oct 2026 · screener
Latest result22 Jul, 10:34 pm IST
Score21 Oct, 04:30 am IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags15 Aug 2026
Coverage14/14 · 100%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · Energy P/E 11.4 (n=18)
Technical timing lens
Trend score and candlestick chart
34BearishSMA20 -4.1% / mo · MACD + · sector -4.3pp vs Nifty 500 (3M)
Stock trend: 41
Sector RS: 25
Sector 3M: -9.9% vs Nifty 500 -5.6%
Energy FPI tailwindNot confirmed
Latest mapped FPI equity flow was not positive. View sector evidence
Technical chart
HINDPETROD candles · FIT view-8.5%TODAY · PROVISIONALLatest price ₹347.60 on 2026-10-21
Today's candle is provisional from the latest intraday quote; completed-candle scans remain unchanged.
Bar
-0.1%
RSI
50
MACD hist
2.04
52W pos
16%
2026-10-21O ₹347.80H ₹351.45L ₹346.15C ₹347.60Vol 25.0L shIntraday candle
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal
Market context
Relative performance and chart statistics
Adjusted completed-session prices, rebased to 100
HINDPETRONifty EnergyNifty 500
- HINDPETRO
- -14.0%
- Nifty 500
- -5.6%
- Nifty Energy
- -9.3%
- Vs Nifty 500
- -8.5 pp
Chart stats
19 Oct 2026- From 52W high
- -31.5%
- 52W range position
- 17%
- ATR (14)
- 2.6%
- Volume vs 20D
- 0.83x
- Avg traded value
- ₹160 Cr
- 20D price channel
- ₹323.3 - ₹365.2
₹508.5
₹316.2 - ₹508.5
₹9
Latest completed session
20-session average
34.4% annualized volatility
Research snapshot
What the evidence says now
Mixed fundamentals, management evidence is still limited to a financial-only Trust Lite signal, price trend argues for patience, and recent execution is mixed.
Suggested next step
Research, do not rush
The evidence is not strongly aligned. Compare peers and wait for a cleaner setup.
U-Score
Legacy · FAIR VALUE54
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
Latest result
Bad2
Revenue +26.9% · PAT -398.4% YoY
Technical
Bearish34
Price trend and sector-relative-strength timing.
Valuation
Legacy model-115.8%
Legacy margin-of-safety estimate; the revised evidence label remains in shadow validation.
Trust
Limited evidence78
Financial-only signal; management claim evidence is not sufficient yet.
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Latest result
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Bad · 2/100PAT -398% YoY · margin compression · Rev +27% YoY · +22% QoQ
Filed 22 Jul 2026
Open results browser →| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹1,40,584 Cr | +26.9% | +22.3% |
| EBITDA | ₹-16,122 Cr | -316.1% | -275.0% |
| Operating margin | -11.0% | -1800 bps | -1900 bps |
| PAT | ₹-12,265 Cr | -398.4% | -302.2% |
| PAT margin | -8.7% | -1243 bps | -1400 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 44.40
- P/B
- 1.13
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.94
- Market Cap
- 74155.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 30.90%
- ROCE
- 22.20%
- ROA
- 0.82%
- Dividend Y
- 6.96%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 14.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 11.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 2.81%
- EPS 3Y
- 66.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.85
- Interest Coverage
- 2.04×
- Altman Z
- 3.31
- Book Value
- 308.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 33.32%
- FCF Positive Y
- 9/5
- OCF
- 36111.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 7.85
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 54.90%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 17%
Financial History
Updated 20/10/2026
Revenue
₹ CrLatest: 441.8k+1.8% vs prev
Net Profit
₹ CrLatest: 18.0k+167.9% vs prev
Return on Equity
%Latest: 27.5+109.0% vs prev
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Daily technical trend read
Mixed signalsSignals are conflicting — long-term trend down. RSI 50. Wait for confirmation.
- Price below SMA200 (long-term downtrend) — short-term bounces likely countertrend.
- SMA20 falling (~4.4% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 50 — rising, no extreme reading.
- MACD above signal, histogram expanding — bullish momentum building.
- 32% off 52W high · 10% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Nifty 500 leadership
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
28
RS percentile
Stage 4 Downtrend
1M return
-2.9%
3M return
-14.0%
6M return
-8.9%
1Y return
-22.9%
RS 1D
+4
RS 20D
+3
Sector rank
#6
Industry rank
#10
Stage evidence
- Price is 6.4% below the 30-week proxy.
- The 50-DMA is below the 30-week proxy and its slope is falling -1.9%.
- Both 3-month and 6-month returns are negative.
50-DMA
price below
200-DMA
price below
Sector
neutral
Industry
improving
Relative-strength line vs Nifty 500 (base 100)
261 observations
19 Oct 2026Value 81.39+1.78%
RS vs Nifty 50081
Valuation & peers
U-Score 54 · legacy U-Score band FAIR VALUE · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Valuation & peers
U-Score 54 · legacy U-Score band FAIR VALUE · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Premium Compounder
Fundamental score breakdown
U band · FAIR VALUEValuation2/30
Growth10/25
Quality20/20
Balance Sheet8/15
Cash Flow10/10
Piotroski
6/9 (+3)
Penalties
1
Raw sum
54
Why this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
54/100 · legacy band FAIR VALUE
Positive drivers
- FCF yield is supportive at 33.3%.
- Quality contributes 20/20 to the score.
- Cash flow contributes 10/10 to the score.
Main drags
- Fair-value margin of safety is negative at -115.8%.
- Valuation is weaker at 2/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Growth is weaker at 10/25; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Primary lens
Mid-cycle PE/EV/EBITDA using multi-year average margins or earnings.
Secondary checks
Current margin versus 5-year average, balance sheet strength, commodity cycle.
Main risk check
A low trailing PE may mean peak-cycle earnings, not true cheapness.
PE
44.4
PB
1.1
EV/EBITDA
8.9
ROE
30.9%
ROCE
22.2%
FCF Yield
33.3%
Debt/Equity
0.8
MoS
-115.8%
Cyclical/value-trap warning
This sector can look cheap when profits are temporarily high. Check mid-cycle margins/earnings before relying on trailing PE.
Score movement
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Stored run: 21 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
54
Previous: 54
Legacy U-Score band
FAIR VALUE
Previous: FAIR VALUE
Margin of safety
-115.8%
Previous: -116.3%
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
21 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
54
Factor attribution
No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.
Modelled fair value
Graham Number
₹233.24
-49.0% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
20.5
Growth-justified Value
₹161.08
-115.8% MoS
PEG
2.52
Comparable companies
Peers
Business-comparable peers in Energy — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.
Ticker
Name
Why peer
Score
PE
ROE
MoS
Verdict
BPCL
Large
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited
Oil Refining & Marketing
match 86
88
8.1
28.8%
+56%
DEEP VALUE
CHENNPETRO
Large
Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited
Oil Refining & Marketing
match 85
97
5.0
31.8%
+70%
DEEP VALUE
IOC
Large
Indian Oil Corporation Limited
Oil Refining & Marketing
match 79
90
5.4
20.5%
+68%
DEEP VALUE
MRPL
Small
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited
Oil Refining & Marketing
match 60
81
6.8
14.5%
+60%
DEEP VALUE
KIOCL
Small
KIOCL Limited
Oil Refining & Marketing
match 44
18
502.0
0.9%
-55570%
OVERVALUED
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business and thesis
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Thesis intactReviewed 2026-06-03T19:16:02.168Z
Management commentary snapshot
HPCL reported highest ever PAT of ₹17,175 Cr, highest ever market sales of 51.4 MMT, and highest ever refinery throughput of 26.0 MMT in FY26. Revenue from operations was ₹4,78,543 Cr, with a Refinery GRM of US$8.79/bbl.
The company delivered strong FY26 results with record sales and throughput. Strategic investments in refining, petrochemicals, natural gas, and renewables are underway, aiming for significant capacity expansion and a shift towards a diversified energy company. Management claims the debt cycle is past its peak standalone and nearing peak consolidated, targeting a 2x+ jump in EBITDA by FY28.
Growth engines
Refining Capacity Expansion
Total refining capacity to increase from 35.8 MMTPA (2025-26) to 45.3 MMTPA (2027-28), primarily driven by HRRL.
Petrochemicals
2.4 MMTPA Petchem Capacity in HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Ltd (JVC). Petrochemical Marketing started under ‘HP Durapol’ Brand.
Natural Gas
Participation across entire value chain: LNG import facilities, natural gas pipelines, CGD network in 25 GAs, and CNG stations expansion to 3,000 by 2027-28.
Renewables & Biofuels
Renewable capacity target of 2,400 MW by 2027-28 (from 235 MW in 2025-26). Biofuel capacity target of 300 TMT by 2027-28 (from 12.06 TMT).
Capacity and execution
Refining Capacity
Total refining capacity to increase from 35.8 MMTPA (2025-26) to 45.3 MMTPA (2027-28), with HRRL contributing 9 MMTPA.
HRRL Refinery & Petrochemical Complex
9 MMTPA Green Field Refinery & Petrochemical complex (74% HPCL stake) with 91.6% physical progress as of 31-03-2026. Project cost: ₹79,459 Cr.
Marketing Network
Retail Outlets to expand from 25,098 to 26,000 by 2027-28. Pipeline network to expand from 5,440 km to 6,000 km by 2027-28.
Green Hydrogen
A 370 TPA Green Hydrogen Plant commissioned at Visakh Refinery. Plans for 5,000 TPA at Visakh and 4,300 TPA at HRRL by 2029-30.
Tailwinds
Energy Transition Focus
HPCL is committed to Net Zero Scope 1 & 2 emissions by 2040, with an investment of ₹60,000 Cr, driving growth in renewables, biofuels, and green hydrogen.
Diversified Portfolio
Transformation to an Energy Company with significant presence in traditional fuels, natural gas, petrochemicals, green energy, and non-fuels.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Analyst reading lens
Compare YOY
The document provides annual financial and operational data for FY2025-26 and previous fiscal years, making year-over-year comparison most relevant to assess performance trends and strategic progress.
Sector KPIs management disclosed
Market Sales Volume
Highest Ever Market Sales: 51.4 MMT in FY 2025-26.
Refinery Throughput
Highest Ever Refinery Thruput: 26.0 MMT in FY 2025-26.
Refinery Utilization
Mumbai Refinery: 105% (FY26); Visakh Refinery: 107% (FY26); HMEL (JV): 103% (FY26).
Refinery GRM
Refinery GRM: US$ 8.79 / bbl in FY 2025-26.
Management forward view
Strategic Vision
Creating Value and Delivering Growth Responsibly by strengthening existing businesses, leveraging new growth engines, and seizing green & emerging opportunities.
EBITDA Target
Working towards 2x + jump in EBITDA levels by FY28, supported by maturing CAPEX and improved self-sufficiency.
Debt Cycle
Past the Peak Debt Cycle (Standalone) and Nearing Peak Debt (Consolidated), aiming to strengthen key financial and leverage ratios.
Net Zero Commitment
Committed to achieve Net Zero Scope 1 & 2 emissions by 2040, with a dedicated Energy Transition Cell and planned investments of ₹60,000 Cr.
Thesis monitor
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Refining Capacity | 35.8 MMTPA (2025-26) | Achievement of 45.3 MMTPA by 2027-28, particularly HRRL commissioning and ramp-up. |
| EBITDA Levels | ₹33,182 Cr (FY26) | Progress towards the management's target of a 2x+ jump in EBITDA by FY28. |
| Renewable Capacity | 235 MW (2025-26) | Achievement of 2,400 MW by 2027-28 and progress on Net Zero roadmap. |
| Total Debt Equity Ratio | 0.80 (FY26) | Further strengthening of leverage ratios, confirming the 'past peak debt cycle' claim. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trust Score
78Limited evidence · low confidenceTrust Lite
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Limited evidence: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 86th percentile of the scored universe and 74th percentile within Energy. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
This is a financial-behaviour screen, not a claim-tested management reliability verdict.
Computed 21 Oct 2026
management-trust-v1
49 docs text-extracted · 9 concalls text-extracted
Score band
Limited evidence
Financial behaviour is scored, but management claims do not yet have enough outcome checks.
Relative rank
86th percentile
overall median 67 · Energy: 74th pctile, median 73 · Mid: 57th pctile, median 76
Evidence depth
Financial-only
49 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
Claim delivery
Outcome history still building
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Limited evidence · low confidenceWhat it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Can support position sizing if valuation and trend also agree.
Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Promoter
78
strong · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
89
strong · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
73
acceptable · leverage and solvency
Discipline
82
strong · capital discipline
Results
62
acceptable · quarterly consistency
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is 33.3%.
- ▸9 years of positive FCF.
- ▸ROCE is 22.2%.
Trust risks
- ▸1 of the latest 4 quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
- ▸OPM spread across recent quarters is 19%.
- ▸Profit margin is 1.5%.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Continue researching Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
Important announcements & filings
Latest exchange and company disclosures found within the past two years.
Open source ↗
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 4 Aug - Public Notice of 74th Annual General Meeting of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
Source: Bse
Credit rating
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Credit Rating 14 Jul - India Ratings assigned IND A1+ stable rating to HPCL's proposed ₹10,000 crore commercial paper.
Source: Bse
Annual report
Annual Report 2026
Source: Bse
Annual report
Annual Report 2026 from bse
Source: Bse
Annual report
Annual Report 2025
Source: Bse
All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.