Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)
Large CapAuto stocks · Large cap · NSE
Hero MotoCorp is the world's largest 2-wheeler manufacturer, maintaining leadership for 25 consecutive years. The company is strategically focusing on gaining market share in high-growth segments including scooters, electric vehicles (EVs), premium motorcycles, and its global business.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Investable fundamentals, management trust is supportive, price trend argues for patience, and recent execution is consistent.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Bad · 0/100PAT -17% YoY · margin compression · Rev +35% YoY
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹13,126 Cr | +34.9% | +1.1% |
| EBITDA | ₹1,702 Cr | +20.5% | -9.0% |
| Operating margin | 13.0% | -200 bps | -100 bps |
| PAT | ₹1,418 Cr | -16.9% | -3.8% |
| PAT margin | 10.8% | -674 bps | -56 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Hero MotoCorp delivered highest ever Q4 and FY26 revenue, EBITDA, and PAT, driven by strong growth in scooters (+48% YoY), EV volumes (+2.5x YoY), and global business (+41% YoY). ICE business EBITDA margin expanded by 100 bps YoY in Q4.
Management achieved record financial performance in FY26, demonstrating strong execution in targeted growth segments. Strategic investments in capacity expansion, R&D, and brand building are underway. While short-term commodity headwinds are noted, the company aims to mitigate impacts and maintains its medium-term margin guidance.
Scooter Portfolio Expansion
Scooters grew 48% YoY in Q4 FY26. Investments in capacity expansion for Xoom and Destini are underway to capitalize on the scooterization trend.
Electric Vehicle (EV) Business Scale-up
EV scooter volumes expanded 2.5x YoY. Significant R&D and capacity investments are planned, supported by PLI benefits and focus on BOM cost reduction.
Global Business Growth
Global business wholesale grew 41% YoY. The company plans to expand presence in Latin America, Africa, and SAARC geographies, aiming to continue momentum.
Premium Segment Penetration
Harley-Davidson range grew 26% YoY. New exciting launches are planned in premium ranges, leveraging successful product differentiation and brand building.
ICE Scooter Capacity
Destini capacity has been increased by 50%. Xoom capacity is in the process of doubling and will be completed this quarter (Q1 FY27).
EV Capacity Expansion
EV capacity has gone from 15,000 to 25,000 units per month, with plans to further double that capacity before the end of FY27.
Global Parts Center
Over ₹700 crores is committed to building a second global parts center in South India, which will double parts handling capacity.
Positive Demand Momentum
The 2-wheeler sector has started FY27 on a positive note, continuing the momentum seen in the second half of FY26.
Structural Growth Drivers
Urbanization, increasing penetration of e-commerce, and the gig economy continue to drive demand for 2-wheelers as a primary source of mobility.
PLI Scheme for EVs
PLI for 3 EV products covers 60% of the portfolio, with plans to reach 90% coverage, translating to a 13% revenue benefit.
Evolving Macro Environment
The broader economy is navigating short-term uncertainties due to developments in West Asia.
Commodity Cost Headwinds
Commodity headwinds began in March, impacting costs of metals, gas, and certain labor costs. The April price hike of ~2% does not fully cover the high single-digit BOM cost increase.
Fuel Price Hikes in Export Markets
Fuel price hikes in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are impacting demand in those export markets in the short term.
Commodity Price Volatility
Commodity prices are changing daily, making it difficult to quantify the exact impact on margins, which could be transitionary in the short term.
Geopolitical Uncertainties
Developments in West Asia could lead to further increases in transportation costs and potential dampening of demand in affected export markets.
EV Investment Phase Impact on Margins
The EV business is in a build-out phase with significant R&D and capacity investments, which will continue to impact overall EBITDA margins in the near term.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
YoY comparison is crucial for assessing overall growth and annual performance, especially in a seasonal business. QoQ comparison is relevant for tracking sequential momentum in average selling price, EV unit profitability, and the immediate impact of commodity price changes.
Scooter Volume Growth
Scooters saw 48% growth year-on-year in Q4 FY26.
EV Volume Growth
EV scooter volumes expanded 2.5x over the previous year in Q4 FY26.
Global Business Wholesale Growth
Global business wholesale or dispatches saw growth of 41% year-on-year in Q4 FY26.
Premium Motorcycle Growth (Harley-Davidson)
Harley-Davidson range of bikes grew 26% year-on-year in Q4 FY26.
Outgrow Industry in FY27
Management anticipates high single-digit industry growth in FY27 and expects to grow ahead of the industry in both motorcycles and scooters.
Commitment to Medium-Term Margin Guidance
Despite current commodity headwinds, management remains committed to its medium-term EBITDA margin guidance of 14% to 16%.
Continued Strategic Investments
Investments will continue in capacity expansion, brand building, new products (VIDA, premium, scooters), and technology (low-emission powertrains, connected vehicles, AI).
Stronger H1 FY27 Growth Expected
Due to a favorable base effect, management expects first-half growth in FY27 to be stronger than the second half.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Retail Market Share | Appears to have come down due to business mix, despite share gains in individual categories. | Reversal and overall market share gains as high-growth segments (EV, scooters, premium, exports) increase their share in the business mix. |
| EV EBITDA Losses per Unit | Decreasing quarter-on-quarter. | Continued improvement in profitability per unit and progress towards the EV business becoming self-sustainable, supported by PLI and BOM cost reduction. |
| Commodity Cost Impact on Margins | Caused a 100 bps drop in gross margin in Q4 FY26, with a transitionary impact expected in the short term. | Effectiveness of calibrated price increases and accelerated cost-saving programs in mitigating the impact and maintaining the 14-16% EBITDA margin guidance. |
| Capacity Ramp-up and Utilization | Xoom capacity doubling this quarter, EV capacity to double from 25,000 units/month by end of FY27. | Successful commissioning and ramp-up of new capacities for scooters and EVs, indicating strong demand absorption and operational efficiency. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
39BearishSMA20 +8.8% / mo · MACD − · sector -3.3pp vs Nifty (3M)
Technical chart
HEROMOTOCOdaily · 1Y · AUTO-5.2%Daily technical trend read
Bearish setupTrend is weak — long-term trend down. RSI 39.
- Price below SMA200 (long-term downtrend) — short-term bounces likely countertrend.
- SMA20 rising (~8.1% over last month) — short-term momentum positive.
- RSI(14) at 39 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal, histogram expanding negatively — bearish momentum building.
- 17% off 52W high · 13% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
- Price is within 1.2% of the 30-week proxy.
- The 30-week proxy changed +0.1% over 20 sessions.
- The moving-average structure does not confirm Stage 2 or Stage 4.
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 71 · UNDERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 71 · UNDERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Fundamental score breakdown
UNDERVALUEDWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- FCF yield is supportive at 3.6%.
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 51.0%.
Main drags
- Valuation is weaker at 10/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Growth is weaker at 18/25; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Balance sheet is weaker at 11/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Consumer valuation: PE/PEG and brand-quality premium
Consumer franchises can deserve higher multiples, but only when growth quality supports them.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +2 points.
Factor attribution
Modelled fair value
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
High Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 99th percentile of the scored universe and 98th percentile within Auto. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
High Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero.
Management behaviour ranks as unusually reliable. Still verify valuation and cycle risk.
overall median 67 · Auto: 98th pctile, median 74 · Large: 98th pctile, median 73
76 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
High Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is positive at 3.6%.
- ▸12 years of positive FCF.
- ▸Debt/equity is 0.04.
Trust risks
- ▸No major Trust Lite risk flags.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.20
- P/B
- 4.91
- EV/EBITDA
- 13.43
- Market Cap
- 106075.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 28.10%
- ROCE
- 35.20%
- ROA
- 16.41%
- Dividend Y
- 3.49%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 9.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 16.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 12.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 28.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.04
- Interest Coverage
- 89.75×
- Altman Z
- 8.73
- Book Value
- 1080.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 3.62%
- FCF Positive Y
- 12/5
- OCF
- 8315.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 272.33
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 34.73%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 37%
Financial History
Updated 5/9/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
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Peers
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Peers
Business-comparable peers in Auto — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.