IP
IndiaPulse

Hero MotoCorp Limited (HEROMOTOCO)

Large Cap

Auto stocks · Large cap · NSE

Hero MotoCorp is the world's largest 2-wheeler manufacturer, maintaining leadership for 25 consecutive years. The company is strategically focusing on gaining market share in high-growth segments including scooters, electric vehicles (EVs), premium motorcycles, and its global business.

₹5,300
-8.50 · -0.16%
Quote04 Sept, 03:59 pm IST
Fundamentals05 Sept 2026 · screener
Score05 Sept, 10:20 pm IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags02 May 2026
Coverage14/14 · 100%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · Auto P/E 26.5 (n=128)
Data confidence
Fresh enough for analysis
Investor decision lenses

One read, four checks

75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.

Investable fundamentals, management trust is supportive, price trend argues for patience, and recent execution is consistent.

Suggested next step
Add to watchlist
Fundamental setup is interesting, but technical confirmation is weak.
U-Score
UNDERVALUED
71

Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.

Trust
High Trust
87

low confidence · 0/0 claims checked

Technical
Bearish
39

Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.

Result consistency
consistent
87

Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.

Latest result

Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026

Bad · 0/100

PAT -17% YoY · margin compression · Rev +35% YoY

Filed 06 Aug 2026
Open results browser →
MetricThis quarterYoYQoQ
Revenue₹13,126 Cr+34.9%+1.1%
EBITDA₹1,702 Cr+20.5%-9.0%
Operating margin13.0%-200 bps-100 bps
PAT₹1,418 Cr-16.9%-3.8%
PAT margin10.8%-674 bps-56 bps

NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.

Business & thesis

Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary

Business and thesis

Where growth can come from, and what can break the case

Thesis intactReviewed 2026-06-11T21:55:02.207Z
Management commentary snapshot

Hero MotoCorp delivered highest ever Q4 and FY26 revenue, EBITDA, and PAT, driven by strong growth in scooters (+48% YoY), EV volumes (+2.5x YoY), and global business (+41% YoY). ICE business EBITDA margin expanded by 100 bps YoY in Q4.

Management achieved record financial performance in FY26, demonstrating strong execution in targeted growth segments. Strategic investments in capacity expansion, R&D, and brand building are underway. While short-term commodity headwinds are noted, the company aims to mitigate impacts and maintains its medium-term margin guidance.

Growth engines

Scooter Portfolio Expansion

Scooters grew 48% YoY in Q4 FY26. Investments in capacity expansion for Xoom and Destini are underway to capitalize on the scooterization trend.

Electric Vehicle (EV) Business Scale-up

EV scooter volumes expanded 2.5x YoY. Significant R&D and capacity investments are planned, supported by PLI benefits and focus on BOM cost reduction.

Global Business Growth

Global business wholesale grew 41% YoY. The company plans to expand presence in Latin America, Africa, and SAARC geographies, aiming to continue momentum.

Premium Segment Penetration

Harley-Davidson range grew 26% YoY. New exciting launches are planned in premium ranges, leveraging successful product differentiation and brand building.

Capacity and execution

ICE Scooter Capacity

Destini capacity has been increased by 50%. Xoom capacity is in the process of doubling and will be completed this quarter (Q1 FY27).

EV Capacity Expansion

EV capacity has gone from 15,000 to 25,000 units per month, with plans to further double that capacity before the end of FY27.

Global Parts Center

Over ₹700 crores is committed to building a second global parts center in South India, which will double parts handling capacity.

Tailwinds

Positive Demand Momentum

The 2-wheeler sector has started FY27 on a positive note, continuing the momentum seen in the second half of FY26.

Structural Growth Drivers

Urbanization, increasing penetration of e-commerce, and the gig economy continue to drive demand for 2-wheelers as a primary source of mobility.

PLI Scheme for EVs

PLI for 3 EV products covers 60% of the portfolio, with plans to reach 90% coverage, translating to a 13% revenue benefit.

Headwinds

Evolving Macro Environment

The broader economy is navigating short-term uncertainties due to developments in West Asia.

Commodity Cost Headwinds

Commodity headwinds began in March, impacting costs of metals, gas, and certain labor costs. The April price hike of ~2% does not fully cover the high single-digit BOM cost increase.

Fuel Price Hikes in Export Markets

Fuel price hikes in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are impacting demand in those export markets in the short term.

Risk radar

Commodity Price Volatility

Commodity prices are changing daily, making it difficult to quantify the exact impact on margins, which could be transitionary in the short term.

Geopolitical Uncertainties

Developments in West Asia could lead to further increases in transportation costs and potential dampening of demand in affected export markets.

EV Investment Phase Impact on Margins

The EV business is in a build-out phase with significant R&D and capacity investments, which will continue to impact overall EBITDA margins in the near term.

Management accountability

What management said, and what results must prove

Management accountability

What management said, and what results must prove

Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.

Analyst reading lens
Compare BOTH

YoY comparison is crucial for assessing overall growth and annual performance, especially in a seasonal business. QoQ comparison is relevant for tracking sequential momentum in average selling price, EV unit profitability, and the immediate impact of commodity price changes.

Sector KPIs management disclosed

Scooter Volume Growth

Scooters saw 48% growth year-on-year in Q4 FY26.

EV Volume Growth

EV scooter volumes expanded 2.5x over the previous year in Q4 FY26.

Global Business Wholesale Growth

Global business wholesale or dispatches saw growth of 41% year-on-year in Q4 FY26.

Premium Motorcycle Growth (Harley-Davidson)

Harley-Davidson range of bikes grew 26% year-on-year in Q4 FY26.

Management forward view

Outgrow Industry in FY27

Management anticipates high single-digit industry growth in FY27 and expects to grow ahead of the industry in both motorcycles and scooters.

Commitment to Medium-Term Margin Guidance

Despite current commodity headwinds, management remains committed to its medium-term EBITDA margin guidance of 14% to 16%.

Continued Strategic Investments

Investments will continue in capacity expansion, brand building, new products (VIDA, premium, scooters), and technology (low-emission powertrains, connected vehicles, AI).

Stronger H1 FY27 Growth Expected

Due to a favorable base effect, management expects first-half growth in FY27 to be stronger than the second half.

Thesis monitor

Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings

CheckpointCurrent evidenceWhat to verify next
Overall Retail Market ShareAppears to have come down due to business mix, despite share gains in individual categories.Reversal and overall market share gains as high-growth segments (EV, scooters, premium, exports) increase their share in the business mix.
EV EBITDA Losses per UnitDecreasing quarter-on-quarter.Continued improvement in profitability per unit and progress towards the EV business becoming self-sustainable, supported by PLI and BOM cost reduction.
Commodity Cost Impact on MarginsCaused a 100 bps drop in gross margin in Q4 FY26, with a transitionary impact expected in the short term.Effectiveness of calibrated price increases and accelerated cost-saving programs in mitigating the impact and maintaining the 14-16% EBITDA margin guidance.
Capacity Ramp-up and UtilizationXoom capacity doubling this quarter, EV capacity to double from 25,000 units/month by end of FY27.Successful commissioning and ramp-up of new capacities for scooters and EVs, indicating strong demand absorption and operational efficiency.

Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.

Technical timing lens

Trend score and candlestick chart

39Bearish

SMA20 +8.8% / mo · MACD − · sector -3.3pp vs Nifty (3M)

Stock trend: 44
Sector RS: 31
Sector 3M: -4.8% vs Nifty -1.5%

Technical chart

HEROMOTOCOdaily · 1Y · AUTO-5.2%
Latest close ₹5300.00 on 2026-09-04
Bar
-0.4%
RSI
39
MACD hist
-71.43
52W pos
37%
2026-09-04O ₹5319.00H ₹5322.50L ₹5260.00C ₹5300.00Vol 6.1L sh
₹4.61k₹4.96k₹5.30k₹5.65k₹6.00k52L5300.002026-032026-06VolRSIMACD2026-032026-042026-062026-072026-09
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal

Daily technical trend read

Bearish setup

Trend is weak — long-term trend down. RSI 39.

  • Price below SMA200 (long-term downtrend) — short-term bounces likely countertrend.
  • SMA20 rising (~8.1% over last month) — short-term momentum positive.
  • RSI(14) at 39 — falling, no extreme reading.
  • MACD below signal, histogram expanding negatively — bearish momentum building.
  • 17% off 52W high · 13% above 52W low.

Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.

Nifty 500 leadership

Relative Strength & Trend Stage

50
RS percentile
Stage 1 Base / Transition
1M return
-7.4%
3M return
+9.2%
6M return
-1.8%
1Y return
-0.3%
RS 1D
+1
RS 20D
-13
Sector rank
#6
Industry rank
-
Stage evidence
  • Price is within 1.2% of the 30-week proxy.
  • The 30-week proxy changed +0.1% over 20 sessions.
  • The moving-average structure does not confirm Stage 2 or Stage 4.
50-DMA
price below
200-DMA
price below
Sector
weakening
Industry
unranked
Relative-strength line vs Nifty 500 (base 100)
264 observations
04 Sept 2026Value 110.73-0.16%
99107115123131Aug 25Dec 25Apr 26Sept 26111
RS vs Nifty 500111

Valuation & score drivers

U-Score 71 · UNDERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor

71U-SCORE
Top Setup

Fundamental score breakdown

UNDERVALUED
Valuation10/30
Growth18/25
Quality19/20
Balance Sheet11/15
Cash Flow8/10
Piotroski
8/9 (+5)
Penalties
0
Raw sum
71

Why this score?

Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.

71/100 · UNDERVALUED

Positive drivers

  • FCF yield is supportive at 3.6%.
  • Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
  • Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 51.0%.

Main drags

  • Valuation is weaker at 10/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
  • Growth is weaker at 18/25; verify the latest quarterly trend.
  • Balance sheet is weaker at 11/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model

Consumer valuation: PE/PEG and brand-quality premium

Consumer franchises can deserve higher multiples, but only when growth quality supports them.

Consumer PE/PEG
Primary lens
PE and PEG relative to growth, ROE, margins, and brand strength.
Secondary checks
Volume growth, pricing power, distribution, same-store or category growth.
Main risk check
Premium valuation needs durable growth and margin resilience.
PE
19.2
PB
4.9
EV/EBITDA
13.4
ROE
28.1%
ROCE
35.2%
FCF Yield
3.6%
Debt/Equity
0.0
MoS
+51.0%
Score movement

Stored run vs live recompute

This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.

Stored run: 05 Sept 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
71
Previous: 71
Verdict
UNDERVALUED
Previous: UNDERVALUED
Margin of safety
+51.0%
Previous: +51.0%

Score history

12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +2 points.

05 Sept 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
74
71
70
69
69
69
70
71
69
70
69
71

Factor attribution

No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.

Modelled fair value

Graham Number
₹2,572.47
-106.0% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
39.8
Growth-justified Value
₹10,825.12
+51.0% MoS
PEG
0.92

Trust score

Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth

Trust Score
87High Trust · low confidenceTrust Lite

Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.

High Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 99th percentile of the scored universe and 98th percentile within Auto. No major sub-score weakness stands out.

High Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero.

Computed 05 Sept 2026
management-trust-v1
76 docs text-extracted · 36 concalls text-extracted
Score band
High Trust

Management behaviour ranks as unusually reliable. Still verify valuation and cycle risk.

Relative rank
99th percentile

overall median 67 · Auto: 98th pctile, median 74 · Large: 98th pctile, median 73

Evidence depth
Financial-only

76 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.

Claim delivery
Outcome history still building

0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet

How to read this Trust Score

High Trust · low confidence
What it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Can support position sizing if valuation and trend also agree.

Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.

Forensic breakdown

Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.

Promoter
78
strong · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
77
strong · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
96
strong · leverage and solvency
Discipline
98
strong · capital discipline
Results
87
strong · quarterly consistency

Trust positives

  • Promoter pledge is zero.
  • FCF yield is positive at 3.6%.
  • 12 years of positive FCF.
  • Debt/equity is 0.04.

Trust risks

  • No major Trust Lite risk flags.

Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.

Financials

Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history

Fundamentals

Valuation

P/E
19.20
P/B
4.91
EV/EBITDA
13.43
Market Cap
106075.00Cr

Profitability

ROE
28.10%
ROCE
35.20%
ROA
16.41%
Dividend Y
3.49%

Growth (CAGR)

Revenue 5Y
9.00%
EPS 5Y
16.00%
Revenue 3Y
12.00%
EPS 3Y
28.00%

Balance Sheet

Debt/Equity
0.04
Interest Coverage
89.75×
Altman Z
8.73
Book Value
1080.00

Cash Flow

FCF Yield
3.62%
FCF Positive Y
12/5
OCF
8315.00 Cr
EPS TTM
272.33

Shareholding

Promoter Hold
34.73%
Promoter Pledge
0.00%
Momentum 52W
37%

Financial History

Updated 5/9/2026

Revenue

₹ Cr
No data

Net Profit

₹ Cr
No data

Return on Equity

%
No data

Peers

Business-comparable names in Auto, ranked by similarity

Verify on:NSE India ↗
All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.