Bajaj Auto Limited (BAJAJ-AUTO)
Large CapAuto stocks · Large cap · NSE
Bajaj Auto Limited is an Indian two-wheeler and three-wheeler manufacturer. FY26 was a record year with highest ever volumes, revenues, and profits, driven by strong performance across all business units including domestic motorcycles (150cc+), electric vehicles (2W & 3W), and exports (Latam, Asia, KTM, Triumph).
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Mixed fundamentals, management trust is supportive, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is consistent.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Good · 72/100Rev +65% YoY · PAT +44% YoY · +22% QoQ · margin compression
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹21,689 Cr | +65.2% | +21.6% |
| EBITDA | ₹4,528 Cr | +62.1% | +47.3% |
| Operating margin | 21.0% | +0 bps | +400 bps |
| PAT | ₹3,189 Cr | +44.3% | -8.7% |
| PAT margin | 14.7% | -213 bps | -488 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Bajaj Auto reported record FY26 performance with revenues exceeding INR58,000 Cr, EBITDA over INR12,000 Cr (20.5% margin), and PAT above INR9,800 Cr. Q4 FY26 saw 24% YoY volume growth, 32% YoY revenue growth, and 36% YoY PAT growth, with EBITDA margins at 20.8% despite operating challenges.
The company delivered record FY26 results with broad-based growth across segments and strong operational management. However, significant commodity inflation, softening domestic motorcycle demand, and supply chain disruptions pose material near-term challenges to sustaining current margin levels and growth tempo.
Domestic 150cc+ Motorcycle Segment
The 150cc+ segment is the fastest growing, with Bajaj gaining sequential market share month-on-month driven by refreshed Pulsar portfolio (N and NS series grew over twice the industry rate in Q4).
Electric Vehicles (2W & 3W)
Electric category in both 3-wheelers and 2-wheelers will witness continued and potentially increased growth. Bajaj holds #1 position in electric 3-wheelers and Chetak is gaining e-scooter share.
Exports (Latin America & Asia)
Latin America continues to outperform with sustained growth for 11 quarters. Asia recorded double-digit growth due to Sri Lanka, Philippines, and Nepal. Bajaj holds strong competitive positions.
Probiking (KTM & Triumph)
KTM and Triumph delivered record domestic performance in Q4 with combined volumes of nearly 43,000 units (+43% YoY). New 350cc variants and network expansion are driving growth.
Brazil Manufacturing Capacity
Expanded manufacturing capacity in Brazil to 60,000 units per annum, supporting sales of nearly 10,000 units during Q4.
Chetak Electric Scooter Capacity
Current capacity is 50,000 units per month. Management is exploring substantive capacity increase due to unfulfilled demand and strong growth.
KTM and Triumph Showrooms
Rollout of joint KTM and Triumph showrooms has progressed swiftly with 80 such showrooms already operational, driving reach.
Favorable Currency Depreciation
Rupee depreciated through Q4 with realized exchange rate at INR90.6/USD (vs. INR88.3/USD in Q3). Current USD realization rates reaching INR95 are very helpful in managing costs.
Shift to Premium Domestic Segments
Domestic motorcycle growth is expected to come almost entirely from the 125cc+ segment, and even more so from the 150cc+ segment, where Bajaj has strong competitive positions.
Accelerated EV Adoption
Electric category in both 3-wheelers and 2-wheelers will witness not just continuity of growth, but perhaps a further increase in growth, outpacing ICE segments.
Strong Export Market Performance
Latin America continues to outperform, delivering sustained growth. Nigeria reached stability in Q4 with volumes crossing 1 lakh units, equaling FY25 performance.
Sharply Inflationary Commodity Environment
Commodity environment moved to being sharply inflationary in Q1 FY27, with steel up 15%, copper 20%, and aluminum/noble metals up 35-45%.
Softening Domestic Motorcycle Demand
Motorcycle category growth estimated to slow from 20% in Q4 to 7-9% in the near term due to general inflation, increased prices, LPG shortages, and adverse consumer sentiment.
Supply Chain Difficulties
LPG shortage, manpower availability, and outbound logistics to overseas markets have impaired availability to service demand by about 10% to 15%.
Geopolitical Issues in Middle East
Loss of business in the Gulf region (5,000-6,000 units per month) and potential for further disruptions due to geopolitical issues in the Middle East.
Commodity Price Volatility
The commodity situation is 'very volatile and dynamic' with frequent refreshes of cost estimates, making future cost management challenging.
Demand Sensitivity to Price Hikes
Price hikes (partially rolling back GST rate cut benefits) combined with adverse sentiment could lead to postponement of purchases and further impact demand.
Regulatory Enforcement in E-Rick Segment
The E-Rick segment has slowed down due to enforcement of regulations on the streets, impacting growth in this business opportunity.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Q4 results show strong YoY growth across segments, indicating robust recovery and market share gains. QoQ is relevant for sequential momentum in specific segments like domestic motorcycles (H2 recovery) and EV adoption, and for tracking commodity cost impacts.
Volume Growth
Q4 FY26 total volumes reached a new high of 13.7 lakh units, growing 24% year-on-year. FY26 closed with highest ever annual volumes over 5 million units.
Realization
Q4 revenue from operations grew 32% YoY on 24% volume growth, indicating richer sales mix and favorable currency. FY26 exports revenue was highest ever at USD2.2 billion.
Product/Customer Mix
Domestic growth driven by 125cc+ segment, with 150cc+ being the fastest growing. Refreshed Pulsar portfolio (10 new variants) contributes 50% of sales.
Exports Performance
Exports business unit crossed 6 lakh units for the second consecutive quarter, clocking 25% growth YoY. Latin America delivered sustained growth for 11 consecutive quarters, reporting an all-time high.
Gain Share in 125cc+ Segment
Focus on gaining share in the 125cc+ segment, particularly 150cc+, through new product launches and brand development, with new Pulsar range expected in July.
Push Exports to Higher Levels
Aim to move exports needle to 220,000+ units per month, leveraging leadership in Latam sports segment and aggressive outreach in commercial bikes against Chinese competitors.
Deepen EV Leadership
Deepen leadership position in electric business by leveraging wider product portfolio, new launches, and expansion of an exclusive network.
Balance Growth and Profitability
Team will remain focused on balancing growth and profitability in the most optimal way through robust operational management amidst the changed operating environment.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic Motorcycle Growth (125cc+) | 150cc+ segment growing at twice the industry rate in Q4. | Sustained share gains and industry growth in the 125cc+ and 150cc+ segments, especially with new Pulsar launches. |
| Chetak Electric Scooter Capacity Utilization | Capacity of 50,000 units per month, demand unfulfilled. | Achievement of 100% utilization and announcement of substantive capacity expansion plans. |
| Exports Volume Run-Rate | Q4 exports crossed 600,000 units (25% YoY growth). | Ability to push exports to 220,000+ units per month in Q1 FY27 despite geopolitical issues. |
| Commodity Cost Inflation Impact | Estimated 3.5-4% of revenue for Q1 FY27. | Effectiveness of pricing actions, cost savings, and currency tailwinds in mitigating the impact and protecting margins. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
59Neutralfull bull SMA stack · SMA20 +6.8% / mo · MACD − · near 52W high · sector -3.3pp vs Nifty (3M)
Technical chart
BAJAJ-AUTOdaily · 1Y · AUTO+21.6%Daily technical trend read
Mixed signalsSignals are conflicting — long-term uptrend intact. RSI 57. Wait for confirmation.
- Price > SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200 — full bullish stack.
- SMA20 rising (~6.4% over last month) — short-term momentum positive.
- RSI(14) at 57 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal, histogram expanding negatively — bearish momentum building.
- 4% off 52W high · 40% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
- Price is 16.2% above the 30-week proxy.
- The 50-DMA is above the 30-week proxy and its slope is rising +3.1%.
- Both 3-month and 6-month returns are positive.
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 56 · FAIR VALUE · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 56 · FAIR VALUE · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Fundamental score breakdown
FAIR VALUEWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 28.8%.
- Quality contributes 17/20 to the score.
Main drags
- Penalty bucket subtracts 1 points.
- Valuation is weaker at 7/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Cash flow is weaker at 4/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Consumer valuation: PE/PEG and brand-quality premium
Consumer franchises can deserve higher multiples, but only when growth quality supports them.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
Factor attribution
Modelled fair value
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Healthy Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 93rd percentile of the scored universe and 84th percentile within Auto. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
High Trust Lite: Promoter holding is 55%.
Generally investable credibility. Look for weak sub-scores before increasing position size.
overall median 67 · Auto: 84th pctile, median 74 · Large: 83rd pctile, median 73
42 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Healthy Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter holding is 55%.
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸9 years of positive FCF.
- ▸ROCE is 28.2%.
Trust risks
- ▸No major Trust Lite risk flags.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 27.80
- P/B
- 8.58
- EV/EBITDA
- 23.21
- Market Cap
- 327539.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 29.20%
- ROCE
- 28.20%
- ROA
- 15.02%
- Dividend Y
- 1.26%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 18.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 17.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 20.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 21.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.58
- Interest Coverage
- 10.63×
- Altman Z
- 7.58
- Book Value
- 1389.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- —
- FCF Positive Y
- 9/5
- OCF
- 2597.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 420.80
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 55.01%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 86%
Financial History
Updated 5/9/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
Business-comparable names in Auto, ranked by similarity
Peers
Business-comparable names in Auto, ranked by similarity
Peers
Business-comparable peers in Auto — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.