IP
IndiaPulse

HFCL Limited (HFCL)

Large Cap

Telecom stocks · Large cap · NSE

HFCL is a technology enterprise providing optical connectivity, telecom products, defence & aerospace solutions, and digital infrastructure. It focuses on R&D, advanced manufacturing, and backward integration, serving telecom and defence sectors globally with a strong product portfolio.

₹231.44
+11.02 · +5.00%
Quote04 Sept, 03:59 pm IST
Fundamentals05 Sept 2026 · screener
Score05 Sept, 10:20 pm IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags02 May 2026
Coverage13/14 · 93%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · Telecom P/E 37.3 (n=16)
Data confidence
Fresh enough for analysis
Investor decision lenses

One read, four checks

75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.

Weak fundamentals, while price trend supports entry. This looks more like momentum/speculation than a clean fundamental investment setup.

Suggested next step
Check latest quarters
Result consistency is weak; verify whether the thesis is improving or deteriorating.
Weak U-Score but strong trend: momentum may be ahead of fundamentals.
U-Score
OVERVALUED
17

Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.

Trust
Mixed Trust
58

low confidence · 0/0 claims checked

Technical
Bullish
67

Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.

Result consistency
weak
29

Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.

Latest result

Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026

Average · 45/100

Rev +120% YoY · margin expansion

Filed 22 Jul 2026
Open results browser →
MetricThis quarterYoYQoQ
Revenue₹1,915 Cr+119.9%+5.0%
EBITDA₹414 Cr+1378.6%+31.8%
Operating margin22.0%+1870 bps+500 bps
PAT₹246 CrNDF+33.7%
PAT margin12.8%+1618 bps+276 bps

NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.

Business & thesis

Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary

Business and thesis

Where growth can come from, and what can break the case

Thesis intactReviewed 2026-07-23T07:44:58.707Z
Management commentary snapshot

HFCL reported robust Q1FY27 results with Revenue up 119.85% YoY to INR 1,914.98 Cr, EBITDA soaring 937.20% YoY to INR 445.27 Cr (23.25% margin), and PAT at INR 245.64 Cr (12.83% margin) from a loss. Strong order inflows and strategic execution drove significant profitability improvement.

The company has demonstrated strong financial performance in Q1FY27, driven by strategic investments in technology and manufacturing. Significant YoY growth across all key metrics, coupled with a robust and diversified order book, supports the management's positive outlook and increased revenue growth aspiration for FY27.

Growth engines

Optical Connectivity

AI, hyperscale data centres, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure are creating unprecedented demand for advanced optical connectivity.

Defence & Aerospace

Increasing focus on national security and defence modernisation opens significant long-term opportunities for indigenous technology companies.

Product-Led Revenue Mix

Pivoting to a product-led revenue mix while deliberately shifting from low-profit turnkey work, with products now ~85% of revenues.

Global Expansion & Private Sector Focus

Expanding global reach with exports at 56% of revenues and increasing revenue from the private sector to 92% for customer diversification.

Capacity and execution

Optical Fiber Capacity

Optical Fiber capacity is expanding from 28 MN FKM/annum to 33.9 MN FKM/annum.

Optical Fiber Cable Capacity

Optical Fiber Cable capacity is expanding from 34 MN FKM/annum to 42.3 MN FKM/annum.

Optical Fibre Preform Manufacturing

Backward integration into optical fibre preforms with a project capex of INR 580 Cr for 300 MT/annum capacity by July 2029.

Ammunition Manufacturing Complex

INR 275 Cr as Phase 1 for creating a facility for Multi-Mode Hand Grenades (MMHG) in the upcoming 1000 Acre Andhra Ammunition Complex.

Tailwinds

Global Technology Transformation

Artificial Intelligence, hyperscale data centres, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure are creating unprecedented demand for advanced optical connectivity.

National Security & Defence Modernisation

Increasing focus on national security and defence modernisation is opening significant long-term opportunities for indigenous technology companies.

Demand Upcycle for High-Fiber-Count Cables

Hyperscaler, AI, and Data Center demand are driving demand for HFCL’s high-fiber-count cables.

Rebuilding Global Defence Inventories

Defence segment is ready to serve worldwide with ongoing rebuilding of global defence inventories.

Management accountability

What management said, and what results must prove

Management accountability

What management said, and what results must prove

Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.

Analyst reading lens
Compare BOTH

Both YoY and QoQ comparisons are relevant. YoY highlights the substantial recovery and expansion from the previous year's low base, while QoQ demonstrates continued sequential momentum in revenue and profitability, indicating strong operational execution.

Sector KPIs management disclosed

Revenue from Operations

Q1FY27 Revenue from Operations was INR 1,914.98 Cr, up 119.85% YoY and 4.98% QoQ.

EBITDA & EBITDA Margin

Q1FY27 EBITDA was INR 445.27 Cr, up 937.20% YoY and 32.16% QoQ. EBITDA Margin was 23.25%, up 1832 Bps YoY and 478 Bps QoQ.

PAT & PAT Margin

Q1FY27 PAT was INR 245.64 Cr, compared to a loss of INR -29.30 Cr YoY and up 33.17% QoQ. PAT Margin was 12.83%, up 1619 Bps YoY and 272 Bps QoQ.

Total Order Book

Total Order Book stood at INR 26,665 Cr in Q1FY27, up from INR 21,206 Cr in Q4FY26 and INR 11,125 Cr in Q3FY26.

Management forward view

FY27 Revenue Growth Aspiration

Management has increased its FY27 revenue growth aspiration to 40% based on current momentum.

FY27 EBITDA Margin Target

Management aims to achieve an EBITDA margin of over 23% in FY27, already achieved in Q1FY27.

Long-Term EBITDA Margin Expansion

EBITDA margin is targeted to expand from ~16.7% in FY26 to 22-25% by FY29.

Strategic Revenue Mix Targets

Targeting 80-85% Revenue from Product and more than 60% Revenue from Export by FY27.

Thesis monitor

Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings

CheckpointCurrent evidenceWhat to verify next
FY27 Revenue GrowthQ1FY27 Revenue up 119.85% YoYAchievement of 40% revenue growth aspiration for FY27.
EBITDA MarginQ1FY27 EBITDA Margin at 23.25%Sustenance of EBITDA margin above 23% and progress towards 22-25% by FY29.
Order Book ExecutionTotal Order Book of INR 26,665 CrTimely execution and conversion of the strong order book into revenue.
Product & Export Revenue MixProducts ~85%, Exports ~56%Achievement of 80-85% product revenue and >60% export revenue by FY27.

Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.

Technical timing lens

Trend score and candlestick chart

67Bullish

full bull SMA stack · SMA20 +11.7% / mo · MACD − · near 52W high

Stock trend: 78
Sector RS: 51
Sector 3M: -1.2% vs Nifty -1.5%

Technical chart

HFCLdaily · 1Y · AUTO+230.3%
Latest close ₹231.44 on 2026-09-04
Bar
+2.4%
RSI
54
MACD hist
-1.61
52W pos
87%
2026-09-04O ₹226.00H ₹231.44L ₹225.00C ₹231.44Vol 44.0L sh
₹56.13₹108.66₹161.19₹213.72₹266.2552H52L231.442026-032026-06VolRSIMACD2026-032026-042026-062026-072026-09
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal

Daily technical trend read

Mixed signals

Signals are conflicting — long-term uptrend intact. RSI 54. Wait for confirmation.

  • Price > SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200 — full bullish stack.
  • SMA20 rising (~10.5% over last month) — short-term momentum positive.
  • RSI(14) at 54 — falling, no extreme reading.
  • MACD below signal, histogram expanding negatively — bearish momentum building.
  • 10% off 52W high · 287% above 52W low.

Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.

Nifty 500 leadership

Relative Strength & Trend Stage

99
RS percentile
Stage 2 Uptrend
1M return
+11.3%
3M return
+30.0%
6M return
+210.8%
1Y return
+202.7%
RS 1D
0
RS 20D
0
Sector rank
#13
Industry rank
-
Stage evidence
  • Price is 55.1% above the 30-week proxy.
  • The 50-DMA is above the 30-week proxy and its slope is rising +17.3%.
  • Both 3-month and 6-month returns are positive.
50-DMA
price above
200-DMA
price above
Sector
neutral
Industry
unranked
Relative-strength line vs Nifty 500 (base 100)
264 observations
04 Sept 2026Value 312.01+5.00%
68138208278348Aug 25Dec 25Apr 26Sept 26312
RS vs Nifty 500312

Valuation & score drivers

U-Score 17 · OVERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor

17U-SCORE
OVERVALUED

Fundamental score breakdown

OVERVALUED
Valuation0/30
Growth6/25
Quality0/20
Balance Sheet6/15
Cash Flow3/10
Piotroski
6/9 (+3)
Penalties
-1
Raw sum
17

Why this score?

Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.

17/100 · OVERVALUED

Positive drivers

  • Balance sheet contributes 6/15 to the score.
  • Cash flow contributes 3/10 to the score.
  • Growth contributes 6/25 to the score.

Main drags

  • Penalty bucket subtracts 1 points.
  • Fair-value margin of safety is negative at -398.3%.
  • Valuation is weaker at 0/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model

Telecom valuation: EV/EBITDA against ARPU, debt, and capex

Telecom needs enterprise-value and cash-flow framing because leverage is structurally important.

Telecom EV/EBITDA
Primary lens
EV/EBITDA and debt-adjusted cash generation.
Secondary checks
ARPU growth, subscriber quality, spectrum liabilities, capex intensity.
Main risk check
High EBITDA can still be weak equity value if debt and capex absorb cash.
PE
61.9
PB
7.2
EV/EBITDA
28.1
ROE
7.0%
ROCE
10.9%
FCF Yield
Debt/Equity
0.4
MoS
-398.3%
Score movement

Stored run vs live recompute

This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.

Stored run: 05 Sept 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
17
Previous: 17
Verdict
OVERVALUED
Previous: OVERVALUED
Margin of safety
-398.3%
Previous: -398.3%

Score history

12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.

05 Sept 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17

Factor attribution

No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.

Modelled fair value

Graham Number
₹52.1
-344.2% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
12.3
Growth-justified Value
₹46.45
-398.3% MoS
PEG
18.21

Trust score

Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth

Trust Score
58Mixed Trust · low confidenceTrust Lite

Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.

Mixed Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 23rd percentile of the scored universe and 23rd percentile within Telecom. Main check: results consistency is weak at 29/100.

Mixed Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero. Key concern: Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-378 Cr.

Computed 05 Sept 2026
management-trust-v1
151 docs text-extracted · 58 concalls text-extracted
Score band
Mixed Trust

Usable, but needs evidence. Treat guidance with a margin of safety.

Relative rank
23rd percentile

overall median 67 · Telecom: 23rd pctile, median 66 · Large: 13th pctile, median 73

Evidence depth
Financial-only

151 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.

Claim delivery
Outcome history still building

0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet

How to read this Trust Score

Mixed Trust · low confidence
What it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Needs extra due diligence; demand valuation comfort and recent improvement.

Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.

Forensic breakdown

Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.

Promoter
70
acceptable · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
52
watch · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
81
strong · leverage and solvency
Discipline
52
watch · capital discipline
Results
29
weak · quarterly consistency

Trust positives

  • Promoter pledge is zero.
  • 6 years of positive FCF.
  • 3/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth.

Trust risks

  • Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-378 Cr.
  • 2 latest quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
  • Promoter holding fell 1.7%.
  • ROE is low at 7%.

Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.

Financials

Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history

Fundamentals

Valuation

P/E
61.90
P/B
7.22
EV/EBITDA
28.11
Market Cap
35424.00Cr

Profitability

ROE
6.95%
ROCE
10.90%
ROA
6.81%
Dividend Y
0.04%

Growth (CAGR)

Revenue 5Y
2.00%
EPS 5Y
5.00%
Revenue 3Y
1.00%
EPS 3Y
1.00%

Balance Sheet

Debt/Equity
0.36
Interest Coverage
4.60×
Altman Z
7.39
Book Value
32.00

Cash Flow

FCF Yield
FCF Positive Y
6/5
OCF
-378.00 Cr
EPS TTM
3.77

Shareholding

Promoter Hold
28.29%
Promoter Pledge
0.00%
Momentum 52W
87%

Financial History

Updated 5/9/2026

Revenue

₹ Cr
No data

Net Profit

₹ Cr
No data

Return on Equity

%
No data

Peers

Business-comparable names in Telecom, ranked by similarity

Verify on:NSE India ↗
All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.