Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Allotment of ESOP / ESPS 11 Sep
Source: Bse
Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)
Small CapAuto stocks · Small cap · NSE
Happy Forgings Limited operates in Forgings, within the Auto sector. Use the latest filing and company disclosures below to verify its revenue mix and current business drivers.
Data qualityFresh enough for analysisQuote updated 19 Oct, 03:31 pm ISTDetails
Quote19 Oct, 03:31 pm IST
Base fundamentals06 Oct 2026 · screener
Latest result04 Aug, 08:41 pm IST
Score20 Oct, 04:30 am IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags02 May 2026
Coverage13/14 · 93%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · Auto P/E 25.7 (n=127)
Technical timing lens
Trend score and candlestick chart
46NeutralSMA20 -10.8% / mo · MACD −
Stock trend: 44
Sector RS: 49
Sector 3M: -6.3% vs Nifty 500 -5.6%
Auto FPI tailwindNot confirmed
Latest mapped FPI equity flow was not positive. View sector evidence
Technical chart
HAPPYFORGED candles · FIT view+41.2%Latest close ₹1866.80 on 2026-10-19
Bar
+0.4%
RSI
33
MACD hist
-14.24
52W pos
60%
2026-10-19O ₹1858.50H ₹1878.10L ₹1845.10C ₹1866.80Vol 32,649 sh
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal
Market context
Relative performance and chart statistics
Adjusted completed-session prices, rebased to 100
HAPPYFORGENifty AutoNifty 500
- HAPPYFORGE
- +16.1%
- Nifty 500
- -5.6%
- Nifty Auto
- -5.4%
- Vs Nifty 500
- +21.7 pp
Chart stats
19 Oct 2026- From 52W high
- -24.4%
- 52W range position
- 62%
- ATR (14)
- 4.1%
- Volume vs 20D
- 0.35x
- Avg traded value
- ₹18.4 Cr
- 20D price channel
- ₹1,844.9 - ₹2,159.8
₹2,470
₹888.8 - ₹2,470
₹77.2
Latest completed session
20-session average
27.1% annualized volatility
Research snapshot
What the evidence says now
Weak fundamentals, management evidence is still limited to a financial-only Trust Lite signal, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is consistent.
Suggested next step
Research, do not rush
The evidence is not strongly aligned. Compare peers and wait for a cleaner setup.
U-Score
Legacy · WATCHLIST43
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
Latest result
Excellent90
Revenue +26.8% · PAT +37.9% YoY
Technical
Neutral46
Price trend and sector-relative-strength timing.
Valuation
Legacy model-39.5%
Legacy margin-of-safety estimate; the revised evidence label remains in shadow validation.
Trust
Limited evidence75
Financial-only signal; management claim evidence is not sufficient yet.
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Latest result
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Excellent · 90/100Rev +27% YoY · PAT +38% YoY · margin expansion · +6% QoQ · operating leverage
Filed 04 Aug 2026
Open results browser →| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹449 Cr | +26.8% | +5.9% |
| EBITDA | ₹141 Cr | +39.6% | +6.0% |
| Operating margin | 31.0% | +200 bps | +0 bps |
| PAT | ₹91 Cr | +37.9% | +8.3% |
| PAT margin | 20.3% | +163 bps | +46 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 58.00
- P/B
- 8.91
- EV/EBITDA
- 31.96
- Market Cap
- 19005.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 15.00%
- ROCE
- 18.00%
- ROA
- 12.42%
- Dividend Y
- 0.20%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 21.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 28.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 9.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 13.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.16
- Interest Coverage
- 46.36×
- Altman Z
- 8.68
- Book Value
- 226.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- —
- FCF Positive Y
- 2/5
- OCF
- 445.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 34.71
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 78.46%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 70%
Financial History
Updated 20/10/2026
Revenue
₹ CrLatest: 449+5.9% vs prev
Net Profit
₹ CrLatest: 91.0+8.3% vs prev
ROE is shown only in the Annual view — quarterly equity data isn't published.
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Daily technical trend read
Bearish setupTrend is weak — long-term uptrend intact. RSI 33.
- Price above SMA200 (long-term uptrend) but mid-term MAs not aligned.
- SMA20 falling (~12.2% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 33 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- 24% off 52W high · 91% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Nifty 500 leadership
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
92
RS percentile
Stage 2 UptrendEstablished S2
1M return
-13.1%
3M return
+16.1%
6M return
+40.3%
1Y return
+83.0%
RS 1D
0
RS 20D
-3
Sector rank
#3
Industry rank
#30
Stage evidence
- Price is 13.0% above the 30-week proxy.
- The 50-DMA is above the 30-week proxy and its slope is rising +6.0%.
- Both 3-month and 6-month returns are positive.
50-DMA
price below
200-DMA
price above
S2 entered
16 Oct 2025
S2 age
261 trading sessions
Sector
leading
Industry
neutral
Relative-strength line vs Nifty 500 (base 100)
262 observations
19 Oct 2026Value 199.97+1.08%
RS vs Nifty 500200
Valuation & peers
U-Score 43 · legacy U-Score band WATCHLIST · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Valuation & peers
U-Score 43 · legacy U-Score band WATCHLIST · valuation evidence and comparable companies
WATCHLIST
Fundamental score breakdown
U band · WATCHLISTValuation0/30
Growth15/25
Quality11/20
Balance Sheet10/15
Cash Flow2/10
Piotroski
8/9 (+5)
Penalties
0
Raw sum
43
Why this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
43/100 · legacy band WATCHLIST
Positive drivers
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Balance sheet contributes 10/15 to the score.
- Growth contributes 15/25 to the score.
Main drags
- Fair-value margin of safety is negative at -39.5%.
- Valuation is weaker at 0/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Cash flow is weaker at 2/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model
Consumer valuation: PE/PEG and brand-quality premium
Consumer franchises can deserve higher multiples, but only when growth quality supports them.
Primary lens
PE and PEG relative to growth, ROE, margins, and brand strength.
Secondary checks
Volume growth, pricing power, distribution, same-store or category growth.
Main risk check
Premium valuation needs durable growth and margin resilience.
PE
58.0
PB
8.9
EV/EBITDA
32.0
ROE
15.0%
ROCE
18.0%
FCF Yield
—
Debt/Equity
0.2
MoS
-39.5%
Score movement
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Stored run: 20 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
43
Previous: 43
Legacy U-Score band
WATCHLIST
Previous: WATCHLIST
Margin of safety
-39.5%
Previous: -39.5%
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
20 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
Factor attribution
No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.
Modelled fair value
Graham Number
₹420.12
-344.3% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
38.5
Growth-justified Value
₹1,338.07
-39.5% MoS
PEG
2.64
Comparable companies
Peers
Business-comparable peers in Auto — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.
Ticker
Name
Why peer
Score
PE
ROE
MoS
Verdict
BALUFORGE
Small
Balu Forge Industries Limited
Auto Components
match 164
61
22.0
19.6%
+46%
UNDERVALUED
HILTON
Small
Hilton Metal Forging Limited
Auto Components
match 162
44
16.9
2.6%
+58%
WATCHLIST
GANGAFORGE
Small
Ganga Forging Limited
Auto Components
match 159
9
—
-13.2%
—
OVERVALUED
MUNISH
SME
Munish Forge Ltd.
Auto Components
match 152
40
20.6
10.4%
+47%
WATCHLIST
FORGEAUTO
SME
Forge Auto International Ltd.
Auto Components
match 152
37
8.9
17.7%
-15%
WATCHLIST
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business and thesis
Issuer presentation review pending
Happy Forgings Limited operates in Forgings, within the Auto sector. Use the latest filing and company disclosures below to verify its revenue mix and current business drivers. The structured result feed currently covers the quarter ended 30 Jun 2026. Investor presentations and earnings-call PDFs will be added as issuer-backed evidence before management claims appear here.
Trust Score
75Limited evidence · low confidenceTrust Lite
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Limited evidence: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 78th percentile of the scored universe and 56th percentile within Auto. Main check: cash conversion is weak at 55/100.
This is a financial-behaviour screen, not a claim-tested management reliability verdict.
Computed 05 Sept 2026
management-trust-v1
53 docs text-extracted · 20 concalls text-extracted
Score band
Limited evidence
Financial behaviour is scored, but management claims do not yet have enough outcome checks.
Relative rank
78th percentile
overall median 67 · Auto: 56th pctile, median 74 · Small: 80th pctile, median 66
Evidence depth
Financial-only
53 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
Claim delivery
Outcome history still building
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Limited evidence · low confidenceWhat it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Can support position sizing if valuation and trend also agree.
Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Promoter
86
strong · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
55
watch · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
89
strong · leverage and solvency
Discipline
60
acceptable · capital discipline
Results
95
strong · quarterly consistency
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter holding is 78.5%.
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸4/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth.
- ▸4/4 latest quarters had positive YoY PAT growth.
Trust risks
- ▸No major Trust Lite risk flags.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Continue researching Happy Forgings Limited
Important announcements & filings
Latest exchange and company disclosures found within the past two years.
Open source ↗
Concall transcriptAug 2026
Aug 2026 · Transcript
Source: Bse
Investor presentationAug 2026
Aug 2026 · PPT
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Analyst / Investor Meet - Intimation 11 Aug
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 5 Aug
Source: Bse
Credit rating
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Credit Rating 7 Jul - ICRA reaffirmed Happy Forgings' AA/A1+ ratings for Rs. 485 crore bank facilities.
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 3 Jul
Source: Bse
AnnouncementJun 2026
Jun 2026 · Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Press Release / Media Release 4 Aug - Q1 FY27 results: revenue ₹449 crore, EBITDA ₹141 crore, PAT ₹91 crore, all up YoY.
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 24 Jun
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Allotment of ESOP / ESPS 17 Jun
Source: Bse
Concall transcriptMay 2026
May 2026 · Transcript
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 22 May
Source: Bse
All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.