Concall transcriptAug 2026
Aug 2026 · Transcript
Source: Nse
Alpex Solar Ltd. (ALPEXSOLAR)
SME CapIndustrials stocks · SME cap · NSE
Alpex Solar is an integrated renewable equipment manufacturer headquartered in Greater Noida with almost two decades of experience. Primary revenue driver is solar module manufacturing, supported by in-house aluminum frame production, EPC, and IPP solutions. The company is expanding into TOPCon solar cell, glass, wafer, and ingot manufacturing.
Data qualityFresh enough for analysisQuote updated 19 Oct, 03:31 pm ISTDetails
Quote19 Oct, 03:31 pm IST
Base fundamentals20 Oct 2026 · screener
Latest result16 Aug, 12:39 am IST
Score20 Oct, 04:19 pm IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags24 Apr 2026
Coverage13/14 · 93%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · Industrials P/E 26.2 (n=537)
Technical timing lens
Trend score and candlestick chart
31Bearishfull bear SMA stack · SMA20 -6.9% / mo · MACD − · near 52W low
Stock trend: 18
Sector RS: 50
Sector 3M: -6.3% vs Nifty 500 -5.6%
Industrials FPI tailwindNot confirmed
Latest mapped FPI equity flow was not positive. View sector evidence
Technical chart
ALPEXSOLARD candles · FIT view-26.3%Latest close ₹763.30 on 2026-10-19
Bar
-1.6%
RSI
31
MACD hist
-6.31
52W pos
16%
2026-10-19O ₹775.55H ₹775.55L ₹762.05C ₹763.30Vol 39,300 sh
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal
Market context
Relative performance and chart statistics
Adjusted completed-session prices, rebased to 100
ALPEXSOLARNifty India ManufacturingNifty 500
- ALPEXSOLAR
- -15.1%
- Nifty 500
- -5.6%
- Nifty India Manufacturing
- -5.8%
- Vs Nifty 500
- -9.5 pp
Chart stats
19 Oct 2026- From 52W high
- -42.1%
- 52W range position
- 16%
- ATR (14)
- 3.9%
- Volume vs 20D
- 1.00x
- Avg traded value
- ₹3.2 Cr
- 20D price channel
- ₹762.1 - ₹913.5
₹1,319
₹660 - ₹1,319
₹29.6
Latest completed session
20-session average
23.9% annualized volatility
Research snapshot
What the evidence says now
Strong fundamentals, management evidence is still limited to a financial-only Trust Lite signal, but price trend argues for patience. Suitable for staggered entry or watchlist confirmation rather than aggressive buying.
Strong U-Score but weak trend: timing is not confirming the thesis.
Suggested next step
Add to watchlist
Fundamental setup is interesting, but technical confirmation is weak.
U-Score
Legacy · DEEP VALUE80
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
Latest result
Bad0
Revenue +32.4% · PAT -4.8% YoY
Technical
Bearish31
Price trend and sector-relative-strength timing.
Valuation
Legacy model+75.2%
Legacy margin-of-safety estimate; the revised evidence label remains in shadow validation.
Trust
Limited evidence75
Financial-only signal; management claim evidence is not sufficient yet.
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Latest result
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Bad · 0/100PAT -5% YoY · margin compression · Rev +32% YoY
Filed 30 Jun 2026
Open results browser →| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹503 Cr | +32.4% | -25.1% |
| EBITDA | ₹75 Cr | +19.0% | -15.7% |
| Operating margin | 15.0% | -100 bps | +200 bps |
| PAT | ₹40 Cr | -4.8% | -24.5% |
| PAT margin | 8.0% | -310 bps | +6 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.71
- P/B
- 3.47
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.89
- Market Cap
- 1950.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 52.80%
- ROCE
- 44.80%
- ROA
- 14.45%
- Dividend Y
- —
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 72.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 133.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 125.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 278.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.96
- Interest Coverage
- 9.46×
- Altman Z
- 4.60
- Book Value
- 220.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- —
- FCF Positive Y
- 2/5
- OCF
- -116.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 78.34
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 65.90%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 16%
Financial History
Updated 19/10/2026
Revenue
₹ CrLatest: 2,223+185.0% vs prev
Net Profit
₹ CrLatest: 202+143.4% vs prev
Return on Equity
%Latest: 35.9-6.5% vs prev
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Daily technical trend read
Bearish setupTrend is weak — long-term trend down. RSI 31.
- Price < SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200 — full bearish stack.
- SMA20 falling (~7.4% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 31 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- 42% off 52W high · 16% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Nifty 500 leadership
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
16
RS percentile
Stage 1 Base / Transition
1M return
-16.7%
3M return
-15.1%
6M return
-27.1%
1Y return
-35.2%
RS 1D
-1
RS 20D
-25
Sector rank
#2
Industry rank
-
Stage evidence
- Price is 15.0% below the 30-week proxy without full trend alignment.
- The 30-week proxy changed +1.3% over 20 sessions.
- The moving-average structure does not confirm Stage 2 or Stage 4.
50-DMA
price below
200-DMA
price below
Sector
leading
Industry
unranked
Relative-strength line vs Nifty 500 (base 100)
262 observations
19 Oct 2026Value 65.65-1.16%
RS vs Nifty 50066
Valuation & peers
U-Score 80 · legacy U-Score band DEEP VALUE · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Valuation & peers
U-Score 80 · legacy U-Score band DEEP VALUE · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Top Setup
Fundamental score breakdown
U band · DEEP VALUEValuation22/30
Growth25/25
Quality20/20
Balance Sheet8/15
Cash Flow1/10
Piotroski
6/9 (+3)
Penalties
1
Raw sum
80
Why this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
80/100 · legacy band DEEP VALUE
Positive drivers
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 75.2%.
- Growth contributes 25/25 to the score.
- Quality contributes 20/20 to the score.
Main drags
- Cash flow is weaker at 1/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Balance sheet is weaker at 8/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Valuation is weaker at 22/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model
Blended valuation: PE, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, and balance-sheet checks
For this sector, IndiaPulse uses a blended lens rather than relying on a single valuation ratio.
Primary lens
PE, EV/EBITDA, margin of safety, and FCF yield together.
Secondary checks
ROE/ROCE, growth, cash conversion, leverage, promoter risk.
Main risk check
One cheap metric is not enough if quality or cash flow is weak.
PE
9.7
PB
3.5
EV/EBITDA
6.9
ROE
52.8%
ROCE
44.8%
FCF Yield
—
Debt/Equity
1.0
MoS
+75.2%
Score movement
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Stored run: 20 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
80
Previous: 80
Legacy U-Score band
DEEP VALUE
Previous: DEEP VALUE
Margin of safety
+75.2%
Previous: +75.2%
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +1 points.
20 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
77
77
77
77
77
77
77
77
77
77
79
80
Factor attribution
No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.
Modelled fair value
Graham Number
₹622.72
-22.6% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
39.3
Growth-justified Value
₹3,078.76
+75.2% MoS
PEG
0.05
Comparable companies
Peers
Business-comparable peers in Industrials — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.
Ticker
Name
Why peer
Score
PE
ROE
MoS
Verdict
APS
SME
Australian Premium Solar (India) Limited
Industrials
match 126
76
8.2
46.0%
+80%
DEEP VALUE
GGBL
SME
Ganesh Green Bharat Ltd.
Solar EPC
match 126
89
7.0
31.0%
+81%
DEEP VALUE
SAHAJSOLAR
SME
Sahaj Solar Ltd.
Industrials
match 124
71
6.5
24.0%
+84%
UNDERVALUED
WEBELSOLAR
Micro
Websol Energy System Limited
Solar Manufacturing
match 123
79
9.6
66.9%
+77%
DEEP VALUE
WAAREEINDO
Small
Indosolar Limited
Solar Manufacturing
match 121
95
5.1
151.0%
+87%
DEEP VALUE
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business and thesis
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Thesis intactReviewed 2026-10-15T07:18:24.952Z
Management commentary snapshot
Alpex Solar reported Q1 FY27 revenue of Rs. 500 crores, with EBITDA of Rs. 80 crores (15.5% margin) and PAT of Rs. 40 crores (8% margin). Management attributes strong performance to increased module capacity and operational efficiencies in a competitive market.
Alpex Solar delivered strong Q1 FY27 results, outperforming peers in a competitive module market due to selective order execution and diversified business. The imminent commissioning of the 2.2 GW TOPCon cell line is critical for margin expansion and long-term competitiveness, aligning with government's 'Atmanirbharta' policy for solar value chain integration.
Growth engines
TOPCon Solar Cell Manufacturing
Commissioning 2.2 GW TOPCon G12R cell line with up to 26.5% efficiency, targeting 35-40% EBITDA margins, starting production around Sept 15, 2026.
Backward Integration into Wafer & Ingot
Started process for 2.5 GW ingot and wafer manufacturing, with building almost ready and 70-80% of technology/machinery selection done, operational by ALWM enforcement.
EPC and IPP Solutions
Deployed over 26,000 solar water pumps, aggressively working towards deploying 100 MW of IPP projects and 115 MW of EPC installations.
Module Capacity Expansion
Module capacity is 2.4 GW and soon to be 3.6 GW; upgrading to increase capacity by another 300-400 MW.
Capacity and execution
TOPCon Solar Cell Line
2.2 GW capacity, production starting around September 15, 2026, with first invoice expected around September 19 or 20, 2026.
Aluminum Frame Manufacturing
Expanding capacity to 18,000 tons per annum from current 12,000 metric tons a year.
Wafer and Ingot Manufacturing
2.5 GW capacity, building is almost ready, and part production should be ready when ALWM (ALMM List-III) is enforced (June 30, 2028, or 15 GW wafer manufacturing).
Module Capacity Upgrade
Upgrading the module capacity by removing old machines and installing new ones to increase capacity by another 300 to 400 megawatt.
Tailwinds
Government Policy Support
MNRE's ALMM List-II, ALCM, and ALWM initiatives, coupled with Prime Minister Modi's emphasis on 'Atmanirbharta', strongly support domestic solar manufacturing.
High Demand for Solar Cells
The market has an extremely high appetite for solar cells, with no glut foreseen for at least the next two to three years.
Shift to High-Efficiency Cells
Industry demand is shifting towards higher efficiency TOPCon cells (25.5-26.6%) from Mono PERC (23%), favoring Alpex's new TOPCon line.
Diversified Business Model
Own EPC for solar pumps and orders from Coal India contribute to better margins, helping navigate competitive module market.
Headwinds
Competitive Module Market
The market has been competitive, with the 'plain vanilla module business' becoming difficult for survival without cell integration.
Industry Overcapacity in Modules
India has 150 GW of module capacity but only 35 GW of cell capacity, implying 100 GW of module manufacturers will struggle.
Higher Input Costs in India
Indian manufacturers face higher raw material costs, interest rates, and electricity costs compared to Chinese competitors.
Cell Line Commissioning Delay
A fire incident, though not large, damaged critical areas of the plant, causing an almost one-month delay in cell line commissioning.
Risk radar
Policy Stability
While government intent is clear, any future shifts in protectionist policies (ALMM, ALCM, ALWM) could impact the domestic market advantage.
Technology Obsolescence
Rapid evolution of solar cell technology poses a risk, though the company's Generation 3 TOPCon is considered newer and depreciation is conservative.
Execution Risk for New Capacities
Successful ramp-up and integration of the new cell, wafer, and ingot capacities are crucial for realizing projected margins and market position.
Funding for Future Expansions
Plans for 5 GW solar glass, wafer, and ingot manufacturing may require additional funding, though current strategy involves minimal debt and potential equity raise after cell operations visibility.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Analyst reading lens
Compare BOTH
For an industrial company involved in manufacturing and project execution, both year-on-year growth (for overall market trends and seasonality) and quarter-on-quarter momentum (for project execution, capacity ramp-up, and operational efficiencies) are crucial for a comprehensive performance assessment.
Sector KPIs management disclosed
Revenue
Q1 FY27 revenue closed strong at Rs. 500 crores. FY26 revenue was over Rs. 2,200 crores.
EBITDA
Q1 FY27 EBITDA was almost Rs. 80 crores, sustaining a margin of 15.5%. FY26 EBITDA margin was 14.7%.
PAT
Q1 FY27 PAT was Rs. 40 crores, sustaining a margin of 8%. FY26 PAT margin was 9%.
Capex (Cell Line)
Total Capex incurred for the 2.2 gigawatt TOPCon cell manufacturing facility is almost Rs. 890 crores.
Management forward view
Future Margin Outlook
Expects to sustain or exceed current EBITDA and PAT margins, as cell manufacturing commands 35-40% EBITDA and will contribute from next month.
Industry Consolidation
Predicts that only players well-entrenched in the complete value chain will survive and thrive, while non-integrated module manufacturers will suffer.
Complete Value Chain Integration
Strategic focus on manufacturing the entire solar supply chain in India (panels, cells, frames, ingots, wafers) to ensure energy security and competitiveness.
Main Board Migration
On track to file for migration to the main board around February 15, 2027, with approval typically taking two to three months.
Thesis monitor
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| TOPCon Cell Line Commissioning & Ramp-up | Production starting around September 15, 2026, with first invoice expected around September 19 or 20, 2026. | Actual production ramp-up, achievement of 26.5% cell efficiency, and significant contribution to H2 FY27 revenue and margins. |
| Wafer & Ingot Project Progress | Building almost ready for 2.5 GW capacity, 70-80% of technology partner and machinery selection completed. | Active initiation of the manufacturing process post cell line commissioning and firm timelines for operational readiness by ALWM enforcement. |
| Kusum Scheme Order Wins | Received Rs. 350 crores in orders, targeting Rs. 500 crores for FY27. | New tender announcements and order wins to surpass the FY27 target, indicating continued strength in this segment. |
| Main Board Migration | Plan to file for migration by February 15, 2027. | Actual filing of documents and subsequent approval from exchanges within the expected 2-3 month timeframe. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trust Score
75Limited evidence · low confidenceTrust Lite
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Limited evidence: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 78th percentile of the scored universe and 76th percentile within Industrials. Main check: cash conversion is weak at 40/100.
This is a financial-behaviour screen, not a claim-tested management reliability verdict.
Computed 05 Sept 2026
management-trust-v1
9 docs text-extracted · 5 concalls text-extracted
Score band
Limited evidence
Financial behaviour is scored, but management claims do not yet have enough outcome checks.
Relative rank
78th percentile
overall median 67 · Industrials: 76th pctile, median 68 · SME: 94th pctile, median 64
Evidence depth
Financial-only
9 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
Claim delivery
Outcome history still building
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Limited evidence · low confidenceWhat it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Can support position sizing if valuation and trend also agree.
Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Promoter
86
strong · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
40
weak · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
81
strong · leverage and solvency
Discipline
98
strong · capital discipline
Results
79
strong · quarterly consistency
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter holding is 65.9%.
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸ROCE is 43.5%.
- ▸4/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth.
Trust risks
- ▸Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-116 Cr.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Continue researching Alpex Solar Ltd.
Important announcements & filings
Latest exchange and company disclosures found within the past two years.
Open source ↗
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Investor Presentation 14 Aug - Alpex Solar Limited has informed about Investor Presentation
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Annual reportMar 2026
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All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.