Alpex Solar Ltd. (ALPEXSOLAR)
SME CapIndustrials stocks · SME cap · NSE
Alpex Solar Ltd. is an integrated solar PV manufacturer with over two decades of expertise. It manufactures solar modules, aluminum frames, and offers EPC/IPP solutions and solar water pumps. The company is strategically backward integrating into solar cells, wafers, ingot, and glass to become a fully integrated player.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Strong fundamentals, management trust is supportive, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is consistent.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Bad · 0/100PAT -5% YoY · margin compression · Rev +32% YoY
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹503 Cr | +32.4% | -25.1% |
| EBITDA | ₹75 Cr | +19.0% | -15.7% |
| Operating margin | 15.0% | -100 bps | +200 bps |
| PAT | ₹40 Cr | -4.8% | -24.5% |
| PAT margin | 8.0% | -310 bps | +6 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Alpex Solar reported robust FY26 results with revenue up 2.85x YoY to Rs.2,223 crores, EBITDA up 2.56x to Rs.327 crores, and PAT up 2.41x to Rs.201 crores. Q4 FY26 revenue more than doubled YoY to Rs.671 crores, with PAT at Rs.53 crores, despite raw material and freight challenges.
The company demonstrates strong financial growth and strategic foresight with aggressive backward integration plans into cells, wafers, ingot, and glass, aligning with government policies. While short-term raw material and freight issues impacted Q4, the long-term growth drivers appear robust, supporting the investment thesis.
2.2 GW TOPCon Solar Cell Line
The Kosi Mathura facility will commence full-scale production of 2.2 GW G12R TOPCon solar cells within 90 days (August 2026), with expected EBITDA margins of 35-36% on cell business.
Backward Integration into Wafer, Ingot & Glass
Plans to set up 5 GW solar glass and 5 GW ingot/wafer lines by FY2030, strengthening backward integration and moving towards a fully insulated manufacturing ecosystem.
Module Capacity Expansion
Module capacity is growing from 2.4 GW to 3.6 GW, with plans to increase capacity to 5-5.5 GW using the latest technology.
Government Policies (ALMM, ALCM, ALWM)
Policies like ALMM List-I (modules), ALMM List-II (cells), and ALMM List-III (wafer/ingot) enforce domestic manufacturing, creating a favorable environment for integrated players.
2.2 GW G12R TOPCon Solar Cell Line
Landmark facility in Kosi Mathura, spanning over 9 lakh sq. ft., will commence full-scale production within 90 days (August 2026).
Module Capacity
Module capacity is growing from 2.4 GW to 3.6 GW. Further expansion to 5-5.5 GW with latest technology is being considered.
Aluminum Frame Line
Current 12,000 MT capacity will be expanded to at least double or triple within FY27, funded by internal accruals.
Ingot & Wafer Line
A 200 MW pilot project will be operational by April 2027. A 2.5 GW manufacturing facility will be operational by June 2028, with balance expansion to 5 GW by FY2030.
Government's 'Make in India' Policy
ALMM List-II (cells) from June 1, 2026, and ALWM (wafer/ingot) from June 2028, eliminate competition from Chinese imports for domestic manufacturers.
India's Energy Independence Drive
Solar has become the least cost solution for power generation, fastest to implement, and reliable, meeting extra demand during summer and geopolitical events.
Strong Domestic Demand
Demand within India is much more rewarding, leading the company to not focus much on US exports currently.
Raw Material Availability & Cost
Glass availability is challenged, and EVA/Wax sheet also face trouble. These issues, along with the Iran war, impacted Q3-Q4 performance.
Volatile Freight Rates
Container freights have increased significantly from $1,200 to $3,600-$4,000, creating havoc with rates and availability.
Technology Evolution
The solar business technology keeps shifting (e.g., perovskite still experimental), requiring continuous adaptation and investment to remain competitive.
Capital Intensity of Expansion
Backward integration into cell, wafer, ingot, and glass manufacturing is capital-intensive and time-consuming, requiring significant funding.
Industry Oversupply Concerns
There is a lot of talk of overcapacity in the industry, which could make it difficult for smaller or marginal players to survive.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
YoY comparison is essential for assessing overall annual growth and long-term trends. QoQ comparison is relevant to understand sequential momentum and the immediate impact of operational challenges like raw material availability and freight costs.
Revenue
FY26 revenue grew 2.85x YoY to Rs.2,223 crores. Q4 FY26 revenue more than doubled YoY to Rs.671 crores, growing steadily from Rs.380 crores in Q1 FY26 to Rs.672 crores in Q4 FY26.
EBITDA
FY26 EBITDA scaled 2.56x YoY to Rs.327 crores. Q4 FY26 EBITDA was Rs.93 crores, with a healthy margin of almost 14%. EBITDA grew consistently QoQ through FY26.
PAT
FY26 PAT grew 2.41x YoY to Rs.201 crores. Q4 FY26 PAT was Rs.53 crores, up from Rs.35 crores in Q4 FY25. PAT grew consistently QoQ through FY26.
EBITDA Margin
FY26 EBITDA margin expanded from 6.5% in FY23 to nearly 15%. Q4 FY26 EBITDA margin was almost 14%.
FY27 Revenue Guidance
Management expects FY27 revenue to exceed Rs.3,000 crores, surpassing the previous guidance of 2x growth annually, driven by the operational cell line.
Integrated Manufacturer Status
With backward integrations, the company aims to be an integrated manufacturer, almost decoupled from vagaries of policies or competition, sustaining profitability and growth.
Main Board Migration
The company will be eligible to migrate to the main board on February 15, 2027, and plans to submit papers immediately.
BESS Segment Exploration
The company is studying the Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) segment and awaiting policy clarity on mandatory domestic cell manufacturing for BESS.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Kosi Cell Line Commissioning | Expected by August 2026 | Timely commencement of full-scale production and ramp-up of the 2.2 GW TOPCon solar cell line. |
| Wafer & Ingot Pilot Project | 200 MW pilot project planned by April 2027 | Progress on the pilot project and subsequent commissioning of the 2.5 GW facility by June 2028. |
| EBITDA Margin on Cell Business | Expected 35-36% | Actual EBITDA margins achieved on the cell business post-commissioning, and its impact on overall company margins. |
| Main Board Migration | Eligible on Feb 15, 2027 | Submission of papers and approval for migration to the main board. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
54NeutralMACD +
Technical chart
ALPEXSOLARdaily · 1Y · AUTO+24.2%Daily technical trend read
Bullish setupTrend is constructive — long-term uptrend intact. RSI 59.
- Price above SMA200 (long-term uptrend) but mid-term MAs not aligned.
- SMA20 roughly flat — short-term momentum stalled.
- RSI(14) at 59 — rising, no extreme reading.
- MACD above signal, histogram expanding — bullish momentum building.
- 35% off 52W high · 35% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 77 · DEEP VALUE · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 77 · DEEP VALUE · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Fundamental score breakdown
DEEP VALUEWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 71.3%.
- Growth contributes 25/25 to the score.
- Quality contributes 20/20 to the score.
Main drags
- Cash flow is weaker at 1/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Balance sheet is weaker at 8/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Valuation is weaker at 20/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Blended valuation: PE, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, and balance-sheet checks
For this sector, IndiaPulse uses a blended lens rather than relying on a single valuation ratio.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
Factor attribution
Modelled fair value
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Healthy Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 78th percentile of the scored universe and 76th percentile within Industrials. Main check: cash conversion is weak at 40/100.
High Trust Lite: Promoter holding is 65.9%. Key concern: Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-116 Cr.
Generally investable credibility. Look for weak sub-scores before increasing position size.
overall median 67 · Industrials: 76th pctile, median 68 · SME: 94th pctile, median 64
9 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Healthy Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter holding is 65.9%.
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸ROCE is 43.5%.
- ▸4/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth.
Trust risks
- ▸Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-116 Cr.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.30
- P/B
- 4.04
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.78
- Market Cap
- 2272.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 52.00%
- ROCE
- 43.50%
- ROA
- 14.45%
- Dividend Y
- —
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 72.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 132.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 125.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 276.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.96
- Interest Coverage
- 9.46×
- Altman Z
- 4.83
- Book Value
- 220.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- —
- FCF Positive Y
- 2/5
- OCF
- -116.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 78.34
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 65.90%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 32%
Financial History
Updated 5/9/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
Business-comparable names in Industrials, ranked by similarity
Peers
Business-comparable names in Industrials, ranked by similarity
Peers
Business-comparable peers in Industrials — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.