IP
IndiaPulse

Natco Pharma Limited (NATCOPHARM)

Small Cap

Pharma stocks · Small cap · NSE

Natco Pharma Limited is an Indian pharmaceutical company engaged in manufacturing and marketing of finished dosage formulations (domestic and exports), active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), and crop health science products. The company focuses on generic product development for regulated markets and invests in novel therapies.

₹828.65
-9.65 · -1.15%
Quote04 Sept, 03:59 pm IST
Fundamentals05 Sept 2026 · screener
Score05 Sept, 10:20 pm IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags02 May 2026
Coverage13/14 · 93%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · Pharma P/E 34.6 (n=184)
Data confidence
Fresh enough for analysis
Investor decision lenses

One read, four checks

75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.

Strong fundamentals, management trust is acceptable, but price trend argues for patience. Suitable for staggered entry or watchlist confirmation rather than aggressive buying.

Suggested next step
Add to watchlist
Fundamental setup is interesting, but technical confirmation is weak.
Strong U-Score but weak trend: timing is not confirming the thesis.
U-Score
DEEP VALUE
77

Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.

Trust
Mixed Trust
64

low confidence · 0/0 claims checked

Technical
Bearish
37

Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.

Result consistency
weak
5

Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.

Latest result

Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026

Bad · 0/100

Rev -45% YoY · PAT -57% YoY · margin compression

Filed 30 Jun 2026
Open results browser →
MetricThis quarterYoYQoQ
Revenue₹735 Cr-44.7%-0.5%
EBITDA₹186 Cr-67.4%+45.3%
Operating margin25.0%-1800 bps+800 bps
PAT₹206 Cr-57.1%-23.4%
PAT margin28.0%-809 bps-837 bps

NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.

Business & thesis

Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary

Business and thesis

Where growth can come from, and what can break the case

Thesis under stressReviewed 2026-06-16T07:41:27.940Z
Management commentary snapshot

Q4FY26 consolidated revenue declined to INR 8,169 Mn (down 36.5% YoY), with EBITDA margin at 25.1% (vs 47.7% YoY). FY26 revenue was INR 43,759 Mn (down 8.5% YoY), with EBITDA margin at 39.6% (vs 53.3% YoY). PAT for Q4FY26 was INR 2,690 Mn, boosted by a one-time tax benefit. Export formulations saw a significant YoY decline.

The significant YoY decline in export formulations, which is the largest revenue segment, has led to a substantial drop in overall revenue and profitability for both Q4FY26 and FY26. While domestic formulations show growth and new products are launched, the core export business performance is concerning, putting the growth thesis under stress.

Current business mix

Revenue by Segment (FY26)

Latest issuer-disclosed distribution across 5 reported categories.

Businessmix
Export formulation66.0%
Domestic Formulation17.0%
Crop Health Sciences2.8%
API7.8%
Others10.1%
Growth engines

US Generic Launches

Multiple new generic launches in the US market, including Pomalidomide, Everolimus, and Bosentan.

Robust US Pipeline

Strong Para IV pipeline with over 20 FTFs (incl. Sole and Shared) for the US market.

Domestic Formulations Growth

Consistent double-digit YoY growth in the domestic formulations segment.

Strategic Investments in NCE/Cell & Gene Therapy

Investments in eGenesis, Cellogen Therapeutics, Stero Therapeutics, and NRC-2694 for future advanced therapies.

Tailwinds

New Product Introductions

Recent launches of high-value generics in the US and India are expected to contribute to future revenue.

Diversified Pipeline

Extensive pipeline of Para IV products and investments in novel therapies provide long-term growth avenues.

Strategic Acquisition

Acquisition of a 35.75% stake in Adcock Ingram Holdings Limited, South Africa, expands international presence.

Headwinds

Declining Export Formulations

Significant YoY revenue decline in the largest segment, Pharma Export Formulations, impacting overall performance.

Margin Compression

Substantial contraction in EBITDA and PAT margins YoY, indicating pricing pressure or higher costs.

Overall Revenue Contraction

Total consolidated revenue declined YoY for both the quarter and the full fiscal year.

Risk radar

Regulatory Environment

Changes in regulatory norms could impact product approvals and market access.

Competition in Generics

Intense competition in the US generics market can lead to pricing erosion and impact profitability.

R&D Investment Risk

Investments in novel therapies (NCE, Cell & Gene Therapy) are long-term, high-risk ventures with uncertain returns.

Dependence on Key Products

Performance heavily reliant on successful launches and sustained sales of key generic products.

Management accountability

What management said, and what results must prove

Management accountability

What management said, and what results must prove

Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.

Analyst reading lens
Compare BOTH

Both YoY and QoQ comparisons are essential. YoY highlights the significant decline in export formulations and overall profitability against a strong prior year. QoQ shows sequential trends in revenue and margins.

Sector KPIs management disclosed

Domestic Formulations Revenue

Q4FY26: INR 1,087 Mn (up 9.4% YoY); FY26: INR 4,409 Mn (up 10.2% YoY).

Pharma Export Formulations Revenue

Q4FY26: INR 5,396 Mn (down 48.7% YoY); FY26: INR 32,345 Mn (down 14.0% YoY).

EBITDA Margin

Q4FY26: 25.1% (vs 47.7% YoY); FY26: 39.6% (vs 53.3% YoY).

PAT Margin

Q4FY26: 32.9% (vs 31.5% YoY, includes one-time tax benefit); FY26: 32.4% (vs 39.4% YoY).

Management forward view

Xenotransplantation

eGenesis is committed to ending the global transplant shortage, with the first human transplant of a genetically engineered pig kidney done in March 2024.

CAR-T Therapy

Cellogen Therapeutics expects first human dosing for Leukemia to begin shortly in India, having received GMP manufacturing approvals.

Head and Neck Cancer Trial

Patient recruitment is in progress for the Phase 2 clinical trial of NRC-2694 in the US and India.

Thesis monitor

Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings

CheckpointCurrent evidenceWhat to verify next
Export Formulations RevenueQ4FY26 at INR 5,396 Mn (down 48.7% YoY)Stabilization and growth in export formulations revenue.
EBITDA MarginFY26 at 39.6% (down from 53.3% YoY)Reversal of margin contraction and sustained improvement.
US Product Launch ContributionPomalidomide, Everolimus, Bosentan launchedRevenue contribution and market share capture from new US generic launches.
NCE/Cell & Gene Therapy ProgressClinical trials ongoing/startingPositive clinical trial results and further development milestones for advanced therapy investments.

Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.

Technical timing lens

Trend score and candlestick chart

37Bearish

full bear SMA stack · SMA20 -6.4% / mo · RSI oversold · MACD − · near 52W low · sector +2.2pp vs Nifty (3M)

Stock trend: 22
Sector RS: 60
Sector 3M: +0.7% vs Nifty -1.5%

Technical chart

NATCOPHARMdaily · 1Y · AUTO-17.2%
Latest close ₹828.65 on 2026-09-04
Bar
-1.2%
RSI
29
MACD hist
-3.42
52W pos
9%
2026-09-04O ₹839.00H ₹841.80L ₹826.50C ₹828.65Vol 4.5L sh
₹806.49₹916.57₹1.03k₹1.14k₹1.25k52H828.652026-032026-06VolRSIMACD2026-032026-042026-062026-072026-09
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal

Daily technical trend read

Mixed signals

Signals are conflicting — long-term trend down. RSI 29. Wait for confirmation.

  • Price < SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200 — full bearish stack.
  • SMA20 falling (~6.8% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
  • RSI(14) at 29 — oversold zone; bounce conditions.
  • MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
  • 32% off 52W high · 5% above 52W low.

Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.

Nifty 500 leadership

Relative Strength & Trend Stage

32
RS percentile
Stage 1 Base / Transition
1M return
-9.6%
3M return
-4.2%
6M return
-18.5%
1Y return
-2.8%
RS 1D
-2
RS 20D
-14
Sector rank
#1
Industry rank
#5
Stage evidence
  • Price is 15.1% below the 30-week proxy without full trend alignment.
  • The 30-week proxy changed +0.5% over 20 sessions.
  • The moving-average structure does not confirm Stage 2 or Stage 4.
50-DMA
price below
200-DMA
price below
Sector
leading
Industry
leading
Relative-strength line vs Nifty 500 (base 100)
264 observations
04 Sept 2026Value 90.53-1.16%
8396110124138Aug 25Dec 25Apr 26Sept 2691
RS vs Nifty 50091

Valuation & score drivers

U-Score 77 · DEEP VALUE · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor

77U-SCORE
Top Setup

Fundamental score breakdown

DEEP VALUE
Valuation23/30
Growth23/25
Quality9/20
Balance Sheet12/15
Cash Flow4/10
Piotroski
8/9 (+5)
Penalties
1
Raw sum
77

Why this score?

Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.

77/100 · DEEP VALUE

Positive drivers

  • Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
  • Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 71.2%.
  • Growth contributes 23/25 to the score.

Main drags

  • Cash flow is weaker at 4/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
  • Quality is weaker at 9/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
  • Valuation is weaker at 23/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model

Healthcare valuation: PE/EVEBITDA with regulatory and pipeline checks

Healthcare valuation needs both earnings quality and regulatory/pipeline context.

Pharma PE/EVEBITDA
Primary lens
PE and EV/EBITDA adjusted for product mix and R&D/pipeline quality.
Secondary checks
USFDA risk, launch pipeline, margin trend, domestic vs export mix.
Main risk check
Regulatory setbacks or one-off product cycles can distort valuation.
PE
13.0
PB
1.6
EV/EBITDA
12.5
ROE
16.9%
ROCE
17.1%
FCF Yield
Debt/Equity
0.1
MoS
+71.2%
Score movement

Stored run vs live recompute

This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.

Stored run: 05 Sept 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
77
Previous: 77
Verdict
DEEP VALUE
Previous: DEEP VALUE
Margin of safety
+71.2%
Previous: +71.2%

Score history

12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +6 points.

05 Sept 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
76
76
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
77

Factor attribution

No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.

Modelled fair value

Graham Number
₹860.42
+3.7% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
45.0
Growth-justified Value
₹2,875.05
+71.2% MoS
PEG
0.48

Trust score

Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth

Trust Score
64Mixed Trust · low confidenceTrust Lite

Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.

Mixed Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 42nd percentile of the scored universe and 31st percentile within Pharma. Main check: results consistency is weak at 5/100.

Healthy Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero. Key concern: 2 latest quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.

Computed 05 Sept 2026
management-trust-v1
125 docs text-extracted · 37 concalls text-extracted
Score band
Mixed Trust

Usable, but needs evidence. Treat guidance with a margin of safety.

Relative rank
42nd percentile

overall median 67 · Pharma: 31st pctile, median 70 · Small: 47th pctile, median 66

Evidence depth
Financial-only

125 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.

Claim delivery
Outcome history still building

0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet

How to read this Trust Score

Mixed Trust · low confidence
What it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Acceptable, but check the weakest sub-score before increasing exposure.

Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.

Forensic breakdown

Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.

Promoter
78
strong · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
67
acceptable · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
96
strong · leverage and solvency
Discipline
58
watch · capital discipline
Results
5
weak · quarterly consistency

Trust positives

  • Promoter pledge is zero.
  • 8 years of positive FCF.
  • Debt/equity is 0.08.

Trust risks

  • 2 latest quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
  • ROCE trend is -9.6%.
  • 1/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth.
  • 1/4 latest quarters had positive YoY PAT growth.

Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.

Financials

Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history

Fundamentals

Valuation

P/E
13.00
P/B
1.61
EV/EBITDA
12.46
Market Cap
14842.00Cr

Profitability

ROE
16.90%
ROCE
17.10%
ROA
10.34%
Dividend Y
0.60%

Growth (CAGR)

Revenue 5Y
15.00%
EPS 5Y
28.00%
Revenue 3Y
15.00%
EPS 3Y
26.00%

Balance Sheet

Debt/Equity
0.08
Interest Coverage
22.87×
Altman Z
6.89
Book Value
515.00

Cash Flow

FCF Yield
FCF Positive Y
8/5
OCF
1768.00 Cr
EPS TTM
63.89

Shareholding

Promoter Hold
49.41%
Promoter Pledge
0.00%
Momentum 52W
9%

Financial History

Updated 5/9/2026

Revenue

₹ Cr
No data

Net Profit

₹ Cr
No data

Return on Equity

%
No data

Peers

Business-comparable names in Pharma, ranked by similarity

Verify on:NSE India ↗
All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.