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IndiaPulse

Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL)

Large Cap

Energy stocks · Large cap · NSE

Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) is one of India's largest City Gas Distribution (CGD) companies, operating over 8,320 Kms of pipeline and 518 CNG stations. It serves 1.28mn CNG vehicles and 3.21mn+ PNG households across Mumbai, Thane, Raigarh, Ratnagiri, Latur, Osmanabad, Chitradurga & Davanagere.

₹1,096.6
+30.20 · +2.83%
Quote04 Sept, 03:58 pm IST
Fundamentals05 Sept 2026 · screener
Score05 Sept, 10:20 pm IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags15 Aug 2026
Coverage14/14 · 100%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · Energy P/E 13.0 (n=19)
Data confidence
Fresh enough for analysis
Investor decision lenses

One read, four checks

75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.

Weak fundamentals, management trust is acceptable, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is weak.

Suggested next step
Check latest quarters
Result consistency is weak; verify whether the thesis is improving or deteriorating.
U-Score
OVERVALUED
30

Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.

Trust
Healthy Trust
70

low confidence · 2/4 claims checked

Technical
Neutral
47

Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.

Result consistency
weak
39

Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.

Latest result

Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026

Bad · 0/100

PAT -40% YoY · margin compression · Rev +14% YoY · +16% QoQ

Filed 30 Jul 2026
Open results browser →
MetricThis quarterYoYQoQ
Revenue₹2,373 Cr+13.9%+15.6%
EBITDA₹342 Cr-31.6%+32.6%
Operating margin14.0%-1000 bps+100 bps
PAT₹193 Cr-39.5%+48.5%
PAT margin8.1%-718 bps+179 bps

NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.

Business & thesis

Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary

Business and thesis

Where growth can come from, and what can break the case

Thesis under stressReviewed 2026-06-13T07:25:17.531Z
Management commentary snapshot

MGL reported a significant decline in Q4 FY26 profitability with PAT down 45.56% YoY and 34.68% QoQ, and EBITDA down 34.09% YoY and 26.05% QoQ. Full-year FY26 PAT fell 18.67% YoY despite a 13.48% increase in net revenue, impacted by higher gas costs.

While MGL achieved revenue growth for FY26, the substantial decline in Q4 and full-year PAT and EBITDA, driven by rising gas costs and potentially stagnant realizations, puts the profitability thesis under stress. The company's ability to pass on costs and maintain margins will be key.

Current business mix

Sales Volume Composition – Q4 FY 26

Latest issuer-disclosed distribution across 4 reported categories.

Businessmix
CNG71.7%
Domestic12.9%
Commercial3.4%
Industrial11.9%
Growth engines

Infrastructure Exclusivity/Reach

Over 8,320 Kms Pipeline with 518 CNG filing stations provides a strong network advantage.

Strong Customer Base

Serving 1.28mn CNG vehicles and 3.21mn+ PNG households provides a large, captive market.

Consistent Track Record

The company has demonstrated >30 years of consistent growth.

Capacity and execution

Pipeline Length

Cumulative pipeline length includes 737 Km of Steel and 7,584 Km of PE pipeline.

CNG Stations

The company operates a cumulative total of 518 CNG stations.

PNG Household Connections

MGL has 3,213,904 cumulative PNG household connections.

Industrial & Commercial Customers

The company serves 5,924 cumulative industrial and commercial customers.

Tailwinds

Attractive Fuel Economics

CNG and Commercial PNG are price competitive compared to alternative liquid fuels like petrol, diesel, and commercial LPG.

Secured Gas Availability

MGL has a diversified sourcing strategy including APM, HPHT, and Term RLNG.

Priority Segment Focus

Majority of sales are from CNG and D-PNG, with 100% APM allocation available for D-PNG.

Risk radar

General Economic Conditions

Management identifies general economic conditions as a potential risk that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Competitive Product and Pricing Pressures

Management identifies competitive product and pricing pressures as a potential risk.

Regulatory Developments

Management identifies regulatory developments as a potential risk.

Management accountability

What management said, and what results must prove

Management accountability

What management said, and what results must prove

Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.

Nov 2025
Analyst reading lens
Compare BOTH

The presentation provides both full-year (FY25 vs FY26) and quarterly (Q4 FY25, Q3 FY26, Q4 FY26) data. Full-year provides an annual overview of growth, while quarterly data highlights recent momentum and the sharp decline in Q4 profitability.

Sector KPIs management disclosed

Total Sales Volume

Total sales volume for FY26 was 4.585 MMSCMD, up from 4.235 MMSCMD in FY25.

CNG Sales Volume

CNG sales volume for FY26 was 3.267 MMSCMD, up from 3.047 MMSCMD in FY25.

DPNG Sales Volume

DPNG sales volume for FY26 was 0.590 MMSCMD, up from 0.556 MMSCMD in FY25.

Industrial & Commercial Sales Volume

Industrial & Commercial sales volume for FY26 was 0.727 MMSCMD, up from 0.632 MMSCMD in FY25.

Thesis monitor

Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings

CheckpointCurrent evidenceWhat to verify next
EBITDA Margins17.61% (FY26), 12.69% (Q4 FY26)Stabilization or improvement in margins, indicating effective cost pass-through or lower gas costs.
Total Sales Volume Growth4.585 MMSCMD (FY26)Sustained growth across CNG, DPNG, and Industrial & Commercial segments.
Customer Additions3.21mn+ PNG households, 1.28mn CNG vehiclesContinued expansion in new PNG connections and CNG vehicle conversions.

Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.

Show extracted source claims
margin outlookcontradictedquantified

EBITDA per SCM for Q3 FY26 can be considered around INR8.5.

Timeframe: Q3 FY26Confidence: medium

"My guess is at least for Q3, you can hold on or you can consider INR8.5"

Outcome check: OPM moved from 16.0% to average 15.0% (-1.0 pp).

order inflownot yet verifiablequantified

A long-term HPHT contract of almost 12 million is likely to be available in January 2026.

Timeframe: January 2026Direction: increaseConfidence: medium

"likely availability of HPHT, almost 12 million, I think, long-term contract is likely to come up in the month of January 2026."

margin outlookcontradicted

MGL will certainly have margin improvement in Q4 FY26 once long-term HPHT contracts come.

Timeframe: Q4 FY26Direction: improvementConfidence: high

"long-term contracts, once it comes, Q4, certainly, we will have improvement."

Outcome check: OPM moved from 16.0% to average 15.0% (-1.0 pp).

operational efficiencynot yet verifiable

MGL will soon convert spot HPHT/RLNG purchases into term contracts.

Timeframe: soonConfidence: high

"we will be soon converting into term contract."

Technical timing lens

Trend score and candlestick chart

47Neutral

MACD −

Stock trend: 43
Sector RS: 54
Sector 3M: -0.8% vs Nifty -1.5%

Technical chart

MGLdaily · 1Y · AUTO+0.0%
Latest close ₹1096.60 on 2026-09-04
Bar
+2.8%
RSI
48
MACD hist
-4.03
52W pos
41%
2026-09-04O ₹1067.00H ₹1101.60L ₹1067.00C ₹1096.60Vol 2.9L sh
₹882.40₹979.20₹1.08k₹1.17k₹1.27k52L1096.602026-032026-06VolRSIMACD2026-032026-042026-062026-072026-09
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal

Daily technical trend read

Mixed signals

Signals are conflicting — long-term trend down. RSI 48. Wait for confirmation.

  • Price below SMA200 (long-term downtrend) — short-term bounces likely countertrend.
  • SMA20 roughly flat — short-term momentum stalled.
  • RSI(14) at 48 — rising, no extreme reading.
  • MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
  • 20% off 52W high · 22% above 52W low.

Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.

Nifty 500 leadership

Relative Strength & Trend Stage

32
RS percentile
Stage 1 Base / Transition
1M return
-3.8%
3M return
+3.5%
6M return
+4.4%
1Y return
-19.6%
RS 1D
+2
RS 20D
-1
Sector rank
#8
Industry rank
-
Stage evidence
  • Price is within 0.2% of the 30-week proxy.
  • The 30-week proxy changed +0.4% over 20 sessions.
  • The moving-average structure does not confirm Stage 2 or Stage 4.
50-DMA
price below
200-DMA
price below
Sector
neutral
Industry
unranked
Relative-strength line vs Nifty 500 (base 100)
264 observations
04 Sept 2026Value 78.44+2.83%
71798694101Aug 25Dec 25Apr 26Sept 2678
RS vs Nifty 50078

Valuation & score drivers

U-Score 30 · OVERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor

30U-SCORE
OVERVALUED

Fundamental score breakdown

OVERVALUED
Valuation4/30
Growth2/25
Quality2/20
Balance Sheet11/15
Cash Flow6/10
Piotroski
7/9 (+5)
Penalties
0
Raw sum
30

Why this score?

Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.

30/100 · OVERVALUED

Positive drivers

  • Piotroski is strong at 7/9.
  • Balance sheet contributes 11/15 to the score.
  • Cash flow contributes 6/10 to the score.

Main drags

  • Fair-value margin of safety is negative at -139.9%.
  • Growth is weaker at 2/25; verify the latest quarterly trend.
  • Quality is weaker at 2/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model

Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE

Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.

Cyclical normalized
Primary lens
Mid-cycle PE/EV/EBITDA using multi-year average margins or earnings.
Secondary checks
Current margin versus 5-year average, balance sheet strength, commodity cycle.
Main risk check
A low trailing PE may mean peak-cycle earnings, not true cheapness.
PE
15.1
PB
1.7
EV/EBITDA
6.5
ROE
12.2%
ROCE
17.0%
FCF Yield
2.5%
Debt/Equity
0.0
MoS
-139.9%
Cyclical/value-trap warning
This sector can look cheap when profits are temporarily high. Check mid-cycle margins/earnings before relying on trailing PE.
Score movement

Stored run vs live recompute

This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.

Stored run: 05 Sept 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
30
Previous: 30
Verdict
OVERVALUED
Previous: OVERVALUED
Margin of safety
-139.9%
Previous: -139.9%

Score history

12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: -1 points.

05 Sept 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
46
46
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
30

Factor attribution

No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.

Modelled fair value

Graham Number
₹1,029.94
-6.5% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
6.3
Growth-justified Value
₹456.97
-139.9% MoS
PEG

Trust score

Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth

Trust Score
70Healthy Trust · low confidenceTrust Lite

Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.

Healthy Trust: Management has 0% delivered/partly-delivered outcomes on 2 checked claims, with 2 adverse claim outcomes. It ranks around the 63rd percentile of the scored universe and 37th percentile within Energy. Main check: results consistency is weak at 39/100.

Healthy Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero. Key concern: 3 latest quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.

Computed 05 Sept 2026
management-trust-v1
113 docs text-extracted · 72 concalls text-extracted
Score band
Healthy Trust

Generally investable credibility. Look for weak sub-scores before increasing position size.

Relative rank
63rd percentile

overall median 67 · Energy: 37th pctile, median 74 · Large: 41st pctile, median 73

Evidence depth
Financial-only

113 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.

Claim delivery
0% delivered or partly delivered

2/4 claims checked · 2 contradicted/failed claims

How to read this Trust Score

Healthy Trust · low confidence
What it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Acceptable, but check the weakest sub-score before increasing exposure.

Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.

Forensic breakdown

Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.

Promoter
78
strong · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
77
strong · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
96
strong · leverage and solvency
Discipline
50
watch · capital discipline
Results
39
weak · quarterly consistency

Trust positives

  • Promoter pledge is zero.
  • FCF yield is positive at 2.5%.
  • 4 years of positive FCF.
  • Debt/equity is 0.03.

Trust risks

  • 3 latest quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
  • ROCE trend is -7.7%.
  • 0/4 latest quarters had positive YoY PAT growth.

Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.

Financials

Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history

Fundamentals

Valuation

P/E
15.10
P/B
1.69
EV/EBITDA
6.46
Market Cap
10832.00Cr

Profitability

ROE
12.20%
ROCE
17.00%
ROA
7.96%
Dividend Y
2.74%

Growth (CAGR)

Revenue 5Y
-2.00%
EPS 5Y
-2.00%
Revenue 3Y
9.00%
EPS 3Y
-2.00%

Balance Sheet

Debt/Equity
0.03
Interest Coverage
58.55×
Altman Z
5.21
Book Value
651.00

Cash Flow

FCF Yield
2.53%
FCF Positive Y
4/5
OCF
1162.00 Cr
EPS TTM
72.42

Shareholding

Promoter Hold
32.50%
Promoter Pledge
0.00%
Momentum 52W
41%

Financial History

Updated 5/9/2026

Revenue

₹ Cr
No data

Net Profit

₹ Cr
No data

Return on Equity

%
No data

Peers

Business-comparable names in Energy, ranked by similarity

Verify on:NSE India ↗
All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.