Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)
Large CapMetals stocks · Large cap · NSE
Hindalco Industries is a global leader in aluminium and copper, including its subsidiary Novelis. It focuses on sustainable practices, circular solutions, and a greener energy mix, with significant operations in India and a strong commitment to ESG leadership.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Mixed fundamentals, management trust is acceptable, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is mixed.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Excellent · 100/100Rev +32% YoY · PAT +75% YoY · margin expansion · +9% QoQ · operating leverage
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹84,825 Cr | +32.1% | +8.6% |
| EBITDA | ₹13,932 Cr | +76.2% | +39.1% |
| Operating margin | 16.0% | +400 bps | +300 bps |
| PAT | ₹7,013 Cr | +75.2% | +170.0% |
| PAT margin | 8.3% | +204 bps | +495 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Hindalco reported strong Q4 FY26 operational performance in India businesses, with consolidated EBITDA up 11% YoY. However, consolidated PAT declined 51% YoY due to exceptional items related to Novelis's Oswego plant fires and tariffs, partially offset by Sierre flood insurance recoveries.
The thesis remains intact, supported by robust performance in India operations and strategic capacity expansions. Novelis's recovery from the Oswego incident and its long-term guidance provide confidence, though increased debt for growth projects warrants monitoring.
Hindalco (India) Business Sales Mix by Geography (Q4 FY26)
Latest issuer-disclosed distribution across 2 reported categories.
Strong Domestic Demand
Indian aluminium demand up 9% YoY, copper demand up 5% YoY in Q4 FY26, driven by Auto, Electricals, Building & Construction.
Aluminium Downstream Expansion
Extrusion shipments up 28%, FRP up 16% in Q4 FY26; Aditya FRP scaling up, Battery Enclosure fully ramped.
Novelis Strategic Growth
Bay Minette Cold Mill commissioning started in March, on track for H2 CY26; long-term $600+/ton EBITDA guidance intact.
Cost Optimization & Circularity
Novelis delivered $125mn cost savings in FY26, targeting $350-400mn by FY28; aims for 75% recycled content by 2030.
Novelis Bay Minette Cold Mill
Commissioning started in March, on track for H2 CY26.
Captive Coal Mines (India)
Chakla (H1 FY27), Bandha (FY27), Meenakshi (FY29) with various stages of approval/box cut done.
Aditya Alumina Refinery
Target FY28, +30% construction completed.
Aditya Aluminium Smelter Ph 1 (181Kt)
Target FY28, +90% PO placed for packages.
Global Aluminium Deficit
Global deficit likely to widen to ~1.5 mt in CY26 (pre-conflict: 0.3 mt) due to conflict in West Asia, driving up LME.
Strong Indian Market Demand
Strong demand growth led by electrical, packaging, and auto for aluminium, and building & construction for copper.
Favorable Macros & Realizations
Resilient operational performance and favorable macros, along with higher Sulphuric acid realization, supported India business EBITDA.
Geopolitical Risks & Global Slowdown
Heightened geopolitical risks contribute to a modest slowdown in global GDP growth projections for 2026-27.
Global Inflationary Pressures
Global inflation projected to pause disinflation trajectory, rising slightly due to higher energy/food prices and supply-side pressures.
Novelis Operational Disruptions
Novelis Q4 FY26 EBITDA negatively impacted by $53mn from Oswego fires and $27mn tariffs.
Lower TC/RC
Copper segment EBITDA impacted by lower TC/RC despite strong operational performance and higher Sulphuric acid realization.
Commodity Price Volatility
Global and Indian demand-supply conditions, finished goods prices, and feedstock prices are key factors affecting operations.
Regulatory & Economic Changes
Changes in Government regulations, tax regimes, and economic developments in India and operating countries pose risks.
Operational Disruptions
Factors like litigation, labor negotiations, and unforeseen events (e.g., Oswego fire) can impact operations and financial results.
Geopolitical Instability
Heightened geopolitical risks can impact global GDP growth and commodity markets.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
YoY comparison is essential for assessing annual trends and the impact of commodity cycles. QoQ is crucial for tracking sequential operational momentum, utilization rates, and the progress of project execution in the capital-intensive metals sector.
Aluminium LME ($/tonne)
Q4 FY26: $3,195. Largest ever supply shock driving up LME.
India Aluminium Demand
Q4 FY26: 1,561 Kt, up 9% YoY, primarily led by Auto & Electricals.
India Copper Refined Market Demand
Q4 FY26: 402 KT, up ~5% YoY, mainly driven by Building & Construction.
Hindalco (India) Aluminium Upstream EBITDA ($/Ton)
Q4 FY26: $1,756, up 4% QoQ; FY26: $1,583, up 9% YoY.
Novelis Long-term Guidance
Long-term $600+/ton EBITDA guidance intact; Oswego hot mill expected to restart in next few weeks.
Novelis Cost Savings
Targeting $350-400 million total cost savings by end of FY28, with $125 million achieved in FY26.
India Business Expansion
India business aims to 'Double Down' and grow 4x by FY30 through various upstream and downstream projects.
Sustainability Commitment
Committed to 'Zero Harm' with safety initiatives and recognized as a global sustainability leader in S&P Global Yearbook 2026.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Novelis Adjusted EBITDA/Ton | $495 (Q4 FY26) | Recovery post-Oswego restart and progress towards $600+/ton guidance. |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 1.83x (Mar-26) | Deleveraging as strategic growth projects ramp up and generate cash flows. |
| India Business Project Commissioning | Various stages of construction/PO placement | Timely commissioning and ramp-up of new capacities (e.g., Chakla, Aditya Alumina/Smelter). |
| Novelis Cost Savings | $125 million in FY26 | Progress towards $350-400 million target by FY28. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
62BullishSMA20 +6.5% / mo · MACD − · sector +2.7pp vs Nifty (3M)
Technical chart
HINDALCOdaily · 1Y · AUTO+5.9%Daily technical trend read
Mixed signalsSignals are conflicting — long-term uptrend intact. RSI 46. Wait for confirmation.
- Price above SMA200 (long-term uptrend) but mid-term MAs not aligned.
- SMA20 rising (~6.1% over last month) — short-term momentum positive.
- RSI(14) at 46 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal, histogram expanding negatively — bearish momentum building.
- 14% off 52W high · 38% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
- 12.1% below the 52-week closing high after prior strength.
- The 30-week proxy has stalled (+1.2% over 20 sessions).
- Price has not yet confirmed a full Stage 4 downtrend.
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 58 · FAIR VALUE · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 58 · FAIR VALUE · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Fundamental score breakdown
FAIR VALUEWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 54.7%.
- Growth contributes 20/25 to the score.
Main drags
- Quality is weaker at 4/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Cash flow is weaker at 4/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Balance sheet is weaker at 7/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +1 points.
Factor attribution
Modelled fair value
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Mixed Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 56th percentile of the scored universe and 46th percentile within Metals. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
Healthy Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero. Key concern: 2 latest quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
Usable, but needs evidence. Treat guidance with a margin of safety.
overall median 67 · Metals: 46th pctile, median 70 · Large: 32nd pctile, median 73
227 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Mixed Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸9 years of positive FCF.
- ▸4/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth.
- ▸OPM spread across recent quarters is 4%.
Trust risks
- ▸2 latest quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.90
- P/B
- 1.66
- EV/EBITDA
- 6.53
- Market Cap
- 227195.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 13.00%
- ROCE
- 13.20%
- ROA
- 4.76%
- Dividend Y
- 0.49%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 16.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 35.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 7.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 19.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.73
- Interest Coverage
- 11.08×
- Altman Z
- 2.60
- Book Value
- 608.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- —
- FCF Positive Y
- 9/5
- OCF
- 10250.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 72.99
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 34.67%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 62%
Financial History
Updated 5/9/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
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Peers
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Peers
Business-comparable peers in Metals — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.