Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Analyst / Investor Meet - Intimation 11 Sep - Hindalco to attend CITIC CLSA 33rd Investors' Forum 2026 in Hong Kong on September 21-22.
Source: Bse
Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)
Large CapMetals stocks · Large cap · NSE
Hindalco Industries is a global leader in aluminium and copper, including its subsidiary Novelis. It focuses on sustainable practices, circular solutions, and a greener energy mix, with significant operations in India and a strong commitment to ESG leadership.
₹888.9
-11.55 · -1.28%
Market cap ₹1,98,430 Cr
Data qualityFresh enough for analysisQuote updated 21 Oct, 01:17 pm ISTDetails
Quote21 Oct, 01:17 pm IST
Base fundamentals14 Oct 2026 · screener
Latest result16 Aug, 01:47 am IST
Score21 Oct, 04:30 am IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags02 May 2026
Coverage13/14 · 93%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · Metals P/E 23.2 (n=92)
Technical timing lens
Trend score and candlestick chart
36BearishSMA20 -7.9% / mo · MACD −
Stock trend: 29
Sector RS: 45
Sector 3M: -5.8% vs Nifty 500 -6.0%
Metals FPI tailwindNot confirmed
Latest mapped FPI equity flow was not positive. View sector evidence
Technical chart
HINDALCOD candles · FIT view-17.3%TODAY · PROVISIONALLatest price ₹888.90 on 2026-10-21
Today's candle is provisional from the latest intraday quote; completed-candle scans remain unchanged.
Bar
-1.5%
RSI
36
MACD hist
-0.54
52W pos
29%
2026-10-21O ₹902.00H ₹912.05L ₹886.80C ₹888.90Vol 20.7L shIntraday candle
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal
Market context
Relative performance and chart statistics
Adjusted completed-session prices, rebased to 100
HINDALCONifty MetalNifty 500
- HINDALCO
- -5.0%
- Nifty 500
- -5.6%
- Nifty Metal
- -3.8%
- Vs Nifty 500
- +0.6 pp
Chart stats
19 Oct 2026- From 52W high
- -23.4%
- 52W range position
- 35%
- ATR (14)
- 2.5%
- Volume vs 20D
- 0.48x
- Avg traded value
- ₹364 Cr
- 20D price channel
- ₹857.2 - ₹1,003.8
₹1,176
₹754.5 - ₹1,176
₹22.3
Latest completed session
20-session average
26.8% annualized volatility
Research snapshot
What the evidence says now
Investable fundamentals, management evidence is still limited to a financial-only Trust Lite signal, price trend argues for patience, and recent execution is mixed.
Suggested next step
Research, do not rush
The evidence is not strongly aligned. Compare peers and wait for a cleaner setup.
U-Score
Legacy · UNDERVALUED64
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
Latest result
Excellent100
Revenue +32.1% · PAT +75.2% YoY
Technical
Bearish36
Price trend and sector-relative-strength timing.
Valuation
Legacy model+65.0%
Legacy margin-of-safety estimate; the revised evidence label remains in shadow validation.
Trust
Limited evidence68
Financial-only signal; management claim evidence is not sufficient yet.
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Latest result
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Excellent · 100/100Rev +32% YoY · PAT +75% YoY · margin expansion · +9% QoQ · operating leverage
Filed 30 Jun 2026
Open results browser →| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹84,825 Cr | +32.1% | +8.6% |
| EBITDA | ₹13,932 Cr | +76.2% | +39.1% |
| Operating margin | 16.0% | +400 bps | +300 bps |
| PAT | ₹7,013 Cr | +75.2% | +170.0% |
| PAT margin | 8.3% | +204 bps | +495 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.47
- P/B
- 1.45
- EV/EBITDA
- 5.95
- Market Cap
- 198430.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 13.00%
- ROCE
- 13.20%
- ROA
- 4.76%
- Dividend Y
- 0.55%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 16.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 35.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 7.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 19.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.73
- Interest Coverage
- 11.08×
- Altman Z
- 2.52
- Book Value
- 608.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- —
- FCF Positive Y
- 9/5
- OCF
- 10250.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 72.99
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 34.67%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 30%
Financial History
Updated 20/10/2026
Revenue
₹ CrLatest: 112.6k+20.6% vs prev
Net Profit
₹ CrLatest: 10.1k+57.8% vs prev
Return on Equity
%Latest: 13.1+44.4% vs prev
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Daily technical trend read
Bearish setupTrend is weak — long-term trend down. RSI 36.
- Price below SMA200 (long-term downtrend) — short-term bounces likely countertrend.
- SMA20 falling (~8.8% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 36 — sideways, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- 24% off 52W high · 15% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Nifty 500 leadership
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
63
RS percentile
Stage 1 Base / Transition
1M return
-8.7%
3M return
-5.0%
6M return
-13.4%
1Y return
+6.1%
RS 1D
-1
RS 20D
-10
Sector rank
#11
Industry rank
-
Stage evidence
- Price is 9.8% below the 30-week proxy without full trend alignment.
- The 30-week proxy changed -0.0% over 20 sessions.
- The moving-average structure does not confirm Stage 2 or Stage 4.
50-DMA
price below
200-DMA
price below
Sector
neutral
Industry
unranked
Relative-strength line vs Nifty 500 (base 100)
261 observations
19 Oct 2026Value 123.23+0.20%
RS vs Nifty 500123
Valuation & peers
U-Score 64 · legacy U-Score band UNDERVALUED · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Valuation & peers
U-Score 64 · legacy U-Score band UNDERVALUED · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Deep Value
Fundamental score breakdown
U band · UNDERVALUEDValuation24/30
Growth20/25
Quality4/20
Balance Sheet7/15
Cash Flow4/10
Piotroski
8/9 (+5)
Penalties
0
Raw sum
64
Why this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
64/100 · legacy band UNDERVALUED
Positive drivers
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 65.0%.
- Valuation contributes 24/30 to the score.
Main drags
- Quality is weaker at 4/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Cash flow is weaker at 4/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Balance sheet is weaker at 7/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Primary lens
Mid-cycle PE/EV/EBITDA using multi-year average margins or earnings.
Secondary checks
Current margin versus 5-year average, balance sheet strength, commodity cycle.
Main risk check
A low trailing PE may mean peak-cycle earnings, not true cheapness.
PE
9.5
PB
1.4
EV/EBITDA
6.0
ROE
13.0%
ROCE
13.2%
FCF Yield
—
Debt/Equity
0.7
MoS
+65.0%
Cyclical/value-trap warning
This sector can look cheap when profits are temporarily high. Check mid-cycle margins/earnings before relying on trailing PE. Current PE is low at 9.5, so peak-cycle earnings risk should be checked.
Score movement
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Stored run: 21 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
64
Previous: 64
Legacy U-Score band
UNDERVALUED
Previous: UNDERVALUED
Margin of safety
+65.0%
Previous: +64.5%
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
21 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
Factor attribution
No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.
Modelled fair value
Graham Number
₹999.25
+11.0% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
34.8
Growth-justified Value
₹2,540.05
+65.0% MoS
PEG
0.33
Comparable companies
Peers
Business-comparable peers in Metals — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.
Ticker
Name
Why peer
Score
PE
ROE
MoS
Verdict
HINDZINC
Large
Hindustan Zinc Limited
Metals
match 67
77
10.9
76.6%
+74%
DEEP VALUE
HINDCOPPER
Small
Hindustan Copper Limited
Metals
match 56
63
36.7
32.9%
-8%
UNDERVALUED
IMFA
Micro
Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys Limited
Metals
match 54
69
12.2
16.8%
+67%
UNDERVALUED
GOYALALUM
Small
Goyal Aluminiums Limited
Metals
match 52
36
17.4
12.9%
+49%
WATCHLIST
HISARMETAL
Small
Hisar Metal Industries Limited
Metals
match 51
25
16.5
5.0%
-311%
OVERVALUED
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business and thesis
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Thesis intactReviewed 2026-06-12T07:09:28.280Z
Management commentary snapshot
Hindalco reported strong Q4 FY26 operational performance in India businesses, with consolidated EBITDA up 11% YoY. However, consolidated PAT declined 51% YoY due to exceptional items related to Novelis's Oswego plant fires and tariffs, partially offset by Sierre flood insurance recoveries.
The thesis remains intact, supported by robust performance in India operations and strategic capacity expansions. Novelis's recovery from the Oswego incident and its long-term guidance provide confidence, though increased debt for growth projects warrants monitoring.
Current business mix
Hindalco (India) Business Sales Mix by Geography (Q4 FY26)
Latest issuer-disclosed distribution across 2 reported categories.
Domestic73.0%
Export27.0%
Growth engines
Strong Domestic Demand
Indian aluminium demand up 9% YoY, copper demand up 5% YoY in Q4 FY26, driven by Auto, Electricals, Building & Construction.
Aluminium Downstream Expansion
Extrusion shipments up 28%, FRP up 16% in Q4 FY26; Aditya FRP scaling up, Battery Enclosure fully ramped.
Novelis Strategic Growth
Bay Minette Cold Mill commissioning started in March, on track for H2 CY26; long-term $600+/ton EBITDA guidance intact.
Cost Optimization & Circularity
Novelis delivered $125mn cost savings in FY26, targeting $350-400mn by FY28; aims for 75% recycled content by 2030.
Capacity and execution
Novelis Bay Minette Cold Mill
Commissioning started in March, on track for H2 CY26.
Captive Coal Mines (India)
Chakla (H1 FY27), Bandha (FY27), Meenakshi (FY29) with various stages of approval/box cut done.
Aditya Alumina Refinery
Target FY28, +30% construction completed.
Aditya Aluminium Smelter Ph 1 (181Kt)
Target FY28, +90% PO placed for packages.
Tailwinds
Global Aluminium Deficit
Global deficit likely to widen to ~1.5 mt in CY26 (pre-conflict: 0.3 mt) due to conflict in West Asia, driving up LME.
Strong Indian Market Demand
Strong demand growth led by electrical, packaging, and auto for aluminium, and building & construction for copper.
Favorable Macros & Realizations
Resilient operational performance and favorable macros, along with higher Sulphuric acid realization, supported India business EBITDA.
Headwinds
Geopolitical Risks & Global Slowdown
Heightened geopolitical risks contribute to a modest slowdown in global GDP growth projections for 2026-27.
Global Inflationary Pressures
Global inflation projected to pause disinflation trajectory, rising slightly due to higher energy/food prices and supply-side pressures.
Novelis Operational Disruptions
Novelis Q4 FY26 EBITDA negatively impacted by $53mn from Oswego fires and $27mn tariffs.
Lower TC/RC
Copper segment EBITDA impacted by lower TC/RC despite strong operational performance and higher Sulphuric acid realization.
Risk radar
Commodity Price Volatility
Global and Indian demand-supply conditions, finished goods prices, and feedstock prices are key factors affecting operations.
Regulatory & Economic Changes
Changes in Government regulations, tax regimes, and economic developments in India and operating countries pose risks.
Operational Disruptions
Factors like litigation, labor negotiations, and unforeseen events (e.g., Oswego fire) can impact operations and financial results.
Geopolitical Instability
Heightened geopolitical risks can impact global GDP growth and commodity markets.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Analyst reading lens
Compare BOTH
YoY comparison is essential for assessing annual trends and the impact of commodity cycles. QoQ is crucial for tracking sequential operational momentum, utilization rates, and the progress of project execution in the capital-intensive metals sector.
Sector KPIs management disclosed
Aluminium LME ($/tonne)
Q4 FY26: $3,195. Largest ever supply shock driving up LME.
India Aluminium Demand
Q4 FY26: 1,561 Kt, up 9% YoY, primarily led by Auto & Electricals.
India Copper Refined Market Demand
Q4 FY26: 402 KT, up ~5% YoY, mainly driven by Building & Construction.
Hindalco (India) Aluminium Upstream EBITDA ($/Ton)
Q4 FY26: $1,756, up 4% QoQ; FY26: $1,583, up 9% YoY.
Management forward view
Novelis Long-term Guidance
Long-term $600+/ton EBITDA guidance intact; Oswego hot mill expected to restart in next few weeks.
Novelis Cost Savings
Targeting $350-400 million total cost savings by end of FY28, with $125 million achieved in FY26.
India Business Expansion
India business aims to 'Double Down' and grow 4x by FY30 through various upstream and downstream projects.
Sustainability Commitment
Committed to 'Zero Harm' with safety initiatives and recognized as a global sustainability leader in S&P Global Yearbook 2026.
Thesis monitor
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Novelis Adjusted EBITDA/Ton | $495 (Q4 FY26) | Recovery post-Oswego restart and progress towards $600+/ton guidance. |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 1.83x (Mar-26) | Deleveraging as strategic growth projects ramp up and generate cash flows. |
| India Business Project Commissioning | Various stages of construction/PO placement | Timely commissioning and ramp-up of new capacities (e.g., Chakla, Aditya Alumina/Smelter). |
| Novelis Cost Savings | $125 million in FY26 | Progress towards $350-400 million target by FY28. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trust Score
68Limited evidence · low confidenceTrust Lite
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Limited evidence: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 56th percentile of the scored universe and 46th percentile within Metals. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
This is a financial-behaviour screen, not a claim-tested management reliability verdict.
Computed 21 Oct 2026
management-trust-v1
231 docs text-extracted · 44 concalls text-extracted
Score band
Limited evidence
Financial behaviour is scored, but management claims do not yet have enough outcome checks.
Relative rank
56th percentile
overall median 67 · Metals: 46th pctile, median 70 · Large: 32nd pctile, median 73
Evidence depth
Financial-only
231 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
Claim delivery
Outcome history still building
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Limited evidence · low confidenceWhat it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Acceptable, but check the weakest sub-score before increasing exposure.
Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Promoter
78
strong · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
67
acceptable · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
73
acceptable · leverage and solvency
Discipline
60
acceptable · capital discipline
Results
61
acceptable · quarterly consistency
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸9 years of positive FCF.
- ▸4/4 latest quarters had positive YoY revenue growth.
- ▸OPM spread across recent quarters is 4%.
Trust risks
- ▸2 latest quarters had PAT decline worse than 25% YoY.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Continue researching Hindalco Industries Limited
Important announcements & filings
Latest exchange and company disclosures found within the past two years.
Open source ↗
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 11 Sep - Newspaper Advertisement(s) regarding Notice of Special Window for Re-lodgement of Transfer Requests of Physical Shares
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Analyst / Investor Meet - Intimation 8 Sep - Intimation regarding the investor meeting at the Jefferies 5th India Forum - Investor conference
Source: Bse
Investor presentation
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Press Release / Media Release 27 Aug - Hindalco commissions India’s first Superfine PPT ATH plant in Belagavi; 30,000 tonnes annual capacity, expandable to 60,000.
Source: Bse
Annual report
Annual Report 2026
Source: Bse
Annual report
Annual Report 2025
Source: Bse
All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.