Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDCLTD)
Small CapMetals stocks · Small cap · NSE
Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDC) is a Government of Gujarat enterprise engaged in mining lignite, bauxite, and developing coal, copper, and rare earth elements. The company aims for significant growth through new projects and capacity expansion across its mineral portfolio.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Weak fundamentals, management trust is acceptable, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is weak.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Bad · 2/100PAT -1% YoY · margin compression · Rev +24% YoY · +11% QoQ
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹907 Cr | +23.7% | +11.4% |
| EBITDA | ₹191 Cr | +13.0% | +83.7% |
| Operating margin | 21.0% | -200 bps | +800 bps |
| PAT | ₹163 Cr | -0.6% | -16.0% |
| PAT margin | 18.0% | -440 bps | -586 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
GMDC reports steady growth in Q4 & FY'25, but faces project delays in lignite and power, while maintaining ambitious long-term targets for coal and critical minerals.
GMDC's ambitious 'Project Shikhar' for 2030 faces short-term execution challenges with lignite volume shortfalls and power plant delays due to external factors. While management remains confident in achieving long-term targets, the consistent slippage in timelines for key projects warrants close monitoring of ground-breaking and ramp-up schedules.
New Lignite Mines
positiveSix new lignite mines with 12 MTPA capacity are under development, with Lakhpat, Walia, and Damlai expected to deliver major volumes from FY'27 onwards.
Baitarani West Coal Mine
positiveExpected to be GMDC's largest mine (15 MTPA), with groundbreaking and potential initial volumes in FY'26, ramping up quickly to 1-3-5 million tons.
Copper Project Ambaji
positiveRenamed from multi-metal project, this underground mine is a 'true value driver' with significant activity expected in the coming two years, contributing from FY'28.
Rare Earth Elements Business
positiveSteady work is continuing after receiving an LOI, with commercialization expected in a few years, focusing on permanent magnets.
New Lignite Mines
neutralSix new lignite mines with 12 MTPA capacity are undergoing statutory clearances; volumes from larger ones (Lakhpat, Walia, Damlai) expected from FY'27.
Baitarani West Coal Mine
positivePeak capacity of 15 MTPA, with potential to go up to 22.5 MTPA. Initial production target of ~1 MT in first year of operation, ramping to 3 MT and 5 MT quickly.
ATPS Power Plant Overhaul
neutralPlant overhaul is underway due to critical delays in spares. New PPA allows pass-through of CAPEX and aims for profitability.
Lignite Demand
positiveMarket surveys and analysis indicate continued demand for lignite as a relevant fuel, competing with domestic and imported coal.
Favorable Stripping Ratio for Coal
positiveOdisha coal mines have a near 1.5 units stripping ratio, allowing faster production ramp-up after groundbreaking compared to Gujarat lignite.
New Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)
positiveNew PPA for ATPS plant incentivizes maintenance and upgrades, allowing CAPEX pass-through and aiming for fixed returns.
Lignite Production Shortfall
negativeFY'25 lignite production fell short of 10 MT target, ending at 8 MT, due to Rajpardi mine safety incident and Bhavnagar land acquisition delays.
Power Plant Delays
negativeATPS power plant is running behind schedule due to critical delays in certain spares from abroad and additional surprises requiring more spares.
Long Gestation for New Projects
negativeNew lignite mines and the underground copper project have long gestation periods due to statutory clearances, land acquisition, and complex development.
Project Execution Delays
negativeProjects spread over hundreds of hectares with human settlements involved can experience 'a few quarters here or there' shifts due to land and R&R issues.
Underground Mining Complexity
negativeCopper Project Ambaji is GMDC's first underground mine in Western India, requiring significant CAPEX, technical work, and 2-3 years for results.
CAPEX Concentration
neutralThe Rs. 13,000 crore CAPEX till 2030 may get concentrated in 2 years, potentially requiring slightly more debt than planned if land/R&R issues resolve quickly.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
The earnings call primarily discusses annual performance, multi-year project timelines, and long-term growth plans (FY'26, FY'27, 2030, 2035). Annual comparisons are more relevant for assessing progress against these strategic objectives and project execution milestones.
Lignite Production (FY'25)
negativeCompany fell short of 10 million ton target, ending at 8 million tons due to Rajpardi mine closure and Bhavnagar land acquisition delays.
Lignite Volume Growth (FY'26)
positiveManagement targets 10% to 15% growth in existing lignite business from four operational mines.
Lignite Pricing/Margins
neutralAnalyst calculated Q4 pricing around Rs. 3,400 per ton with EBITDA of Rs. 800-890 per ton. Company sells lignite at 10-15% discount to Indonesian coal.
Baitarani West Coal Mine Capacity
positiveLargest mine for GMDC with a capacity of 15 million tons per annum, potentially expandable to 22.5 million tons.
Ambitious Growth Aspiration
positiveAspiration is to grow to 7%-8%-10% of Coal India's size, aiming for lignite production of 15 MT by 2035 and coal production of 15 MTPA by 2030.
Project Shikhar 2030 Target
neutralManagement 'holds on to our numbers' for the Rs. 14,500 crore revenue target by 2030, despite acknowledging 'a few quarters here or there' shifts.
Beyond Gujarat Sales for Lignite
positiveCompany plans to initiate efforts towards beyond Gujarat sales for lignite in the current year, preparing for ramp-up capacity from new mines.
Debt Financing Comfort
positiveCompany is comfortable with CAPEX financing, having Rs. 2,000 crore reserves and a line of credit from state lending authorities. No debt expected until FY'27 end.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Lignite Volume Growth | 8 MT in FY'25 (below 10 MT target) | Achievement of 10-15% growth from existing mines in FY'26 and initial contributions from new mines (Lakhpat, Walia, Damlai) from FY'27. |
| Baitarani West Coal Mine Groundbreaking/Production | Payments for land underway, groundbreaking expected this year. | Confirmation of groundbreaking in FY'26 and initial volume contribution (target ~1 MT) in the same year. |
| ATPS Power Plant Commissioning | Running behind schedule due to critical spares delays. | Successful overhaul completion and plant commissioning, leading to improved profitability and reduced losses. |
| CAPEX Spend Rate | FY'25 CAPEX was Rs. 644 crore (below Rs. 3,000 crore plan). | Acceleration of CAPEX towards the planned Rs. 1,500-2,000 crore annual range, especially for land and R&R, and potential debt intake by FY'27 end. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
45Neutralfull bear SMA stack · MACD − · sector +2.7pp vs Nifty (3M)
Technical chart
GMDCLTDdaily · 1Y · AUTO+3.3%Daily technical trend read
NeutralTrend is undirectional — long-term trend down. RSI 45.
- Price < SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200 — full bearish stack.
- SMA20 roughly flat — short-term momentum stalled.
- RSI(14) at 45 — sideways, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- 27% off 52W high · 21% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
- Price is within 6.9% of the 30-week proxy.
- The 30-week proxy changed +0.2% over 20 sessions.
- The moving-average structure does not confirm Stage 2 or Stage 4.
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 35 · WATCHLIST · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 35 · WATCHLIST · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Fundamental score breakdown
WATCHLISTWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Balance sheet contributes 12/15 to the score.
- Growth contributes 10/25 to the score.
Main drags
- Quality is weaker at 1/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Valuation is weaker at 3/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Growth is weaker at 10/25; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
Factor attribution
Modelled fair value
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Healthy Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 75th percentile of the scored universe and 75th percentile within Metals. Main check: results consistency is weak at 41/100.
Healthy Trust Lite: Promoter holding is 74%. Key concern: 1/4 latest quarters had positive YoY PAT growth.
Generally investable credibility. Look for weak sub-scores before increasing position size.
overall median 67 · Metals: 75th pctile, median 70 · Small: 77th pctile, median 66
27 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Healthy Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter holding is 74%.
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is positive at 0.7%.
- ▸11 years of positive FCF.
Trust risks
- ▸1/4 latest quarters had positive YoY PAT growth.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 31.40
- P/B
- 2.54
- EV/EBITDA
- 30.83
- Market Cap
- 17902.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 8.34%
- ROCE
- 10.80%
- ROA
- 10.64%
- Dividend Y
- 1.79%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 15.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 8.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- -9.00%
- EPS 3Y
- -22.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.04
- Interest Coverage
- 35.77×
- Altman Z
- 7.49
- Book Value
- 222.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 0.73%
- FCF Positive Y
- 11/5
- OCF
- 744.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 30.07
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 74.00%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 32%
Financial History
Updated 5/9/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
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Peers
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Peers
Business-comparable peers in Metals — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.