Credit rating
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Credit Rating 18 Sep - CARE reaffirmed GMDC’s ratings: AA+ Stable/A1+ on ₹3,975 crore facilities and A1+ on ₹25 crore.
Source: Bse
Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDCLTD)
Small CapMetals stocks · Small cap · NSE
Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited (GMDC) is a Government of Gujarat enterprise engaged in mining lignite, bauxite, and developing coal, copper, and rare earth elements. The company aims for significant growth through new projects and capacity expansion across its mineral portfolio.
Data qualityFresh enough for analysisQuote updated 19 Oct, 03:31 pm ISTDetails
Quote19 Oct, 03:31 pm IST
Base fundamentals16 Oct 2026 · screener
Latest result31 Jul, 09:46 pm IST
Score20 Oct, 04:30 am IST · v4.3-runtime-valuation
Tags04 Oct 2026
Coverage14/14 · 100%
Valuation2026-07-20 · Rf 6.8% · Metals P/E 23.2 (n=92)
Technical timing lens
Trend score and candlestick chart
33Bearishfull bear SMA stack · SMA20 -11.5% / mo · RSI oversold · MACD − · near 52W low
Stock trend: 22
Sector RS: 50
Sector 3M: -4.5% vs Nifty 500 -5.6%
Metals FPI tailwindNot confirmed
Latest mapped FPI equity flow was not positive. View sector evidence
Technical chart
GMDCLTDD candles · FIT view-31.5%Latest close ₹458.75 on 2026-10-19
Bar
-2.7%
RSI
28
MACD hist
-1.18
52W pos
1%
2026-10-19O ₹471.45H ₹472.80L ₹456.00C ₹458.75Vol 4.6L sh
Up bar
Down bar
EMA 20
EMA 50
Volume + 20D avg
Result date
RSI(14)
MACD / signal
Market context
Relative performance and chart statistics
Adjusted completed-session prices, rebased to 100
GMDCLTDNifty MetalNifty 500
- GMDCLTD
- -20.5%
- Nifty 500
- -5.6%
- Nifty Metal
- -3.8%
- Vs Nifty 500
- -15.0 pp
Chart stats
19 Oct 2026- From 52W high
- -40.6%
- 52W range position
- 1%
- ATR (14)
- 3.3%
- Volume vs 20D
- 0.61x
- Avg traded value
- ₹36.6 Cr
- 20D price channel
- ₹456 - ₹566
₹771.9
₹456 - ₹771.9
₹15.2
Latest completed session
20-session average
27.8% annualized volatility
Research snapshot
What the evidence says now
Weak fundamentals, management evidence is still limited to a financial-only Trust Lite signal, price trend argues for patience, and recent execution is weak.
Suggested next step
Check latest quarters
Result consistency is weak; verify whether the thesis is improving or deteriorating.
U-Score
Legacy · WATCHLIST35
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
Latest result
Bad2
Revenue +23.7% · PAT -0.6% YoY
Technical
Bearish33
Price trend and sector-relative-strength timing.
Valuation
Legacy model-217.3%
Legacy margin-of-safety estimate; the revised evidence label remains in shadow validation.
Trust
Limited evidence72
Financial-only signal; management claim evidence is not sufficient yet.
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Financials
Fundamentals, quarterly history, margins, returns and balance-sheet evidence
Latest result
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Bad · 2/100PAT -1% YoY · margin compression · Rev +24% YoY · +11% QoQ
Filed 31 Jul 2026
Open results browser →| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹907 Cr | +23.7% | +11.4% |
| EBITDA | ₹191 Cr | +13.0% | +83.7% |
| Operating margin | 21.0% | -200 bps | +800 bps |
| PAT | ₹163 Cr | -0.6% | -16.0% |
| PAT margin | 18.0% | -440 bps | -586 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.30
- P/B
- 2.12
- EV/EBITDA
- 25.88
- Market Cap
- 14978.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 4.22%
- ROCE
- 10.80%
- ROA
- 10.64%
- Dividend Y
- 1.99%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 14.00%
- EPS 5Y
- -6.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- -10.00%
- EPS 3Y
- -38.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.04
- Interest Coverage
- 35.77×
- Altman Z
- 6.56
- Book Value
- 222.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 0.87%
- FCF Positive Y
- 11/5
- OCF
- 744.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 30.07
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 74.00%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 4%
Financial History
Updated 19/10/2026
Revenue
₹ CrLatest: 2,827+12.0% vs prev
Net Profit
₹ CrLatest: 957+40.7% vs prev
Return on Equity
%Latest: 13.5+28.1% vs prev
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Technicals
Trend interpretation, Stage 2, relative strength, volume and indicator evidence
Daily technical trend read
Mixed signalsSignals are conflicting — long-term trend down. RSI 28. Wait for confirmation.
- Price < SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200 — full bearish stack.
- SMA20 falling (~13.0% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 28 — oversold zone; bounce conditions.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- Within 5% of 52-week low — testing support.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Nifty 500 leadership
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
12
RS percentile
Stage 4 Downtrend
1M return
-17.6%
3M return
-20.5%
6M return
-33.6%
1Y return
-20.7%
RS 1D
-2
RS 20D
-18
Sector rank
#11
Industry rank
-
Stage evidence
- Price is 23.1% below the 30-week proxy.
- The 50-DMA is below the 30-week proxy and its slope is falling -1.1%.
- Both 3-month and 6-month returns are negative.
50-DMA
price below
200-DMA
price below
Sector
neutral
Industry
unranked
Relative-strength line vs Nifty 500 (base 100)
262 observations
19 Oct 2026Value 80.26-1.61%
RS vs Nifty 50080
Valuation & peers
U-Score 35 · legacy U-Score band WATCHLIST · valuation evidence and comparable companies
Valuation & peers
U-Score 35 · legacy U-Score band WATCHLIST · valuation evidence and comparable companies
WATCHLIST
Fundamental score breakdown
U band · WATCHLISTValuation7/30
Growth6/25
Quality0/20
Balance Sheet12/15
Cash Flow4/10
Piotroski
7/9 (+5)
Penalties
1
Raw sum
35
Why this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
35/100 · legacy band WATCHLIST
Positive drivers
- Piotroski is strong at 7/9.
- Balance sheet contributes 12/15 to the score.
- Cash flow contributes 4/10 to the score.
Main drags
- Fair-value margin of safety is negative at -217.3%.
- Quality is weaker at 0/20; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Valuation is weaker at 7/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Sector valuation model
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Primary lens
Mid-cycle PE/EV/EBITDA using multi-year average margins or earnings.
Secondary checks
Current margin versus 5-year average, balance sheet strength, commodity cycle.
Main risk check
A low trailing PE may mean peak-cycle earnings, not true cheapness.
PE
26.3
PB
2.1
EV/EBITDA
25.9
ROE
4.2%
ROCE
10.8%
FCF Yield
0.9%
Debt/Equity
0.0
MoS
-217.3%
Cyclical/value-trap warning
This sector can look cheap when profits are temporarily high. Check mid-cycle margins/earnings before relying on trailing PE.
Score movement
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Stored run: 20 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
Final score
35
Previous: 35
Legacy U-Score band
WATCHLIST
Previous: WATCHLIST
Margin of safety
-217.3%
Previous: -217.3%
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
20 Oct 2026
v4.3-runtime-valuation
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
Factor attribution
No pillar movement versus the latest stored run. Historical score trend will appear after snapshot storage is enabled.
Modelled fair value
Graham Number
₹387.56
-18.4% MoS
Growth-justified P/E
4.8
Growth-justified Value
₹144.64
-217.3% MoS
PEG
—
Comparable companies
Peers
Business-comparable peers in Metals — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.
Ticker
Name
Why peer
Score
PE
ROE
MoS
Verdict
ORISSAMINE
Small
The Orissa Minerals Development Company Limited
Mining
match 93
28
640.0
—
-1650%
OVERVALUED
RATNAMANI
Small
Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Limited
Mining
match 92
37
41.0
12.6%
+3%
WATCHLIST
SUNFLAG
Small
Sunflag Iron And Steel Company Limited
Mining
match 89
36
38.6
2.4%
-84%
WATCHLIST
KENNAMET
Small
Kennametal India Limited
Mining
match 88
56
47.0
24.5%
-33%
FAIR VALUE
KIRLFER
Small
Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Limited
Mining
match 87
55
20.0
14.5%
+49%
FAIR VALUE
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business, management & trust
Growth engines, risks, management commitments and evidence-backed delivery
Business and thesis
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Thesis under stressReviewed 2026-06-16T07:13:59.917Z
Management commentary snapshot
GMDC reports steady growth in Q4 & FY'25, but faces project delays in lignite and power, while maintaining ambitious long-term targets for coal and critical minerals.
GMDC's ambitious 'Project Shikhar' for 2030 faces short-term execution challenges with lignite volume shortfalls and power plant delays due to external factors. While management remains confident in achieving long-term targets, the consistent slippage in timelines for key projects warrants close monitoring of ground-breaking and ramp-up schedules.
Growth engines
New Lignite Mines
positiveSix new lignite mines with 12 MTPA capacity are under development, with Lakhpat, Walia, and Damlai expected to deliver major volumes from FY'27 onwards.
Baitarani West Coal Mine
positiveExpected to be GMDC's largest mine (15 MTPA), with groundbreaking and potential initial volumes in FY'26, ramping up quickly to 1-3-5 million tons.
Copper Project Ambaji
positiveRenamed from multi-metal project, this underground mine is a 'true value driver' with significant activity expected in the coming two years, contributing from FY'28.
Rare Earth Elements Business
positiveSteady work is continuing after receiving an LOI, with commercialization expected in a few years, focusing on permanent magnets.
Capacity and execution
New Lignite Mines
neutralSix new lignite mines with 12 MTPA capacity are undergoing statutory clearances; volumes from larger ones (Lakhpat, Walia, Damlai) expected from FY'27.
Baitarani West Coal Mine
positivePeak capacity of 15 MTPA, with potential to go up to 22.5 MTPA. Initial production target of ~1 MT in first year of operation, ramping to 3 MT and 5 MT quickly.
ATPS Power Plant Overhaul
neutralPlant overhaul is underway due to critical delays in spares. New PPA allows pass-through of CAPEX and aims for profitability.
Tailwinds
Lignite Demand
positiveMarket surveys and analysis indicate continued demand for lignite as a relevant fuel, competing with domestic and imported coal.
Favorable Stripping Ratio for Coal
positiveOdisha coal mines have a near 1.5 units stripping ratio, allowing faster production ramp-up after groundbreaking compared to Gujarat lignite.
New Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)
positiveNew PPA for ATPS plant incentivizes maintenance and upgrades, allowing CAPEX pass-through and aiming for fixed returns.
Headwinds
Lignite Production Shortfall
negativeFY'25 lignite production fell short of 10 MT target, ending at 8 MT, due to Rajpardi mine safety incident and Bhavnagar land acquisition delays.
Power Plant Delays
negativeATPS power plant is running behind schedule due to critical delays in certain spares from abroad and additional surprises requiring more spares.
Long Gestation for New Projects
negativeNew lignite mines and the underground copper project have long gestation periods due to statutory clearances, land acquisition, and complex development.
Risk radar
Project Execution Delays
negativeProjects spread over hundreds of hectares with human settlements involved can experience 'a few quarters here or there' shifts due to land and R&R issues.
Underground Mining Complexity
negativeCopper Project Ambaji is GMDC's first underground mine in Western India, requiring significant CAPEX, technical work, and 2-3 years for results.
CAPEX Concentration
neutralThe Rs. 13,000 crore CAPEX till 2030 may get concentrated in 2 years, potentially requiring slightly more debt than planned if land/R&R issues resolve quickly.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Analyst reading lens
Compare YOY
The earnings call primarily discusses annual performance, multi-year project timelines, and long-term growth plans (FY'26, FY'27, 2030, 2035). Annual comparisons are more relevant for assessing progress against these strategic objectives and project execution milestones.
Sector KPIs management disclosed
Lignite Production (FY'25)
negativeCompany fell short of 10 million ton target, ending at 8 million tons due to Rajpardi mine closure and Bhavnagar land acquisition delays.
Lignite Volume Growth (FY'26)
positiveManagement targets 10% to 15% growth in existing lignite business from four operational mines.
Lignite Pricing/Margins
neutralAnalyst calculated Q4 pricing around Rs. 3,400 per ton with EBITDA of Rs. 800-890 per ton. Company sells lignite at 10-15% discount to Indonesian coal.
Baitarani West Coal Mine Capacity
positiveLargest mine for GMDC with a capacity of 15 million tons per annum, potentially expandable to 22.5 million tons.
Management forward view
Ambitious Growth Aspiration
positiveAspiration is to grow to 7%-8%-10% of Coal India's size, aiming for lignite production of 15 MT by 2035 and coal production of 15 MTPA by 2030.
Project Shikhar 2030 Target
neutralManagement 'holds on to our numbers' for the Rs. 14,500 crore revenue target by 2030, despite acknowledging 'a few quarters here or there' shifts.
Beyond Gujarat Sales for Lignite
positiveCompany plans to initiate efforts towards beyond Gujarat sales for lignite in the current year, preparing for ramp-up capacity from new mines.
Debt Financing Comfort
positiveCompany is comfortable with CAPEX financing, having Rs. 2,000 crore reserves and a line of credit from state lending authorities. No debt expected until FY'27 end.
Thesis monitor
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Lignite Volume Growth | 8 MT in FY'25 (below 10 MT target) | Achievement of 10-15% growth from existing mines in FY'26 and initial contributions from new mines (Lakhpat, Walia, Damlai) from FY'27. |
| Baitarani West Coal Mine Groundbreaking/Production | Payments for land underway, groundbreaking expected this year. | Confirmation of groundbreaking in FY'26 and initial volume contribution (target ~1 MT) in the same year. |
| ATPS Power Plant Commissioning | Running behind schedule due to critical spares delays. | Successful overhaul completion and plant commissioning, leading to improved profitability and reduced losses. |
| CAPEX Spend Rate | FY'25 CAPEX was Rs. 644 crore (below Rs. 3,000 crore plan). | Acceleration of CAPEX towards the planned Rs. 1,500-2,000 crore annual range, especially for land and R&R, and potential debt intake by FY'27 end. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trust Score
72Limited evidence · low confidenceTrust Lite
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Limited evidence: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 69th percentile of the scored universe and 59th percentile within Metals. Main check: results consistency is weak at 41/100.
This is a financial-behaviour screen, not a claim-tested management reliability verdict.
Computed 20 Oct 2026
management-trust-v1
28 docs text-extracted · 20 concalls text-extracted
Score band
Limited evidence
Financial behaviour is scored, but management claims do not yet have enough outcome checks.
Relative rank
69th percentile
overall median 67 · Metals: 59th pctile, median 70 · Small: 71st pctile, median 66
Evidence depth
Financial-only
28 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
Claim delivery
Outcome history still building
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Limited evidence · low confidenceWhat it measures
Reliability of management and financial delivery, using financial behaviour only.
Confidence
Treat this as an early read until more concalls and outcomes are matched.
Investor use
Acceptable, but check the weakest sub-score before increasing exposure.
Read Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Promoter
86
strong · holding, pledge, alignment
Cash flow
77
strong · profit to cash conversion
Balance sheet
96
strong · leverage and solvency
Discipline
52
watch · capital discipline
Results
41
weak · quarterly consistency
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter holding is 74%.
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is positive at 0.9%.
- ▸11 years of positive FCF.
Trust risks
- ▸ROE is low at 4.2%.
- ▸1/4 latest quarters had positive YoY PAT growth.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Continue researching Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Limited
Important announcements & filings
Latest exchange and company disclosures found within the past two years.
Open source ↗
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 7 Sep
Source: Bse
Announcement
Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 1 Aug
Source: Bse
Annual report
Annual Report 2026
Source: Bse
Annual report
Annual Report 2025
Source: Bse
Annual report
Business Responsibility and Sustainability Reporting (BRSR) 5 Sep - GMDC submitted FY 2025-26 BRSR, including reasonable assurance and annual report disclosure.
Source: Bse
All information is for study purposes only. For investment decisions, consult your financial advisor. See Playbook for methodology.