Cummins India Limited (CUMMINSIND)
Large CapIndustrials stocks · Large cap · NSE
Cummins India Limited manufactures and sells diesel and natural gas engines, power generation systems, and related components and services. It caters to domestic and export markets across power generation, industrial, and distribution segments, with a significant focus on data centers and infrastructure projects.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Investable fundamentals, management trust is acceptable, price trend is neutral, and recent execution is consistent.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
medium confidence · 4/4 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Average · 42/100margin compression · Rev +18% YoY · PAT +1% YoY · +14% QoQ
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹3,426 Cr | +17.9% | +13.8% |
| EBITDA | ₹616 Cr | -1.3% | -4.0% |
| Operating margin | 18.0% | -300 bps | -300 bps |
| PAT | ₹609 Cr | +0.8% | -6.2% |
| PAT margin | 17.8% | -300 bps | -377 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
Cummins India reported strong FY26 sales growth of 18% YoY to INR11,950 crores, with PBT up 24% YoY. Q4 FY26 sales rose 23% YoY to INR2,963 crores, but were marginally down 1% QoQ. Domestic sales drove growth, while exports showed mixed trends.
Despite robust domestic demand and strong order books in key segments like data centers and railways, management's cautious outlook for FY27 due to geopolitical risks, commodity inflation, and supply constraints warrants close monitoring. Localization efforts for high-horsepower engines are key.
Data Centers
Inquiry pipeline for data centers picked up significantly since October last year, both Hyperscalers and Colo players.
Railways
Railway has performed very well this quarter, and we continue to see robust demand on the railway side with a good order book.
Mining
Mining has picked up in the last 6 months with new tenders coming in, and our order book has started building up.
CPCB IV+ After-treatment Services
As CPCB IV+ products come out of warranty, the distribution business anticipates catering to these customers with service packages and extended warranty schemes.
Parent Company Capacity Investment
Cummins parent investing close to $450 million to raise 20 gigs of capacity by 2030, likely to crunch import timelines for data center engines.
CIL Capex for Modernization
Cummins India Limited has invested more than INR1,000 crores in the last 5 years for continuously modernizing plants and expanding line capability, increasing output per line.
Robust Domestic Demand
We are seeing robust demand from the domestic market across power generation, industrial, and distribution segments.
Government Initiatives
India's economic outlook remains steady, supported by government initiatives, focus on manufacturing, and capital investment.
Non-Data Center PowerGen Demand
Non-data center growth in power generation has been very good, higher double digits, driven by manufacturing (solar cell, pharma), quick commerce, and luxury residential/commercial realty.
Geopolitical Developments
Ongoing geopolitical developments create uncertainty and potential impact on the broader economy and export demand.
Commodity Price Increases & Inflation
Commodity prices are increasing, and inflation is likely to hit, posing challenges to margins and demand.
Supply Constraints
The industry faces supply constraints including labor shortage issues at suppliers, commodity pricing impact on suppliers, fuel cost increments, and war-related movement delays.
Margin Dilution from Imported Products
Higher growth from segments like data centers and CPCB IV+ could be margin dilutive if they rely on imported products (e.g., QSK95) with lower localization content.
Competitive Landscape for Large Engines
Competitive landscape for larger imported engines (78-liter, 95-liter) may narrow Cummins' cost benefit compared to peers who also import.
Commodity Price Volatility
Managing commodity inflation is challenging; passing on increases to customers usually involves a lag, impacting near-term margins.
Supply Chain for Imported Nodes
High global demand for imported nodes for data centers causes supply issues, though not due to electronics shortages like in COVID times.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
Q4 results are presented with both YoY and QoQ comparisons, which is useful for assessing both annual growth trends and sequential momentum. Full-year results are primarily YoY. Given the segment-specific QoQ data, both comparisons are relevant.
FY26 Sales (YoY)
Sales at INR11,950 crores are higher by 18% compared to INR10,166 crores recorded in the last year.
FY26 Domestic Sales (YoY)
Domestic sales at INR9,961 crores are higher by 19%.
FY26 Exports (YoY)
Exports at INR1,989 crores are higher by 12%.
FY26 PBT before exceptional items (YoY)
Profit before tax before exceptional items at INR3,104 crores is higher by 24% compared to the last year.
Moderate Growth Outlook for FY27
The company expects moderate growth across segments in the financial year 2026/'27, remaining cautious despite robust domestic demand.
Localization Evaluation
Management continuously evaluates what more can be done in India for higher-sized engines (e.g., 78-liter) as volumes start coming in.
End-to-End Value Proposition
Management focuses on providing a whole value proposition to data center customers, from pre-order engagement to installation, commissioning, and aftermarket services.
Positive BESS Outlook
Management has a positive outlook on the Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) business scaling up in India, seeing it as part of overall backup power solutions.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Growth Trajectory | Moderate growth expected for FY27. | Any deviation from moderate growth, especially in domestic segments, given robust demand and economic caution. |
| Data Center Contribution to PowerGen Domestic Revenue | Approximately 35% in Q4 FY26. | Sustained growth and increasing share, particularly from Hyperscalers, and localization efforts for larger engines. |
| Export Demand Trends | Slightly lower by 6% YoY in Q4 FY26. | Impact of geopolitical developments on Europe and Asia Pac markets, and any recovery in Middle East and other markets. |
| Industrial Segment Performance | Q4 FY26 sales up 1% YoY; Railways and Mining order books building up, Compressor entering low cycle. | Execution of railway and mining orders, and any signs of revival in construction or compressor segments. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Show extracted source claims
Cummins India anticipates double-digit revenue growth for the full year 2025-26.
"we anticipate having double-digit growth in the full year 2025-'26"
Outcome check: PAT YoY averaged -12.9% across 1 later quarter(s).
CPCB IV+ products, being more technologically advanced, will require better aftermarket support, potentially leading to better opportunities for the distribution business.
"they will require better aftermarket support... it could lead to better opportunities."
Outcome check: Revenue YoY averaged -1.3% across 1 later quarter(s).
The broad-based Powergen growth observed in Q1 FY26 is expected to be sustainable.
"This looks sustainable, yes."
Outcome check: Revenue YoY averaged -1.3% across 1 later quarter(s).
Serialized production of the hotel load converter for the railway segment will start very soon and begin contributing to revenue in the coming quarters.
"The product will be productionized from a serial production perspective very, very soon. ... it will start contributing in the coming quarters."
Outcome check: Revenue YoY averaged -1.3% across 1 later quarter(s).
Trend score and candlestick chart
45NeutralSMA20 -5.1% / mo · MACD −
Technical chart
CUMMINSINDdaily · 1Y · AUTO+5.1%Daily technical trend read
Bearish setupTrend is weak — long-term uptrend intact. RSI 31.
- Price above SMA200 (long-term uptrend) but mid-term MAs not aligned.
- SMA20 falling (~5.4% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 31 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- 17% off 52W high · 31% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
- Price is within 3.3% of the 30-week proxy.
- The 30-week proxy changed +3.1% over 20 sessions.
- The moving-average structure does not confirm Stage 2 or Stage 4.
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 61 · UNDERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 61 · UNDERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Fundamental score breakdown
UNDERVALUEDWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Quality contributes 20/20 to the score.
- Balance sheet contributes 11/15 to the score.
Main drags
- Fair-value margin of safety is negative at -48.9%.
- Valuation is weaker at 0/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Cash flow is weaker at 7/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Blended valuation: PE, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, and balance-sheet checks
For this sector, IndiaPulse uses a blended lens rather than relying on a single valuation ratio.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +1 points.
Factor attribution
Modelled fair value
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Mixed Trust: Management has 25% delivered/partly-delivered outcomes on 4 checked claims, with 3 adverse claim outcomes. It ranks around the 32nd percentile of the scored universe and 28th percentile within Industrials. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
Healthy Trust: 4/4 extracted management claims have outcome checks; 25% were fully delivered and 0 were partially delivered. 3 claim(s) were contradicted or failed. Key concern: 3/4 matched management claims were contradicted or failed.
Usable, but needs evidence. Treat guidance with a margin of safety.
overall median 67 · Industrials: 28th pctile, median 68 · Large: 17th pctile, median 73
4/4 claims checked. Use as directional, not final.
4/4 claims checked · 3 contradicted/failed claims
How to read this Trust Score
Mixed Trust · medium confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is positive at 1.3%.
- ▸12 years of positive FCF.
- ▸Debt/equity is 0.00.
Trust risks
- ▸3/4 matched management claims were contradicted or failed.
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 57.20
- P/B
- 16.45
- EV/EBITDA
- 50.02
- Market Cap
- 139570.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 30.20%
- ROCE
- 39.50%
- ROA
- 20.94%
- Dividend Y
- 1.31%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 23.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 31.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 16.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 26.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.00
- Interest Coverage
- 184.86×
- Altman Z
- 9.19
- Book Value
- 306.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 1.26%
- FCF Positive Y
- 12/5
- OCF
- 1734.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 85.39
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 51.00%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 53%
Financial History
Updated 5/9/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
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Peers
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Peers
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