AVP Infracon Ltd. (AVPINFRA)
SME CapInfra stocks · SME cap · NSE
AVP Infracon Ltd. is an Indian infrastructure company primarily engaged in road construction in Tamil Nadu. It is expanding into solar EPC and pre-engineered buildings, aiming for significant top-line growth while navigating funding challenges and raw material volatility.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Investable fundamentals, management trust is acceptable, price trend argues for patience, and recent execution is mixed.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 31 Mar 2026
Good · 72/100Rev +162% YoY · PAT +73% YoY · +26% QoQ · margin compression
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹246 Cr | +161.7% | +25.5% |
| EBITDA | ₹42 Cr | +13.5% | -4.5% |
| Operating margin | 17.0% | -300 bps | -600 bps |
| PAT | ₹19 Cr | +72.7% | -17.4% |
| PAT margin | 7.7% | -315 bps | -401 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
AVP Infracon reports H2 FY26 margin compression due to bitumen price hikes and increased finance costs; misses FY26 revenue guidance despite practical execution, citing unbilled revenue and election delays.
Management acknowledges significant margin compression, increased finance costs, and negative operating cash flow for three consecutive years. While management expresses confidence in achieving FY27 revenue targets and improving profitability, the reliance on debt for growth and challenges in equity fundraising pose material risks to the investment thesis.
Geographic Expansion
Bidding for orders outside Tamil Nadu; if successful, will start work outside the state.
Solar EPC Subsidiary
Obtained first order and started work; looking for good orders this year.
Pre-Engineered Buildings (PEB)
Executing one first order; targeting smaller tickets to build prequalification for bigger projects.
Targeting Larger Orders
Targeting orders of INR100 crores and more, with technical capability up to INR300 crores.
Capex in FY26
Undertook approximately INR25 crores worth of capex in FY26.
FY27 Capex Plans
No immediate plans for capex in FY27; will shuffle existing assets or hire machinery as needed.
Government Support for Escalation
Government circulars provide relief on price escalation factors, instructing regional offices to calculate escalations on a running account basis.
NHAI Schemes
NHAI has introduced schemes for billings and instructed regional offices to calculate escalations on a running account basis.
Credit Rating Upgrade
Company's credit rating improved by one notch from BBB to BBB+, which may help with bank limits.
Bitumen Price Volatility
Geopolitical war caused bitumen prices to increase by 50-60%, impacting margins.
Bitumen Scarcity
Bitumen availability was very scarce in the last month, affecting project milestones and billing.
Competitive Bidding
Bidding, especially for NHAI projects, is very competitive, requiring conservative pricing.
Delayed Receivables
Receivables got delayed due to elections, affecting cash flow.
Negative Cash Flow from Operations
Cash flow from operations has been negative for the last three financial years (FY24, FY25, FY26).
High Debt Levels & Finance Costs
Total consolidated debt is INR234 crores; finance costs increased due to reliance on debt for working capital and growth.
Working Capital Management
High unbilled revenue (INR70 crores) and delayed receivables (INR160 crores outstanding) strain working capital; low creditor days (INR20 crores trade payables) exacerbate the issue.
Equity Fundraising Uncertainty
Plans for equity raise are contingent on improved share market conditions; alternative debt options are being explored.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
The earnings call discusses full-year FY26 and H2 FY26 results, comparing performance to the 'last financial year' and 'previous years,' making annual year-over-year comparison most relevant for assessing overall financial health and growth trajectory.
PAT Margin
PAT margin compressed by 1-2% in FY26; management aims to maintain 9-10% and regain 11-11.5%.
EBITDA Margin
EBITDA margin compressed by 1-2% in FY26.
Order Book (Unexecuted)
Current unexecuted order book is roughly INR500 crores.
Revenue Cover (FY27 Target)
FY27 revenue guidance is INR700 crores against an unexecuted order book of INR500 crores.
FY27 Revenue Target
Management is sticking to its guidance of INR700 crores revenue for FY27.
PAT Margin Outlook
Will try to maintain a minimum 10% PAT margin, aiming to regain 11-11.5% in the future.
Equity Raise & Warrant Subscription
Plans an equity raise post H1 FY27 results; MD will subscribe to the balance INR22.5 crores warrants in H1 FY27.
Debt Management
Aims to reduce debt and keep the debt-to-equity ratio below 1.5; current ratio is 1.23.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| FY27 Revenue Guidance | INR700 crores | Achievement of this target, especially given past shortfalls due to unbilled revenue. |
| PAT Margin | Compressed (below 10%) | Sustained maintenance of 10% minimum and progress towards regaining 11-11.5%. |
| Cash Flow from Operations | Negative for 3 years | Turnaround to positive in FY27, as committed by management. |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.23 | Maintenance below 1.5 and the impact of warrant subscription and potential equity raise. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
37Bearishfull bear SMA stack · SMA20 -7.4% / mo · MACD − · near 52W low · sector +2.3pp vs Nifty (3M)
Technical chart
AVPINFRAdaily · 1Y · AUTO-38.0%Daily technical trend read
Bearish setupTrend is weak — long-term trend down. RSI 42.
- Price < SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200 — full bearish stack.
- SMA20 falling (~8.0% over last month) — short-term momentum negative.
- RSI(14) at 42 — rising, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal, histogram expanding negatively — bearish momentum building.
- 69% off 52W high · 7% above 52W low.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 70 · UNDERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 70 · UNDERVALUED · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Fundamental score breakdown
UNDERVALUEDWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Fair-value margin of safety is positive at 86.4%.
- Valuation contributes 30/30 to the score.
- Growth contributes 21/25 to the score.
Main drags
- Penalty bucket subtracts 7 points.
- Cash flow is weaker at 0/10; verify the latest quarterly trend.
- Balance sheet is weaker at 7/15; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Execution business valuation: EV/EBITDA plus order and working-capital risk
Capital-intensive execution stories need cash-flow and balance-sheet checks alongside valuation.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: +0 points.
Factor attribution
Modelled fair value
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
Mixed Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 32nd percentile of the scored universe and 39th percentile within Infra. Main check: cash conversion is weak at 28/100.
Healthy Trust Lite: Promoter holding is 62.4%. Key concern: Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-16 Cr.
Usable, but needs evidence. Treat guidance with a margin of safety.
overall median 67 · Infra: 39th pctile, median 64 · SME: 36th pctile, median 64
5 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
Mixed Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter holding is 62.4%.
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸ROCE is 22.4%.
Trust risks
- ▸Operating cash flow is negative at ₹-16 Cr.
- ▸Only 1 years of positive FCF.
- ▸Debt/equity is 1.31.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 3.46
- P/B
- 0.82
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.09
- Market Cap
- 146.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 27.70%
- ROCE
- 22.40%
- ROA
- 8.22%
- Dividend Y
- —
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 56.52%
- EPS 5Y
- 51.83%
- Revenue 3Y
- 57.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 54.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 1.31
- Interest Coverage
- 3.91×
- Altman Z
- 2.23
- Book Value
- 71.40
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- —
- FCF Positive Y
- 1/5
- OCF
- -16.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 16.86
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 62.41%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 3%
Financial History
Updated 5/9/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
Business-comparable names in Infra, ranked by similarity
Peers
Business-comparable names in Infra, ranked by similarity
Peers
Business-comparable peers in Infra — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.