APL Apollo Tubes Limited (APLAPOLLO)
Mid CapIndustrials stocks · Mid cap · NSE
APL Apollo Tubes Limited is a market leader in steel tubes, operating in India and Dubai. The company focuses on brand positioning, product innovation, and profitability, serving housing, commercial, and infrastructure segments. It aims for significant capacity expansion, funded by strong internal cash generation.
One read, four checks
75+ is strong, 60-74 is usable, 45-59 is mixed, and below 45 needs caution. These are research lenses, not buy/sell instructions.
Mixed fundamentals, while price trend supports entry. This looks more like momentum/speculation than a clean fundamental investment setup.
Fundamental lens: valuation, quality, growth, balance sheet, and cash flow.
low confidence · 0/0 claims checked
Timing lens: price trend and sector relative strength.
Rolling lens: recent quarterly delivery, not the latest single-result score.
Quarter ended 30 Jun 2026
Average · 32/100margin compression · Rev +8% YoY · PAT +11% YoY
| Metric | This quarter | YoY | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹5,607 Cr | +8.4% | -10.6% |
| EBITDA | ₹411 Cr | +10.5% | -19.6% |
| Operating margin | 7.0% | +0 bps | -100 bps |
| PAT | ₹263 Cr | +11.0% | -25.7% |
| PAT margin | 4.7% | +11 bps | -96 bps |
NDF means not disclosed in the current structured filing feed. It is intentionally not treated as zero.
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Business & thesis
Growth engines, tailwinds/headwinds, and risk radar from management commentary
Where growth can come from, and what can break the case
APL Apollo reports strong Q4 & FY26 results despite global and domestic disruptions, with 9% YoY quarterly volume growth, EBITDA/ton exceeding INR5,500, and robust cash generation. Management prioritizes profitability amidst market volatility.
External disruptions, including geopolitical crises, raw material shortages, and domestic energy issues, are impacting short-term volumes and creating uncertainty. While management prioritizes profitability and maintains long-term capacity expansion plans, the immediate operating environment is challenging, requiring close monitoring of volume recovery and margin sustainability.
Revenue by application
Latest issuer-disclosed distribution across 3 reported categories.
Market Leadership & Brand Positioning
Company's market leadership and strong brand positioning enable significant margin improvement despite volume challenges.
Product Innovation
Focus on product innovation supports margin protection and market differentiation.
Capacity Expansion
Long-term plan of 8-million-ton capacity by FY28 remains on track, including new plants in East and South India.
Market Share Gains
Industry leaders benefit from disruptions, gaining market share from unorganized players; market share improved to 65% in FY26 from 55% in FY25.
8 Million Ton Capacity Target
Long-term plan of 8-million-ton capacity by FY28 remains totally on-track.
Capex Commitments
Total pending capex plan for 8 million tons is around INR1,400-INR1,500 crores, with yearly capex expected around INR500-INR600 crores.
New Plants in East India
Putting up two plants in East India to compete intensively with local smaller players, with results expected in 1-2 years.
Lighter Structures Capacity in South India
Building new Bangalore plant (Malur 2) over the next two years to gain market share in lighter structures.
Market Leadership
Company's market leadership allows it to improve margins significantly even when volume prediction is challenging.
Product Innovation
Focus on brand and innovations helps reduce pressure on margins, especially in segments like Patra.
Strong Balance Sheet
Capex is fully funded from internal cash flows, enabling capacity building without leveraging.
Disruption Benefits for Strong Players
Industry leaders and strong players benefit from disruptions, gaining market share and pricing power.
Middle East Crisis
Impacted performance towards the end of FY26, disrupting global supply chains and reducing Dubai operations utilization to 40%.
Raw Material Shortage
Shortage of raw material steel from Indian mills and global supply chain disruption, particularly in April.
Fear of Price Correction
De-stocking from channel partners due to fear of price correction as steel prices have gone up significantly.
Energy Crisis in India
Impacted volumes in March due to gas shortage, causing temporary shutdowns in rust-proof and coated product categories.
Geopolitical Instability
Ongoing Middle East crisis impacts Dubai operations and global supply chain, creating uncertainty.
Raw Material Volatility
Shortage of steel and fear of price correction in raw material prices can impact volumes and channel partner behavior.
Energy Supply Disruptions
Risk of recurring energy crises (e.g., gas shortage) in India could again impact production and utilization.
Demand Weakness
De-stocking, construction site halts, and overall economic uncertainty can lead to demand slowdown.
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
Management accountability
What management said, and what results must prove
What management said, and what results must prove
Issuer guidance and extracted claims are tracked against later reported outcomes. Treat these as management statements, not IndiaPulse forecasts.
YoY comparison is relevant for assessing overall growth in quarterly volume and full-year financial performance (ROCE, cash flow). QoQ is crucial for understanding the immediate impact of recent disruptions, sequential trends in profitability (EBITDA/ton), and operational challenges like utilization rates and raw material availability.
Quarterly Volume Growth
9% increase in quarterly volume on Y-o-Y basis for Q4 FY26.
EBITDA per ton
Upward of INR5,500 per ton for Q4 FY26. Management aims for INR5,000-INR5,500 per ton long-term and INR6,000+ in current situation.
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
37% for the full year closing FY26.
Operating Cash Flow (FY26)
INR20 billion operating cash flow generation for the full year FY26.
Focus on Profitability
Management's current focus is to protect profitability and margins rather than just pushing volumes, given the challenging environment.
Full-Year Targets Intact
Management aims to protect full-year absolute EBITDA targets, with FY27 guidance of 15-20% volume growth, 20-25% EBITDA growth, and 25-30% PAT growth.
Long-Term Capacity Plan
The long-term plan of 8-million-ton capacity by FY28 remains totally on-track, with capex commitments and new product development.
Capital Allocation Strategy
After eliminating INR500 crores in net liabilities, management will consider increasing dividends or a buyback.
Numbers and claims to verify in the next filings
| Checkpoint | Current evidence | What to verify next |
|---|---|---|
| Volume Growth | April volume was 2.5 lakh tons. May target is 2.75-3 lakh tons, June target 3.5 lakh tons. | Achievement of the 15-20% yearly volume growth guidance for FY27, indicating recovery from current disruptions. |
| EBITDA per ton | Q4 FY26 EBITDA per ton was upward of INR5,500. Management believes this is sustainable and could be better. | Sustainability of EBITDA per ton in the INR5,000-INR5,500 range or higher, reflecting continued margin protection and product mix benefits. |
| Capacity Utilization | Dubai operations at 40%, domestic operations at 80-85% due to various disruptions. | Improvement in utilization rates for both domestic and Dubai operations as geopolitical and energy supply issues ease. |
| Net Liabilities & Capital Allocation | Net liabilities are around INR500 crores. Net cash balance is INR15 billion+. | Elimination of INR500 crores in liabilities and subsequent announcement of increased dividend or share buyback. |
Verification checkpoints are IndiaPulse research interpretation, not investment advice.
Trend score and candlestick chart
67Bullishfull bull SMA stack · SMA20 +15.1% / mo · MACD − · near 52W high
Technical chart
APLAPOLLOdaily · 1Y · AUTO+4.1%Daily technical trend read
Bullish setupTrend is constructive — long-term uptrend intact. RSI 69.
- Price > SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200 — full bullish stack.
- Recent golden cross (SMA50 crossed above SMA200).
- SMA20 rising (~13.1% over last month) — short-term momentum positive.
- RSI(14) at 69 — falling, no extreme reading.
- MACD below signal but histogram contracting — bearish momentum easing.
- Within 3% of 52-week high — testing resistance.
Mechanical read from the price + indicator series above. Not a recommendation — technical setups can reverse without warning, especially around earnings and macro events.
Relative Strength & Trend Stage
- Price is 14.0% above the 30-week proxy without full trend alignment.
- The 30-week proxy changed +0.8% over 20 sessions.
- The moving-average structure does not confirm Stage 2 or Stage 4.
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 52 · FAIR VALUE · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Valuation & score drivers
U-Score 52 · FAIR VALUE · pillar breakdown, sector model, fair-value anchor
Fundamental score breakdown
FAIR VALUEWhy this score?
Top U-Score contributors and drags from the latest stored fundamentals.
Positive drivers
- Piotroski is strong at 8/9.
- Quality contributes 20/20 to the score.
- Growth contributes 15/25 to the score.
Main drags
- Penalty bucket subtracts 1 points.
- Fair-value margin of safety is negative at -28.3%.
- Valuation is weaker at 0/30; verify the latest quarterly trend.
Cyclical valuation: normalized earnings, not just trailing PE
Cyclical companies can look cheapest near peak profits, so IndiaPulse flags value-trap risk separately.
Stored run vs live recompute
This shows the stored score trend when snapshots exist, and also compares the latest stored nightly score with a live recompute from current fundamentals and price.
Score history
12 stored score snapshots. Latest stored move: -2 points.
Factor attribution
Modelled fair value
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust score
Does management behaviour match later outcomes? Claim delivery, forensic breakdown, evidence depth
Trust asks: does management behaviour match later outcomes? Higher is better, but confidence and evidence depth matter as much as the number.
High Trust: Claim history is still being built. It ranks around the 99th percentile of the scored universe and 99th percentile within Industrials. No major sub-score weakness stands out.
High Trust Lite: Promoter pledge is zero.
Management behaviour ranks as unusually reliable. Still verify valuation and cycle risk.
overall median 67 · Industrials: 99th pctile, median 68 · Mid: 97th pctile, median 76
123 documents have extracted text, but claim history is not strong enough yet.
0 claims extracted · No contradicted claim yet
How to read this Trust Score
High Trust · low confidenceRead Trust alongside U-Score, result consistency, and technical trend. A cheap stock with weak Trust needs a larger margin of safety; a high Trust score does not make an expensive stock attractive by itself.
Forensic breakdown
Read low sub-scores as due-diligence warnings, not automatic sell signals.
Trust positives
- ▸Promoter pledge is zero.
- ▸FCF yield is positive at 1.2%.
- ▸9 years of positive FCF.
- ▸Debt/equity is 0.09.
Trust risks
- ▸No major Trust Lite risk flags.
Trust Lite uses financial behaviour only. Prefer claim-tested Trust when enough concall claims have later outcomes.
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Financials
Full fundamentals table and 10-year revenue / profit / ROE history
Fundamentals
Valuation
- P/E
- 50.80
- P/B
- 11.78
- EV/EBITDA
- 30.32
- Market Cap
- 62473.00Cr
Profitability
- ROE
- 25.40%
- ROCE
- 31.80%
- ROA
- 13.91%
- Dividend Y
- 0.38%
Growth (CAGR)
- Revenue 5Y
- 22.00%
- EPS 5Y
- 27.00%
- Revenue 3Y
- 13.00%
- EPS 3Y
- 23.00%
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity
- 0.09
- Interest Coverage
- 14.05×
- Altman Z
- 10.35
- Book Value
- 191.00
Cash Flow
- FCF Yield
- 1.15%
- FCF Positive Y
- 9/5
- OCF
- 2103.00 Cr
- EPS TTM
- 44.27
Shareholding
- Promoter Hold
- 28.25%
- Promoter Pledge
- 0.00%
- Momentum 52W
- 92%
Financial History
Updated 5/9/2026
Revenue
₹ CrNet Profit
₹ CrReturn on Equity
%Peers
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Peers
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Peers
Business-comparable peers in Industrials — ranked by industry, sub-sector, theme-tag overlap, market cap, and U-Score similarity. Green cells mark the best available peer metric in this table.