Evidence by cohort
Signal performance laboratory
Fixed-horizon outcomes grouped without removing failures. Medians reduce outlier distortion; MAE and drawdown expose risk that a headline win rate can hide.
Signal set
Sample
140
Win rate
20.71%
Median return
-4.51%
Median excess
-0.94%
Median MFE
+4.31%
Median MAE
-7.65%
Cohort drawdown
-34.37%
Evidence
30+ sample
8 Sept 2026 to 21 Sept 2026Regime benchmark: Nifty 500
| Algorithm | Sample | Win rate | Median return | Median excess | MFE | MAE | Drawdown | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| technical-ledger-v1 | 80 | 18.75% | -4.51% | -0.88% | +4.37% | -9.11% | -42.39% | 30+ sample |
| v4.3-runtime-valuation+playbook-ledger-v1 | 60 | 23.33% | -4.46% | -0.96% | +4.20% | -7.08% | -25.66% | 30+ sample |
Returns: Median is used for return, excess return, MFE, and MAE to reduce outlier distortion. Return greater than 0% at the selected fixed horizon.
Drawdown: Signals from the same publication date are equal-weighted as one cohort, then cohort returns are compounded chronologically.
Market regime: Bullish, bearish, or sideways uses the benchmark close versus its trailing 50-session average and trailing 20-session return, using only data available by publication day.
Sample discipline: Groups below 10 outcomes are insufficient; 10-29 are early evidence; 30 or more are established samples, not proof of future performance.